mid tourney shove warranted?
a fair amount of limping has been going on...Aceselaine (solid player) has punished a few times.. everyone else..I have some history on..nothing out of the ordinary. about 1/2 the field left...
Game #22336892-71: $3750 Guaranteed DeepStack - 2 R#A - 100.00/200.00
Seat #0: acesElaine (SB), $12090.00
Seat #1: DennisBSPT (BB), $8575.00
Seat #2: sonictheclown1, $7605.00
Seat #3: colargolontilt, $7200.00
Seat #4: pokergolf69, $15157.00
Seat #5: SnowPlay1, $13863.00
Seat #7: Levasseur, $9800.00
Seat #8: bbbriggs71, $7143.00
Seat #9: yamutta (D), $23194.00
*** Blinds ***
acesElaine posts the small blind of 100.00
DennisBSPT posts the big blind of 200.00
*** Pre-Flop ***
DennisBSPT got hole cards [ A :dia: T :spade: ]
sonictheclown1 folds
colargolontilt folds
pokergolf69 calls 200.00
SnowPlay1 calls 200.00
Levasseur calls 200.00
bbbriggs71 calls 200.00
yamutta calls 200.00
acesElaine raises with 950.00my thoughts is she is punishing limpers with likely any two decent cards
DennisBSPT calls 850.00I call here because I figure any ace bigger would have raised as has been standard at the table.
pokergolf69 calls 850.00
SnowPlay1 calls 850.00
Levasseur folds
bbbriggs71 calls 850.00
yamutta calls 850.00
*** Flop *** Pot: 6500
[ 8 :hea: A :hea: 4 :clu: ]
acesElaine checks she normally bets out here and normally has something when called...I thought it strange..trapping? maybe...not her style though
DennisBSPT goes all-in with 7725.00 my thoughts were, again, bigger aces would have preflop raised...sets...maybe...but these guys have been raising with small and med pairs...odd, but true. They can't afford to lose a flush draw race if they want to make decent points on the leaderboard which is important to many here..
Regardless of outcome...is my thought pattern on track or....????
Game #22336892-71: $3750 Guaranteed DeepStack - 2 R#A - 100.00/200.00
Seat #0: acesElaine (SB), $12090.00
Seat #1: DennisBSPT (BB), $8575.00
Seat #2: sonictheclown1, $7605.00
Seat #3: colargolontilt, $7200.00
Seat #4: pokergolf69, $15157.00
Seat #5: SnowPlay1, $13863.00
Seat #7: Levasseur, $9800.00
Seat #8: bbbriggs71, $7143.00
Seat #9: yamutta (D), $23194.00
*** Blinds ***
acesElaine posts the small blind of 100.00
DennisBSPT posts the big blind of 200.00
*** Pre-Flop ***
DennisBSPT got hole cards [ A :dia: T :spade: ]
sonictheclown1 folds
colargolontilt folds
pokergolf69 calls 200.00
SnowPlay1 calls 200.00
Levasseur calls 200.00
bbbriggs71 calls 200.00
yamutta calls 200.00
acesElaine raises with 950.00my thoughts is she is punishing limpers with likely any two decent cards
DennisBSPT calls 850.00I call here because I figure any ace bigger would have raised as has been standard at the table.
pokergolf69 calls 850.00
SnowPlay1 calls 850.00
Levasseur folds
bbbriggs71 calls 850.00
yamutta calls 850.00
*** Flop *** Pot: 6500
[ 8 :hea: A :hea: 4 :clu: ]
acesElaine checks she normally bets out here and normally has something when called...I thought it strange..trapping? maybe...not her style though
DennisBSPT goes all-in with 7725.00 my thoughts were, again, bigger aces would have preflop raised...sets...maybe...but these guys have been raising with small and med pairs...odd, but true. They can't afford to lose a flush draw race if they want to make decent points on the leaderboard which is important to many here..
Regardless of outcome...is my thought pattern on track or....????
