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Can you pull the trigger on this?
early opener just lost a hand with 85o can't recall what happened in it
Full Tilt Poker Game #22265499535: $2 + $0.20 Tournament (171787229), Table 38 - 1000/2000 Ante 250 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:01:36 ET - 2010/07/12
Seat 1: kretzaces (30,909)
Seat 2: ZM_Tor (42,384)
Seat 3: PHILLNUTS (40,437)
Seat 6: MoneyTalks92 (62,766)
Seat 7: NE7885 (137,000)
Seat 9: forboon (27,030)
kretzaces antes 250
ZM_Tor antes 250
PHILLNUTS antes 250
MoneyTalks92 antes 250
NE7885 antes 250
forboon antes 250
NE7885 posts the small blind of 1,000
forboon posts the big blind of 2,000
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to forboon [2d Qd]
kretzaces raises to 4,000
ZM_Tor folds
PHILLNUTS folds
MoneyTalks92 calls 4,000
NE7885 folds
forboon calls 2,000
*** FLOP *** [4d Ad Ac]
forboon checks
kretzaces bets 4,000
MoneyTalks92 has 15 seconds left to act
MoneyTalks92 calls 4,000
forboon ???
Full Tilt Poker Game #22265499535: $2 + $0.20 Tournament (171787229), Table 38 - 1000/2000 Ante 250 - No Limit Hold'em - 16:01:36 ET - 2010/07/12
Seat 1: kretzaces (30,909)
Seat 2: ZM_Tor (42,384)
Seat 3: PHILLNUTS (40,437)
Seat 6: MoneyTalks92 (62,766)
Seat 7: NE7885 (137,000)
Seat 9: forboon (27,030)
kretzaces antes 250
ZM_Tor antes 250
PHILLNUTS antes 250
MoneyTalks92 antes 250
NE7885 antes 250
forboon antes 250
NE7885 posts the small blind of 1,000
forboon posts the big blind of 2,000
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to forboon [2d Qd]
kretzaces raises to 4,000
ZM_Tor folds
PHILLNUTS folds
MoneyTalks92 calls 4,000
NE7885 folds
forboon calls 2,000
*** FLOP *** [4d Ad Ac]
forboon checks
kretzaces bets 4,000
MoneyTalks92 has 15 seconds left to act
MoneyTalks92 calls 4,000
forboon ???
Comments
this was a hidden aspect of this thread, im getting 6 bets to mine on a call preflop, everyone is likely weak and from what i've read in books i can do this pretty much atc (with a deeper stack) , although its not the best since i'm at a shove or fold range, almost any flush draw will give me a good chance to take an uncontested pot.....not sure if thats ok buts its a cheap look at a flop which i get the first chance to shove.
Ideally yes, but 90% of the time it'll be 1 spot. I'd make a large wager the first guy folds and the second guy calls. Most of the time v1 will show up with QQ etc. and v2 will have A rag.
rarely as in 7 to one? i really think all i need is a queen. and flopping a draw is almost always an easy shove here im thinking.
funny way to put it. but i realize i put myself in this spot, just with the fullhouse out there i lose alot of outs. bonus is of course any ace always calls.
this is what i did and had to fold the turn, didn't see anyones cards.
v1 just showed down 85o last hands....he doesn't have tt+, ak etc here ...he has anything and is likely weak, and likely calling with qq anyways. v2 yes ace rag... but anything else he's likley folding...
the defense i read about is not on multiway flop and not with 10bbs....but if i flop q high im good most of the time here, other players are very weak.
the play im experimenting from is calling 1 raiser from the bb when getting stellar odds which i know alot of pros will call with atc, let alone suited.
here im getting 6 to one or something.....but im not arguing its a call , just was experimenting.
What books have you been reading that mention that this is an acceptable call pre?
Yea it's a leak. If you have a really amazing drawing hand but not a ton of fold equity on a shove you can sometimes flat stuff like 87s/T9s/QJs and the like, or pairs if you're getting set-mining odds between the pot and stack depth, but hands like suited broadway-rag just don't flop enough equity ever.
You might be good most of the time if you flop a Q, but think about it this way. You flop a Q roughly 18% of the time. Your Q is top pair about 12% of the time. On a Q73 rainbow flop (probably the best flop for your hand) vs. 2 pretty loose opponents you have around 50% equity.
