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We have to lay this down right?
Full Tilt Poker Game #22763889278: Daily Dollar (174485052), Table 492 - 50/100 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:28:08 ET - 2010/08/01
Seat 1: Egtime (13,342)
Seat 2: cabeza3001 (2,450), is sitting out
Seat 3: snigglebeach (2,500)
Seat 4: astronauta21 (2,700)
Seat 5: forboon (3,010)
Seat 6: wvuBuddy (6,615)
Seat 7: hakan_78 (6,416)
Seat 8: AKallin69 (2,757)
Seat 9: All-In Tom 64 (10,962)
wvuBuddy posts the small blind of 50
hakan_78 posts the big blind of 100
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to forboon [Ad 7d]
AKallin69 folds
All-In Tom 64 raises to 200
Egtime folds
cabeza3001 folds
snigglebeach folds
astronauta21 folds
forboon calls 200
wvuBuddy folds
hakan_78 has 15 seconds left to act
hakan_78 calls 100
*** FLOP *** [Kh Qs 4s]
hakan_78 checks
All-In Tom 64 bets 100
forboon ???
Seat 1: Egtime (13,342)
Seat 2: cabeza3001 (2,450), is sitting out
Seat 3: snigglebeach (2,500)
Seat 4: astronauta21 (2,700)
Seat 5: forboon (3,010)
Seat 6: wvuBuddy (6,615)
Seat 7: hakan_78 (6,416)
Seat 8: AKallin69 (2,757)
Seat 9: All-In Tom 64 (10,962)
wvuBuddy posts the small blind of 50
hakan_78 posts the big blind of 100
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to forboon [Ad 7d]
AKallin69 folds
All-In Tom 64 raises to 200
Egtime folds
cabeza3001 folds
snigglebeach folds
astronauta21 folds
forboon calls 200
wvuBuddy folds
hakan_78 has 15 seconds left to act
hakan_78 calls 100
*** FLOP *** [Kh Qs 4s]
hakan_78 checks
All-In Tom 64 bets 100
forboon ???
Comments
As is, gotta fold.
lol as in we have 3 outs?
Yes, you have 3 outs against a made hand, but A-high could very well be good, and the way you play the hand here is very player dependent.
I know this is a $1 tourney, so it's unlikely, but floating with position here will allow you to take it away on the turn/river, improve by spiking your 3 outer, or end up checking it down to win the pot.
Because there is a third player in the pot, it's a definite fold though.
BTW, I know I'm new here, but is there a reason I've got a target on my back?
Aaron
yes in a one dollar tourney im not likely ahead and need at least and ace he won't fold to a non ace......the question really is ....do i really lay down a 6 to 1 pot like that ....it just feels wrong.......
no worries just treating you like your one of the gang. everyone here has a target.
A wise man once said to me "It's not sewing class kid"
i can add rainbows if you want?
No worries, though that's not how I operate.
Yeah, it feels wrong, but as Vekked said, it's an easy fold, but mostly because there's a 3rd man in the pot and it's a $1 tourney.
If it were headsup, you'd have the options I listed above simply based on your position.
oh my lord.....it can't possibly be.... its a min raise and im on the button ffs. tell me you typo'd......please explain....
Well simply put, 1 of your cards is good, and the other is not. We don't really need to be putting chips in unless we have 2 good cards, especially vs. a range that likely contains many aces that dominate us, and few that we dominate. See reverse implied odds. Suited aces have good value in their ability to flop nut flush draws with an over, and hit nut flushes, but that's about it. Their value diminishes significantly as your chip stack decreases (as opposed to other reverse implied odds hands such as KQ/QJ which become less -EV as your chip stack decreases), since you only flop a flush draw a very small part of the time, and can never really feel comfortable with only 1 pair.
Suited aces have very good value when you get extremely deep stacked such as 200BB+ deep since the value of having the nut flush when other people potentially have worse flushes goes wayyy up, and often times to stack people 200BB deep you need to cooler them (or apparently cooler them, since many people just can't fold a flush when they maybe should being so deep).
If there were 2 calls ahead of you, you could maaaybe make a case for calling, but in a likely heads up pot, it's just spew. 30BB deep is NOT the stack you want to be flatting hands that are behind people's perceived range and you don't have the initiative. You should be folding T9s/76s type hands here too, maybe calling KQs/AJs/AQo/99-TT or so, maybe sliiightly looser depending on how loose the villain is, but that's somewhat standard, and you should fold the bottom of that range to a lot of opponents raising UTG+1.
yes and over the last week or so i think ive honed this, to much good poker not enough bet when ahead, fold if re raised, funny i can bank 3k in a my first year and get get any roi for the life of my now that i know 10 times more. but really i doubt this guy has an ace, i am likely slightly ahead pre-flop, and have position......soooo.....
