Final Table AK spot

reibsreibs
in MTT Strategy
comments? I feel I screwed this up really bad, but final table of a $20 freezeout with 81 runners & felt my hand was disguised based on the fact that I was opening & 3 betting frequently. Do I fold to his three bet cause of stack sizes? He was very capable of 3 betting light there...

Blind: $2,000 / $4,000

Table Information
Seat 3: capel51 ($212,995.25)Big Blind
Seat 5: luther101 ($63,981)
Seat 6: honeyfairy ($52,976)
Seat 8: ettkrysstva ($38,864)Dealer
Seat 9: Hero ($117,183.75) Small Blind


Dealt to HeroKH.pngAS.png



Preflop (Pot:6,000)
luther101 FOLD
honeyfairy FOLD
ettkrysstva FOLD
Hero RAISE $10,000
capel51 RAISE $30,000
Hero RAISE $72,000
capel51 RAISE $242,595.25
Hero ALL-IN $33,183.75
capel51 RETURN $125,411.50

Flop (Pot: $393,779)

2H.png10D.png6H.png


Turn (Pot: $393,779)

2H.png10D.png6H.pngJH.png


River (Pot: $393,779)

2H.png10D.png6H.pngJH.pngJC.png




ShowDown:


capel51 SHOWS QC.pngQD.png
Hero MUCKS

Comments

  • Wetts1012Wetts1012
    Meh.

    Its blind vs. blind 5 handed.

    Big stack can be 3 betting really wide here so I dont think his range is specifically QQ+, Im sure AK shows a significant profit over time in this spot by 4betting/getting it in.

    Unless theres some crazy top heavy ICM going on I get it in and like it.
  • Richard~Richard~
    I'd probably never fold here given stack sizes. if anything I'd shove more happily given stacksizes
  • betrthanphilbetrthanphil
    I agree with Wetts here, nothing you can do, his range is way to wide her for you to fold, I would have just pushed it in, but same result. Just one of those hands.
  • GTA PokerGTA Poker
    plz
  • DataMnDataMn
    I agree with Wetts when it comes to going all in after the final raise, but what about instead of raising the hand from 30K to 72K (commiting us to the pot), we would call for the 30K and then evaluate after the flop??

    According to my ICM calculations, and using the FT payout tables, our equity is $298.37 if we fold to the raise from 10K to 30K.

    Our equity would be $333.53 if we raise to 72K and take down the pot before the flop

    Our equity would be $129.6 if we called an all in bet from the opponent and lost

    Our equity would be $391.82 if we called an all in bet from the opponent and won

    Assuming our calling an all-in bet would be a 50/50 winning proposition (since they have to know we are pot committed), then the equity of calling the all in bet would be ($129.6 + 391.82)/2 = $260.71

    We would need the opponent to fold before the flop 43.88% of the time to make the equity worth more than folding to the 30K bet. That would mean that he would have had to have been bluffing almost 50% of the time.

    Equation: 333.53p = (1-p) * (260.71)



    Also, if we are going to go to 72K, why would we not go all in instead, possibly reducing the chances of a call, since we are going to be pot committed anyways?
  • moosemoose
    DataMn wrote: »

    Also, if we are going to go to 72K, why would we not go all in instead, possibly reducing the chances of a call, since we are going to be pot committed anyways?

    ^this^ There is no value in going to 72k. The 72k folds him preflop just as much as the ship. You get away from this on the flop 0 percent of the time so the 72k is a useless bet. I either flat the 30k and evaluate on the flop, because of my chip position or I insta ship to his 3 bet.
  • Wetts1012Wetts1012
    DataMn wrote: »
    but what about instead of raising the hand from 30K to 72K (commiting us to the pot), we would call for the 30K and then evaluate after the flop??

    I dont mind it in position.

    OOP we have to get it in Pre.
  • DataMnDataMn
    OK.
  • Wetts1012Wetts1012
    Look at the original HH.

    How is hero dealer and small blind?

    Makes a difference....
  • reibsreibs
    Wetts1012 wrote: »
    Look at the original HH.

    How is hero dealer and small blind?

    Makes a difference....

    My bad, I screwed it up when I edited it.... I hate the HH for winner...
  • reibsreibs
    moose wrote: »
    ^this^ There is no value in going to 72k. The 72k folds him preflop just as much as the ship. You get away from this on the flop 0 percent of the time so the 72k is a useless bet. I either flat the 30k and evaluate on the flop, because of my chip position or I insta ship to his 3 bet.

    At the time I was thinking I was good, and folding barely crossed my mind. However once the mouse clicked raise, I thought, "that was dumb, I should have shoved" ... but the outcome would have made no difference.

    Regarding the call of 30k and re-evaluate, I think I am going to try this next time in this spot. I didnt really think that flatting was an option, but looking at it now I would have saved myself a lot with a flat then fold on flop.

    Thanks guys.
  • Richard~Richard~
    reibs wrote: »
    Flat

    He's probably gonna have A8o next time <.<
  • syphilaidssyphilaids
    DataMn wrote: »
    Assuming our calling an all-in bet would be a 50/50 winning proposition (since they have to know we are pot committed), then the equity of calling the all in bet would be ($129.6 + 391.82)/2 = $260.71

    We would need the opponent to fold before the flop 43.88% of the time to make the equity worth more than folding to the 30K bet. That would mean that he would have had to have been bluffing almost 50% of the time.
    ?

    K.... I'm slightly confused, but you're assuming that its allways going to be a 50/50 proposition, which is pretty ridiculous.

    Given the player's hole cards and shoving range, we can put him on 77+, probably KJ+, QJ+ and A9+.
    There's a lot out there that we have crushed, and not a lot that we're flipping with.
    Given this I think we can get folds a lot less amount of the time and still be a profitable play, am I right?
  • syphilaidssyphilaids
    I think Shoving>minraise>folding>flatting

    unless you're prepared to c/c any flop..... but still.
  • Wetts1012Wetts1012
    reibs wrote: »
    At the time I was thinking I was good, and folding barely crossed my mind. However once the mouse clicked raise, I thought, "that was dumb, I should have shoved" ... but the outcome would have made no difference.

    Regarding the call of 30k and re-evaluate, I think I am going to try this next time in this spot. I didnt really think that flatting was an option, but looking at it now I would have saved myself a lot with a flat then fold on flop.

    Thanks guys.

    NO.

    Never flat here out of position. You get blown off of too many flops where you're ahead.

    In position flatting isnt terrible, but I think shoving is your best option.
  • betrthanphilbetrthanphil
    With the chips stacks how they are its an easy push for me everytime after he makes it 30k. Ill say 7 out of 10 times we have him killed, 2 times we are raising where some hands he will fold to the push. Rarely are we killed here. Easy push, cant be made if you lose, its how the game goes sometimes. PUSH!!!!
  • reibsreibs
    Wetts1012 wrote: »
    NO.

    Never flat here out of position. You get blown off of too many flops where you're ahead.

    In position flatting isnt terrible, but I think shoving is your best option.


    Right, ok still learning here.... obv.
  • HammerDadHammerDad
    I shove to his 3 bet. Stacks are going in regardless of the flop. So may as well go with it now and hope he has AQ or something.
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