What do you do and why?

Sharantyr

Lets play....


How would you play it and why?

PokerStars Game #41765194164: Tournament #303010925, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (400/800) - 2010/03/26 23:13:43 ET
Table '303010925 269' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: vincevegas33 (25034 in chips)
Seat 2: BettingBoris (62546 in chips)
Seat 3: denis478 (20129 in chips)
Seat 4: napoleonfr74 (60586 in chips)
Seat 5: WELSHWALES (17550 in chips)
Seat 6: pcobblmt (30182 in chips)
Seat 7: ReidJ (41103 in chips)
Seat 8: Remnant 63 (31388 in chips)
Seat 9: Sharantyr (34169 in chips)
vincevegas33: posts the ante 75
BettingBoris: posts the ante 75
denis478: posts the ante 75
napoleonfr74: posts the ante 75
WELSHWALES: posts the ante 75
pcobblmt: posts the ante 75
ReidJ: posts the ante 75
Remnant 63: posts the ante 75
Sharantyr: posts the ante 75
ReidJ: posts small blind 400
Remnant 63: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sharantyr [6h 6s]
Sharantyr: calls 800
vincevegas33: folds
BettingBoris: raises 2400 to 3200
denis478: folds
napoleonfr74: folds
WELSHWALES: folds
pcobblmt: folds
ReidJ: folds
Remnant 63: folds
Sharantyr: calls 2400
*** FLOP *** [7h 2c 5s]
Sharantyr: checks
BettingBoris: bets 4800

Richard~

I'd fold pre as that 4x raise is hard to handle and hard to range. We don't want to 3bet it since he's doing it in ep and we'd have to put A LOT of chips to do so. Neither can we flat since there's only about 10x the raise to win IF we manage to hit the set AND double up, some math:

P(flop set)= 1 - P(miss set) = 1 - (48/50 x 47/49 x 46/48)= 0,1176 ~ 12%

Even if the blinds are 3betting a really tight range against this bet they're still doing it around 3% (jj+ and AK) meaning that since there are two of them you won't even get to see the flop 6% of the time.

After this you need to range up EP villain and estimate how often you will get his stack if you actually hit your set:

If his range is something like 1010+ Ak+ AQs (just for the sake of argument) the math gets real annoying. Just to demonstrate the though let's say you alway hit your set on a LOW flop where he's always doubling you up with all his pair type hands.
His range consists of 16 combinations of AK (4 aces, 4 kings), 4 combinations of AQs and 30 combinations of pairs (4 x 3 / 2 combos x 5 pairs) meaning he'll double you up with:

#pair combos / tot #combos = 30/50 = 60%

Now we have all the numbers we need to see what we need in our stack. We start by thinking he's gonna double us up 100% of the times and then we go:

"oops, we might not see the flop often since the blinds may 3bet 6% of the times":

100% x 0,94 = 94%

"fine, we'll double up 94% of the times ^_^...oh wait, we don't hit our set much":

94% x 0,12 = 11,28%

"meh, 11,28% seems a bit low, I liked 100 better <.< oh wait, he doesn't double us up more than 60% of those times":

11,28 x 0,6 = 6,8%

meaning that you'll need at least

100%/6,8% =
14,7 x his raise in your stack to make it a breakeven play, even more to show a decent profit.



On the flop I go "oops, I shouldn't have called pre, let's fold since he's gonna have us beat 60% of the times" and then I fold.

Hope this helped you some




Edit: Some final thoughts: probability of blinds 3betting is in fact

1 - P(no 3bet) = 1 - 0,97^2 but I'm too lazy to change that.

Also, pot odds wise we need a bit less chips to setmine profitably since he's gonna have air some of the time when we don't flop a set (AK, AQ type hands) but in reality we'll just be cbet off off those spots.

Ranges need some adjustment, I assigned him a really tight range but in reality I think his range is more polarized and contain a bit of air to. The 4x from EP play is fairly new but you really start to see it more and more

Unknown

no need to get that complicated chard. your utg so not a good position, with low pp your looking to hit your set on flop or fold post flop. i like to lay down early position with low pp to show myself im tighter than most. if i play i look for my set and fold to a post flop bet. also if im play pp's then im only doing so if i can see the flop cheap which you can't.....and i rarely rarely limp and never from early position.

ReefAquarium

Sharantyr wrote: »

Lets play....


How would you play it and why?