Board: Qh 7d 3c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.913% 52.39% 00.52% 69115760 689312.00 { Q2s }
Hand 1: 25.007% 24.51% 00.50% 32335884 654712.00 { 22+, A8s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, 98s, 87s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 22.080% 21.63% 00.45% 28536210 592810.00 { AA, TT-22, AQs-A2s, K9s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
This equity goes down significantly vs. tighter villains:
Board: Qh 7d 3c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.360% 42.99% 00.37% 12456681 107094.00 { Q2s }
Hand 1: 29.533% 28.87% 00.67% 8364218 193102.00 { 77+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 27.107% 26.47% 00.64% 7669589 184780.00 { 77+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, AJo+, KJo+ }
That's if you got it in on the flop vs. their entire range. Now when you get it it in, it's only going to be against a range that mostly improves on the flop:
Board: Qh 7d 3c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.401% 36.08% 01.32% 69650 2552.00 { Q2s }
Hand 1: 62.599% 61.28% 01.32% 118296 2552.00 { 99+, AQs, KQs, Q9s+, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }
Or vs. tighter villains:
Board: Qh 7d 3c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 16.689% 14.86% 01.83% 20744 2552.00 { Q2s }
Hand 1: 83.311% 81.48% 01.83% 113742 2552.00 { QQ+, AQs, KQs, Q9s+, AQo, KQo, QTo+ }
Vs. 2 opponents getting it in vs. you with 8% of hands, you're gonna get called with around 15% of hands. If they're playing no more than 30% of hands, you're getting it in 50% of the time. With no more than 37% equity. So if this flop comes 100% of the time, and you get it in and get folds 50% of the time you win around 11250 chips on average (22500 in the pot x .5). When you get it in, get called, and win 37% of the remaining 50% of the time you win about 11932 chips on average. When you get it in and lose 63% of the remaining 50% of the time you lose about 20317 chips on average. 11250 + 11932 - 20317 = +2865 chips on average (or just less than 1.5BB) in the most optimal scenario. Assume that this is the flop every time you hit a Q, and every time you don't you fold, you loose 2000 chips 82% of the time, so -1640. That brings you down to 1225 chips profit.
So you make ~1225 chips assuming: every time you flop a Q, it's a Q73 rainbow board, you get folds half the time, and the other half of the time you get it in you have 37% equity and only 1 person calls your shove. Super unrealistic.
Re: a lot of pro's defending ATC... a lot of pro's are just bad/have terrible leaks in some spots.
Disclaimer: my numbers might be off cuz I didn't double check everything, but it seems roughly right given all the assumptions, someone can feel free to correct me, but I'm just showing how Q2s isn't profitable in this spot.
villain just showed down 85o, and both are weak mouses.....anyways....
what threads have you been reading that say a book said this is an acceptable call preflop....???
what about postflop, which was the op subject. but anyways i don't doubt its a leak, i rarely do this, but i'm not including the top hands in either of these twos ranges.
Post flop you have to shove because obviously it's +EV (as shown by my previous post). Also, if you look I took out AKo and JJ-KK from the caller's range. I don't see how you can exclude any big hands from the raiser's range...
because he just showed down 85o last hand....and without this read i wouldn't have played this....so this is the context of the hand.
neither guy has a big hand here preflop. small pairs at best.
And neither do you preflop..it's trash, even with 6-1 calling..treat it as such.
This was a major leak of mine for a long time as well...getting 5-1 or 7-1 in the small blind with junk..hit it and get stacked, miss it (most of the time) and waste loot. Without some equity, it's not worth the odds.
Amen. I used to complete the small blind way too wide too and leak away chips.
so did i ....then i stopped altogether for a few months..... now i pick my spots...and i think it really depends on how you play post flop but also your read (of course you have to be alot deeper stack than me here). for instance if i have enough chips and i knew the raiser had Aces (i realize you never know this) im calling this every time atc even though his hand crushes mine.
LOL
Vekked, who is officially the best player on this website from a disgusting results perspective, already made a golden post.
darbs not arguing this fact .....:mad:
Fold. I think of this as a disguised bet. I would automatically put Kretaces on A-9 or J maybe. Moneytalks probably K-10 suited chances are it's the diamonds and he is drawing to the anutz flush.
If a Diamond comes up on the turn or river or the board is paired ur pooched.
Too many outs if these have the hands I mentioned. JMO
Or maybe they both have smaller flushdraws, yeah, that's my read... One guy has J10dd and one guy is sitting with 85dd. Therefore we call the bank and get it in ^^'
Seriously though, unless someone shows us the nut flush draw or a boat we have to shove at this point. We want all the money in the pot on the flop so that we get maximum value from villains when we hit
Edit: Potentially we could minraise just to freak someone the hell out, that's always fun :P
I do not believe a guy who plays 85o from 2nd position at this point in the tourney bets after flopping trips but more importantly he's range is far beyond hands with aces. his bet makes me think he's paired. this takes away one out of mine i think....if he calls a shove.
no. chances are hes not suited, but if he is he needs that king of diamonds. if not hes only calling with an ace, which id guess he has, or diamonds. hed have a hard call to make with any other pp.
its true i do want the board to pair and need a diamond but i think there some fold equity here if neither have an ace.
If i didn't mention I called the flop bet and folded to a bet on the turn (non diamond). Obviously i felt it was a possible shove as soon as i did it, and am leaning towards that now.
EDIT: Actually i may try the min raise thing as it does seem fun.
Its the Dream Hand baby!! Play it like the NUTS!!
lol
Good post vekked, I think the shove on the flop is the best play now. Would you guys open shove or check shove? Personally I go for check shove as it looks stronger sometimes.
This is what im SAYIN!!! ^-^