Comments
1. It's a really small raise from the opener, so she's not really punishing many limpers. She could be building a pot in case she flops big but that seems pretty odd. It's a wierd open if she's trying to punish people since she's getting involved into a multiway pot a lot so I'd really think twice about what it means.
2. You are about to enter a multiway pot. Holding A10 in a multiway pot is tough, as it turns out you're up against 5 different combinations that you really don't know much about so what are you hoping to flop? if you flop the ten the original raiser could snap you off with queens since a motive behind raising small (however wrong) is that she could be overconfident of her hand. If you flop the ace as you did now you could be up against A8 of spades or something similar that has you in terrible shape.
Bottom line is that you've put yourself in a spot that is really dangerous. If you shove you're usually not getting called by much worse (maybe a straight and flushdraw or something like that) so it's basically a negative freeroll. If you think you have the best hand maybe you could consider 3 betting pre? I honestly don't know what I'd do on this flop. As played I cry when the ace hits lol
Is this not a stage in the tourney where we need to make sort of move...a go big or go home time? 2 hours to the final table yet...and do we want to be scrounging to get there?
Black...I didn't do the raising..I flatted her raise.
I just ran it through ps. with Elaine at 25% myself and 3 randoms with that flop and I am over 50% equity...
I really felt I had the best ace because of the calling around the table...when that flop comes...I don't want a draw to see cheap, or at all. do I? If they throw it all in on a draw (without odds) they are making the error no? Yeah, there is the two pair...but A...they need to have an ace, and b: they need to hit the second pair.
Is my line of thinking a "losing" style though?? This is more my directive with this hand analysis..
No need to force the action with 43 BB's left either, you don't have to double up or triple up or whatever. You can flat to win a big pot multiway with 89s but if you're so convinced you have the best hand with a10 (or best hand with the others holding no pocket pair bigger than nines) you can 3 bet it pre to cchip up by taking down small pots. You defenitely do not want to find yourself in this spot in the first place.
As I said, you're never getting an easy double up when shoving the flop, if you're really lucky someone's gonna call you and you'll be even money to double up. Most of the times you get called you're gonna be crushed though. You could consider betting small perhaps, trying to thin the field and get them to pay off with weaker hands. You're still commited, but just maybe they'll call you with some fd's or something that you beat. Then come the turn, you shove safe cards and check call flushcards and such for the rest of your stack (unless you get 3 callers on the flop). That is the only way to win a big pot in this situation imo
when i enter a hand it is generally in position. And i raise to put people on their toes, get a little info and push others out of the pot. when i get a caller it polarizes there hand slighty for me. they know i'm tight and only play good hands. position helps me in the streets. when i hit the flop it is at the very least top pair top kicker. i believe all this puts me well over 50% to win when i decide to shove.
i don't believe this is a good hand to shove, it may have worked but id say about 1 in 3 times you will lose your tournament life in an unnecessary fashion. and ill point out that you basically justified russian roulette, you can't know from this someone didn't slow play aj+, you have no idea if there are made sets or even two pair. with more people in the pot it is just more likely. and i don't think you can assign random hands to people who called the preflop raise.
I ran it through Pokerstove, with elaine at 25%, which I think is very fair knowing her how I do.. and 3 randoms, which I also think is quite fair given the table at the time. And I still come out over 50%
Top pair, and what I am pretty sure is best kicker...there is something to be said for "tournament life"..and maybe this is my downfall...I don't know..but seriously..wtf? This is a 55 buck game..with still over 2 hours of play left in it. I guess, I should also mention this tourney also only pays the top 5...very top heavy. 25? or so players left. Again, my thoughts run along the lines of "go big or go home". I can join another if I get booted on this one..I would rather show up to the bubble bigger stack than mediocre or small...does that lend any credence to my thought pattern or am I still way off base?
Position doesn't matter here I didn't feel, it was a shove or check-fold flop in my mind. And yes, I like to play in position as well.
