Bottom set on Draw Heavy Flop

STR82ACE

Hit the set but I don't like the re raise here at all. Even if he's drawing, its a race.




Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 3:spade:, 3
UTG folds, UTG1 raises to $0.40, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.40, CO folds, BU calls $0.40, 2 folds.

Flop: ($1.50) 9:diamond:, 3:club:, J:diamond: (3 players)
UTG1 checks, Hero bets $1.50, BU raises to $4.50, UTG1 folds, Hero raises to $11.25, BU raises to $32.07 (All-In), Hero ??

Unknown

seriously...? with a straight flush draw you still have him decently beat. i've been playing sets without worry of set over set for months and only came across it 2 3 times max. 90% of the time he shows aj or qq+ and you have him demolished. the rest he can show quads aces for all i care and take whats left.

anyways ya 9's or j's but make the call anyways.

compuease

I can't fold this either, easily could be top 2 pr or combo draw here. How much did you have left to call?

STR82ACE

We were both large stacks, about 200bb each at this point. I'm thinking at best he's drawing, at worst, he got a better set. I seriously considered folding here based on either being way behind or racing. I couldn't put him on AKo, KK, QQ either on the read I had on him. He wouldn't re raise/push here.

westside8

Assuming you have him covered - you're calling $21~ into a $50~ pot getting almost 2.5 to 1.

Assigning him the range of 99, JJ+, J9 and T8s, you still have an equity of 70% with your bottom set. EVEN if his hand is only JJ, 99, J9 and T8s, you still have a 55% equity here. You can't fold

ReefAquarium

Call,

The pot is big.
You have a set.
You can't put him on "Only oversets"

Call.

Wetts1012

I would like to wager the maximum amount.

STR82ACE

I didn't see him playing an overset so aggressively on the flop, most likely drawing, just surprised he was aggressive enough to put it all on the line here.

BU raises to $32.07 (All-In)[/color], Hero calls $20.82.

Turn: ($65.64) T:club:
River: ($65.64) 2:club: [color:blue](1 players)[/color]

He showed KdQd and hit his gutshot on the turn. I ran the hand through an equity program and I had a lot more equity than I thought originally. I was almost sure we were racing, but on the flop I made the right decision after all.

Guess I was more result oriented than anything else. Thanks all

syphilaids

STR82ACE wrote: »

I didn't see him playing an overset so aggressively on the flop, most likely drawing, just surprised he was aggressive enough to put it all on the line here.

with his hand I ship 100% of the time. It really sucks when he runs into a set for him, as then he only has what maybe 40% equity?
But a gutshot SF draw with 2 overs is a huge hand and i'll go to war with it. Think how much equity he has against any J, QQ, etc. even 2 pair combos he still has 12 outs. If you add on the fact you might fold to his shove its a +ev play imo.

STR82ACE

This hand tracking program I'm using still has some issues with it, and I never noticed that I didn't put up the villain stats of this hand. I guess when I say his pushed surprised me was that he was a 12/6/103 player, so I was NOT expecting a push from him on any kind of draw. Usually with that TAG type of player, I suspect more a call and see move over a push w/o the nuts.

Like I said, think I was more result oriented when I posted this hand than anything else, and starting to question if calling his push was the right move considering. Before I ran the hand through my equity software, I suspected either being dominated by a higher set, or raising again AKdd or something like that. Equity on the flop actually had me at about 65% I think, so a call was the right decision, just a sad ending to the hand.