PokerStars Game #41765194164: Tournament #303010925, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (400/800) - 2010/03/26 23:13:43 ET
Table '303010925 269' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: vincevegas33 (25034 in chips)
Seat 2: BettingBoris (62546 in chips)
Seat 3: denis478 (20129 in chips)
Seat 4: napoleonfr74 (60586 in chips)
Seat 5: WELSHWALES (17550 in chips)
Seat 6: pcobblmt (30182 in chips)
Seat 7: ReidJ (41103 in chips)
Seat 8: Remnant 63 (31388 in chips)
Seat 9: Sharantyr (34169 in chips)
vincevegas33: posts the ante 75
BettingBoris: posts the ante 75
denis478: posts the ante 75
napoleonfr74: posts the ante 75
WELSHWALES: posts the ante 75
pcobblmt: posts the ante 75
ReidJ: posts the ante 75
Remnant 63: posts the ante 75
Sharantyr: posts the ante 75
ReidJ: posts small blind 400
Remnant 63: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sharantyr [6h 6s]
Sharantyr: calls 800
vincevegas33: folds
BettingBoris: raises 2400 to 3200
denis478: folds
napoleonfr74: folds
WELSHWALES: folds
pcobblmt: folds
ReidJ: folds
Remnant 63: folds
Sharantyr: calls 2400
*** FLOP *** [7h 2c 5s]
Sharantyr: checks
BettingBoris: bets 4800

I fold,

Stacks aren't deep enough...

If there was about 80K-150K effective stacks... then you can easily call.

Unknown

ReefAquarium wrote: »

I fold,

Stacks aren't deep enough...

If there was about 80K-150K effective stacks... then you can easily call.

ok are party poker games short stack or something. ill place top 10% without really going over 20 bb?

philliivey

I fold pre cause your first to act post flop, but 4x raise I find is always a bigger pair then 66.

Wetts1012

If youre gonna play this, raise pre.

As played, call pre is ok because limp folding islol bad.

Call Flop bet.

Whats next.

Richard~

Oh, we limp/called? ^^' That's different then. I still fold, if you were gonna do something you should have done so pre instead of going into check/call mode

ReefAquarium

ReefAquarium wrote: »

I fold,

Stacks aren't deep enough...

If there was about 80K-150K effective stacks... then you can easily call.

darbday wrote: »

ok are party poker games short stack or something. ill place top 10% without really going over 20 bb?

Your post doesn't make sense to me.

Unknown

ReefAquarium wrote: »

Your post doesn't make sense to me.

at 80,000 chips with the big blinds at 800 your looking at 80BB. its seems to me i rarely get over 20bb?

ps, dont feel bad either, my posts barely make sense to me either.

Sharantyr

Ok, so now that I have a few answers on the hand itself...here is some more info. I had not been at the table very long, but long enough to see this same player 4bet pre atleast 4 or 5 times. I limped with the sixes with the intention ofcourse to hopefully see a cheap flop, and he does it again. I did almost instafold but I didn't think this was the time to hit that button too fast. Against everything I knew I should do in my head, I went with my gut and called, hoping for my set or atleast a flop like the one I got. I could have bet out instead of checking the flop, but I thought I could make this decision easier if I got to see how much his continuation bet was, in this case about half the pot This is not something I would usually do, however in this instance, my gut was right....ridicule and reprimand me all you want!!


PokerStars Game #41765194164: Tournament #303010925, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (400/800) - 2010/03/26 23:13:43 ET
Table '303010925 269' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: vincevegas33 (25034 in chips)
Seat 2: BettingBoris (62546 in chips)
Seat 3: denis478 (20129 in chips)
Seat 4: napoleonfr74 (60586 in chips)
Seat 5: WELSHWALES (17550 in chips)
Seat 6: pcobblmt (30182 in chips)
Seat 7: ReidJ (41103 in chips)
Seat 8: Remnant 63 (31388 in chips)
Seat 9: Sharantyr (34169 in chips)
vincevegas33: posts the ante 75
BettingBoris: posts the ante 75
denis478: posts the ante 75
napoleonfr74: posts the ante 75
WELSHWALES: posts the ante 75
pcobblmt: posts the ante 75
ReidJ: posts the ante 75
Remnant 63: posts the ante 75
Sharantyr: posts the ante 75
ReidJ: posts small blind 400
Remnant 63: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sharantyr [6h 6s]
Sharantyr: calls 800
vincevegas33: folds
BettingBoris: raises 2400 to 3200
denis478: folds
napoleonfr74: folds
WELSHWALES: folds
pcobblmt: folds
ReidJ: folds
Remnant 63: folds
Sharantyr: calls 2400
*** FLOP *** [7h 2c 5s]
Sharantyr: checks
BettingBoris: bets 4800
Sharantyr: raises 26094 to 30894 and is all-in
BettingBoris: folds
Uncalled bet (26094) returned to Sharantyr
Sharantyr collected 17875 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 17875 | Rake 0
Board [7h 2c 5s]
Seat 1: vincevegas33 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: BettingBoris folded on the Flop
Seat 3: denis478 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: napoleonfr74 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: WELSHWALES folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: pcobblmt (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: ReidJ (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: Remnant 63 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: Sharantyr collected (17875)

Richard~

Meh, that read changes everything about this spot <.<

With this read I might even minraise-get it in against his cbet or check-call over and over again (I like the check call myself, but it's riskier), this shove is a bit silly since you're probably not getting value from worse or getting many better hands to fold

Sharantyr

I would rather have him make the decision right there. Atleast in this instance.

Richard~

Why's that? If you've already decided to get it in anyway at least give him a chance to make a bad call or a bad shove