I get 5x my investment (my 1050) if everyone folds, which is 50% of the time
I get 3x my stack if I get a caller and win which is 25% of the time
I get zero and go home 25% of the time
75% chance of gaining a healthy chunk, no?
Someone help me here if I am out to lunch....
I had a very strong feel no one else had a big ace...or the hand wouldn't have happened the way it did...I would have folded. They play very ABC poker it seems and again, have always raised with bigger aces. I don't see why I can't assign random hands to a bunch of limpers??? I would have been more concerned had the flop been better coordinated...the only thing that concerned me was the flush draw...and that was part of the reason for shoving...so they have improper odds.. I could have bet half pot sure..they still wouldn't have odds, but then I am committed anyway..
Thanks for the discussion on this, and yeah, I know I am defending my thoughts...but I really need to see where/why they are wrong with what I "thought" I felt at the time..
Its a long the same lines as being able to push people off of certain hands. I mean you really need to be certain people will fold in spots. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.
Say what? ._.
First of all you're obv not coming out as a 50% favorite against 4 players so I don't really get this.
Second of all there's no way you can assume that all the limpers have ATC, they're not allowed to have suited one gappers or small pairs or maybe suited aces for you? maybe even players limping AJ or something
On top of this even if it was correct according to pokerstove to enter this pot you're putting in your stack with pretty weak hand. Your reversed implied odds are terrible on this flop when shoving.
You assume waaaay too much in this hand for my taste, each one of your assumptions have a pretty big uncertainty that could come back and bite you
Are we using the same pokerstove? lol... After the flop I still come up at just over 50%. Preflop is still 35%.[/quote]
Sure they can have suited one gappers or small pairs..Like I said..I didn't think 84 matched much of anything..I figured the odds of them hitting two pair are pretty minimal here..2%? probability....A bigger ace...nah, like I said they raise with bigger aces. In my mind, I have to worry about a pair of fours here..is that so wrong? Obv. like BM said...this is very situational..
explain please? To me, I win about 75% of the time here...
you can but the larger the range you give them the less accurate it is. so much so that it may give you the wrong answer. you can't just say their.range is atc so i can therefore push, because then if you never know what he has you can just put random and come up with a yay, meaning if you were never smart enough to have a read then its shove time.
Fair enough..but I am telling ya...my notes on these guys, while nothing out of the ordinary, tell me the range is huge..seen suited q2, 106, etc...call in all these limping spots..so how do we really define a range? 2 of the callers specifically were good for any two to limp a pot like that..
I don't think you should enter the pot but if you do, you have to do something with that flop. I wouldn't like it, but I'd bet out 2/3 of the pot to commit myself just in case someone wants to make a bad call.
It's a very marginal spot but if you play that hand it's one of the better flops you could hope for as you said, only dangers could be if the original raiser was opening 88 or a bigger ace or if someone flopped a set or aces up on you. I don't like the spot, but if your read tells you opener most likely don't have an ace as good as yours I guess you have to go with this.
I still wouldn't shove though since FE doesn't matter much, all the hands that have you beat call you and all the hands that you beat fold. I'll just bet to punish draws and hope someone makes a mistake
then we are on the same page and the thing is you can't define it more this is why there are better spots. and position did come to pay here for you, you are first to act so you don't get any info before you bet-sucks for you.
I feel I want the vig here..what if a flush draw behind me shoves?...then he gets the fold equity..I have to lay down..
Pre-flop call is marginal given the fact that to raise out of the SB and play OOP the entire hand in the worst possible spot, you won't be opening too light. And when you call, you set yourself up for a bunch of callers where you will be ?!? in the hand because you're also out of position unless you flop KQJ ATx TTx
On the flop, after the SB checks (I thought it was HU prev but Ninja Edit Skills) that player has likely given up. Time for a lead out, but you also don't want to completely commit yourself here in case you bet out (like 1775) and you get raises and shoves behind where you're now likely beat.
I'd just fold preflop imo.