is it every good to call when short stacked(15BB or under)
been working on my short stack game and realised that if i'm blinds or under and i'm going to raise i need to go all in, as if they reraise me all in i will have the correct odds to call. when antes are applied i should go push/fold mode earlier.
however, what about calling a hand? is this always a bad mood? and if so, why? of course it may be acceptable to call if you have a monster hand and wish to trap players.
when a player has 6 bb or less then calling is a non profitable move, unless they are going to add some all in bluffs on the flop. i worked out some math behind it but i doupt you guys would be interested so i'll omit it.
please give me a detailed answer with some good reasoning, i need to understand the mechanics and not just that calling is bad. thanks in advance!
however, what about calling a hand? is this always a bad mood? and if so, why? of course it may be acceptable to call if you have a monster hand and wish to trap players.
when a player has 6 bb or less then calling is a non profitable move, unless they are going to add some all in bluffs on the flop. i worked out some math behind it but i doupt you guys would be interested so i'll omit it.
please give me a detailed answer with some good reasoning, i need to understand the mechanics and not just that calling is bad. thanks in advance!
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done this couple times that has worked out nicely, usually ends up when I have a monster hand PF AA, KK, QQ. only reason I ended up doing it because I had good notes on the player raising every pot. factor in him continuation betting on the flop, doubling up is inevitable.
This sounds really wierd, wouldn't recommend it unless someone elaborates waaay more. Shoving any A is just a huge leak
Usually in this situation there are antes (and I'm really assuming there are) so your pot odds are goign to be around 6-1. Given those odds you can almost smooth call with ATC as there is no one left to act.
Obviously we're hoping for a miracle, but with the pot and implied odds we have the call is worth while. I'll ship TP, MP on very dry boards, and draws where i have around 10 outs.
What I said before is the only time I will smooth call. Did that clear it up a bit?
I still don't like reshipping most aces though since they play poorly against villains calling range, maybe if there were more chips in the pot to justify getting it in with less equity against villains range.
Personally I'll reship anything that plays well against the range I'm called by
Ok, so let's make a scenario: let's say that I'm at my local venue, I've got 13BB and am the big blind. They're were 5 limpers and I look down at J10o. Ok, their is 3 options:
1) Fold. This move has a EV of 0. Obvious, huh? The good thing to this is that you could potentially get a better hand to make a move. Not going to focus on this though
2) Call. Ok, now this part is going to be quite dodgy; hopefully it is reasonably accurate. At this particular venue they call quite lightly, so I doubt moving all here would be a profitable move. 2/3rds of the time I will miss entirely. The 1/3rd of the time I do hit I'll bet 2.5 blinds. I expect most players would call if they hit any piece of the board, such is most of these players nature. Therefore, 5x1/3 of the time players will call. Therefore, 10.2 will be on the turn on average(6 from blinds, 4.2 from calls[5/3 *2.5 =4.2]). If I bet again they'd either fold , or call me till the end. So, if they fold, I'll make on average 3.4 (10.2*1/3=3.4). If they call till the end, I reckon I'd be ahead more than 50% of the time. I could do lots of math to figure out how often they'd call till the end and when they do, how often I'd beat them, but I'll see what you guys think first.Let's say I'd win 60% of the time. If they did call till the end I would make 17.52 on average (I have 13BB. Called once, then raised 2.5. Therefore I'd have 9.5BB left when there's 10.2 in the pot. Let's say one player call till the end. 10.2 +9.5+9.5=29.2 29.2*.6=17.52)
Actually, the all in EV is probably a little less, as I did not count in when I call and miss a flop, that would reduce my stake until I actually hit.
3) Ok, now for going all in. They call all sorts of stuff here. I reckon that they'd:
call suited connectors from 34 till 89, raise the rest
call all aces, raise from A8 onwards
call all kings, raise from K9 onwards
call all queens, raise from Q9 onwards
call all jacks, raise from J9 onwards
call all pockets, raise from 77 onwards
Now that I am going over this, I'd reckon they'd call more hands than that and raise much less, which makes errors in the data.
I think they'd call an all in with:
A5-A8
K-6-9
Q9
22-77
Therefore, each player would fold 2/3rds of the time (did it through combination's; going to skip some of the math. If you are actually interested then ask and I'll add how I did it.) Therefore, on average I'll get 2 callers. This is flawed though; they are less likely to call my all in if someone else has already done that, and I havn't factored in image whatsoever; when I'm justing starting to go into push/fold mode, people's calling range would be MUCH higher, but after I have abused it a fair bit they tend to call me this lightly. I guess for this scenario we can presume that I have being pushing a lot.
Ok, now I did some more math that I will omit, but J10 suprisingly has 50% equity against they're calling range. This to is flawed as it is presuming that people are not slow playing monsters, and I think players would probably raise less of those hands and call more of them, which makes my equity lower. Let's say then that my equity is 45%, and that if one player calls my all in another won't call it. Therefore, I'll get called 2/3rds of the time.
When they fold I'll make 5 BB. This happens 1/3rd of the time so I will make 5/3 BB from stealing. When they call I'll make 30*.45*2/3, which is 9. So, from going all in I'd make 5/3+9 which equals 14.3, so approximately 14BB on average.
So, If I call I'll make 3.4BB on average if I don't get much action, and 17.5BB If I do. If I go all in, I'd make 14BB on average.
This is obviously quite rough; I think the players don't call/limp that lightly, I just probably notice it more when someone does call really lightly. I should also work out how often that they would call an all in if they call the turn, so that I can compare the numbers. However, by doing this I think that if I have been raising all in a little too much then I should slow down and play mediocre hands in decent position. This will help disguise a monster too if I want to slow play.
Obviously, this probably won't apply to most of you guys as you probably don't play with these sorts of players. Still, let me know what you think. I am going to play at the local venue in a few hours so I'll take note of what cards they limp with and what they call with.
what on earth was that about? are you trying to insult me or something?
btw, by chance ween happens to be one of my favorite bands
Edit: Read some. If they are that bad why not exploit them with actual hands instead of being a shove monkey?
I think thats all the math you need.
no...no you won't. if you go all in, you will lose money in the long run. and i'll bet you my short stack that if you call you lose money in the long run all the time too.
EDIT: P.S. I stopped reading after 2nd paragraph.