You are behind any pair and most any A... When you say you have a 3K roi, where's the graph?
the feeling is these play play to many hands to have good aces most of the time, and although im behind any pair its really only by a few percent in most case...and thats trumped by my position.
anyways check my party poker stats last year i think i remember your a programmer or something...you can prob imagine the graph
hint: it goes up
No. You can't just try and soul read the guy and be like 'meh, nah I don't think he has an ace', we have absolutely nooo way of telling if he has an ace, or has no ace, or a big one, or a small one, all we can do is put him on a range. Maybe he has every ace in his range. Maybe he only has a few. Always try to think of the villain's ENTIRE range, not part of it. Don't think 'I put him on a bunch of stuff but probably not an ace'. If you think he's loose and plays a ton of hands, think of it like this: 'I put him on a wide range including a bunch of suited connectors, all pairs, all aces, and all broadways since people at this level value these hands regardless of position'. Ok that's fair, so then we plug it into pokerstove:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.678% 47.75% 03.92% 1046654608 85991998.00 { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, A5o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 48.322% 44.40% 03.92% 973110516 85991998.00 { A7s }
I took out A4o-A2o and left all suited aces, just assuming that he doesn't raise EVERY ace from this position just to be safe (maybe he does, but it's better to assume they're slightly tighter than slightly looser). As you see, we have 48% chance of winning hot and cold (all in pre-flop), so we're slightly behind his range. "But we have position!!!" Yes, we do, but we don't have something that's much more important when stacks are shallow and we are often not going to be playing 3-streets of poker where we have position each street... initiative. What do we do when we wiff flops and have A7 and he bets into us? Float every c-bet? Float some? Bluff raise some (which will cost us most of our stack 30BB deep)? I don't know, it's tough. Our stack limits us a bunch in this spot, so it's best just to let it go and wait for a spot where we're safely ahead of our range, and we'll be able to nearly print money just playing fit or fold, since we'll be making so much money by having a better pair or better kicker than our opponent on average.
Fwiw, our hand vs. a tighter range that's still fairly loose from UTG+1:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.842% 58.34% 01.50% 647319864 16666092.00 { 22+, A8s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 1: 40.158% 38.66% 01.50% 428920944 16666092.00 { A7s }
And our hand vs. a solid TAG's range:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.840% 65.62% 01.22% 368529672 6865548.00 { 66+, ATs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 33.160% 31.94% 01.22% 179374944 6865548.00 { A7s }
So we're pretty much behind in every situation unless it's an extremely optimistic one.
Think he said 3k profit, not roi.
ya sorry , i re read that, awful wording.....busy donking out of tourney after tourney. impossible to play after toning down the chew and doobies.
ok now you've misread me because of the simplicity of the question. im better than you think here. im not soul reading, i can read players well, and this guy is playing many more hand than aces, and likely not getting excited about a2 a3 etc.
what that means is there are more hands in his range that don't have an ace than hands that do....and all your math doesn't matter cause as we know there is more to a hand than preflop stats.....right.....
listen im not near as bad as your paragraph assumes......its just some of my game is advanced and some basics were missed cause im learning too fast.
No I'm not assuming you're bad by any means, I'm just saying that you can't just assume the guy likely doesn't have an ace, so that means you can call with an ace. That the point of the ranges and equity vs. A7s I posted, to show that even if he has a ton of other stuff in his range besides aces, A7s still doesn't do good. You can't just call with A7s because he has JTo and 54s in his range, since what matters most is that his range of aces dominates the ace you hold in your hand. Even if he's raising EVERY ace, A7s is still behind his range of aces. So on average you're going to lose money every time an ace flops, assuming that neither of you has a massive skill edge 30BB deep. This is just reverse implied odds, if more hands he has dominate you, you're going to be leaking money.
6-1 with what equates to junk, is still a spew.
Preflop...I am 50-50 with the call and I probably make it looking to hit my flush draw to chunk it in...go big or go home....yay, it's suited...but if only an ace comes, practice pot control.
Post flop...get rid of it...kings and queens are all over his range, as well as any pair...you are drawing to an ace...3 outs still isn't worth 6-1. He isn't gonna double you up if the ace comes on the turn and he doesn't have one... Get this whole "but it's 5-1, 6-1...blah blah blah..." shit out of your head...pot odds are only good if you have a valid draw. You can be getting 10-1, but if you are drawing dead....what's the point?
no worries i don't make this call, and although its true that its 5 to 1 or whatever, i know the implications of playing this. i have nothing, it just feels weird to fold. im pretty much fold outa turn if the villain says 'i'm thinking of betting'
ok i will sit on this and see what it does. but the question which people only half answered i think is am do you really fold to a min raise like that. perhaps its the hand and the way i got in.....i will wait for another hand like this where we agree preflop.
This made me laugh.
Darb, I would probably lay this down pre also ... Yes you could be ahead of OR, depending on his range (stats?). However, with him raising utg+1 you have to respect that as strong. Stronger than your ace anyways, unless you have history that proves otherwise. As others have said, 30bbs is not the stack you want to make this call. Not to mention if you call, you are inviting the blinds to dance for really cheap. And you need a near perfect flop to continue with your hand.
As played, this is one of the worst flops for your hand, so please fold. Min bet or not, fold.
thx, i don't have tracker software, right now but i can so he's prob running a vpip of 40-60....i don't respect his under the gun raise becasue he doesn't know what position is. i was expecting the blinds to call for a larger pot, i realize its multi way, but im not stacking of with a pair of nines or aces regardless. im looking to see a cheap trips, flush or flush draw or two pair....cheaply.
anyways i didn't give preflop stat thoughts because this wasn't about the preflop. i do lay this down everytime, just wanted to check to make sure its a snap laydown. i doubt everyone here lays down to a min raise every time they are completely dry
no more this thread.