Congrats to All_aces
Congrats to All_aces for his 8th place finish (of 916) in the Stars $11+R tonight.
After losing quite a few chips with KK vs AQ, he played a nice short stack game, remaining aggressive but not reckless, and giving himself a good chance to place in the top money spots if he could get a few hands to work with. A kind (though brief) letter to PokerStars typed into the chat window received no timely response in terms of a card rush, and he finished the final table in a very respectable 8th place. He can hold his head high that his bust-out hand was s000ted.
Way to go! :cool:
ScottyZ
After losing quite a few chips with KK vs AQ, he played a nice short stack game, remaining aggressive but not reckless, and giving himself a good chance to place in the top money spots if he could get a few hands to work with. A kind (though brief) letter to PokerStars typed into the chat window received no timely response in terms of a card rush, and he finished the final table in a very respectable 8th place. He can hold his head high that his bust-out hand was s000ted.
Way to go! :cool:
ScottyZ
Comments
Grats!
Actually, it's kind of funny that I posted this in the 'Ask Dave Scharf' section yesterday:
Early in the tournament, with the blinds at 200/400, I lost with AA and QQ in back-to-back hands and went from around 18K to 5K. I think it's pretty obvious what I was thinking about after those hands...
Mistakes:
When I had 60K, with the blinds at 20K/40K, I think I made 3 mistakes, and I'd appreciate some feedback. 4 hands to go until I'm the BB, the UTG big stack raised and I mucked 44. 3 hands to go until I'm the BB, folded to me and I mucked A6o. When I finally was the BB, in for most of my stack with 7c2c, 2 players limped to me. I should have checked and had a look at the flop, instead, I just moved in the rest of my chips preflop, with obviously no fold equity. I mean, obviously I'm committed to a certain degree, but if I just check and have a look at the flop and it comes like AKJ--which it did--with no clubs, why bother calling off the rest of my stack when I have NO chance of winning the hand? I could have simply gone all-in on the SB, and hoped to stay alive long enough for the other short stack to bust out.
Were all three of these things mistakes?
I'm not beating myself up about this stuff--obviously, with 60K and 20K/40K blinds there's only so much you can do, and overall I think I played a solid aggressive game. Just wondering if anyone would have played the endgame differently.
Thanks,
all_aces
Here's my 2 cents on the hand analysis:
Hand #1:
It's a coin flip here. With the big stack raising UTG, you either have to put him on a high pair or AK, or depending on how aggressive he is, maybe AQ or KQ. You either have to push all-in and hope that your 44 holds up.....which isn't likely....or fold. I like the fold here.
Hand #2:
Not sure if there was anyone left to act after you, if so, I like the fold. If I'm last to act, I'm moving all-in and hoping for the best.
Hand #3:
I think your analysis is correct. Waiting to see the flop was the correct move here. Give yourself one more hand in the SB if you don't hit anything.
Like I said, just my 2 cents. And keep in mind, this analysis comes from "bubble boy" who has a history of tightening up in the final rounds tighter than a Catholic school girl on prom night. Actually, come to think of it, my prom date was Catholic and damn....what a night :rolleyes: !!! So maybe that's not the best analogy but you get my point. Sorry to any Catholics who may have been offended by this post.
I guess I would have gone all in with 44 and hoped that I would be in a race situation. If you are up against a higher pair... oh well, that sucks. If that didn't come up I would have also gone all in with A6o or any Ace really. I also would have seen a flop with the 72 hand, fold on the flop and hope for anything the next hand that will get you another orbit. Once I'm that desperate I'm looking for any hand that has a reasonable chance to win and rolling the dice. Not much point in second guessing too much at that stage though... once your stack is that low there isn't much you can do except hope to get lucky and try to stick around for another orbit and a few more chances to pick up a hand that will get you through the next orbit, etc etc
As for hand #1.... I like mucking 4-4 when the big stack is raising UTG. I don't know the stack sizes of the bb & sb but if they are on the lower end, it could be a steal. If they're not on the lower end, I figure Mr.BigStack has a hand. If you were either bb or sb, I would consider a call but in mp I like folding.
For hand #2, I like putting all my chips in here. It's been folded around to you and at this stage any Ace is a good bet. You only risk being called by another Ace or if someone happens to have a premium hand, and there is nothing you can do about that. I don't think A-6 is a terrible hand to have in this position. With the bb creeping up on you, I like your chance with the Ace.
For hand #3, I'll go with the consensus on this one. With two limpers in front of you I'd simply call and take a look at the flop. If it doesn't hit you, which it didn't, you still have chips left to go all in with on the next hand when you catch A-6 again!
But then again......what do I know, You've probablly won more tournaments then I've even played
CHEERS!
2nd hand: Sounds like you were in mid position. Any ace short-handed is golden in my books. If no one calls, you double up. If someone does, you've got a very good chance to do even better. I'd have pushed here.
3rd hand: You don't have a lot of flexibility. If you check, you have 20k left. As you said, your raise wouldn't scare anyone out so maybe you were throwing your chips away. Would a 20k bet after the flop scare the others out? I don't know but maybe. Would another chance in the SB keep you going? Maybe - at best it would give you enough chips for another round and maybe you could finish higher. Ignore the suited part - 72 is a lousy hand period. With 2 callers, the odds are 75% that you lose. So I tend to agree that going all-in at this point was a mistake. I don't know if not doing this would have made any difference anyway.
No disrespect to you is meant in any of this. You are a far more experienced and I hope to gain some insights from you.
This is one of the reasons I love giving advice. It's far easier to follow your own advice after you've articulated it in public! So, I know what you were thinking, and great recovery!
Here's my feedback on the hands.
I think I'm the George Costanza of Poker, as I'm thinking a bit differently than the consensus.
When I'm down to 1.5 BBs doubling up is not my goal. I'm looking at a hail mary to at least triple up. So, if there are four limpers and I'm looking at aces, I'm limping. I need at least four BBs to be half effective. Then I'm looking to double up in a race.
Hand 1: I'm thinking the big stack can have pretty much any hand they would play from any position. The have the privledge of raising and taking the blinds and/or surprising everyone with a flopped str8 holding 75s. I don't think they play any hand -- just any hand they would normally, play from any position. So, I'm way more concerned about the players behind me. And, I really don't want to see someone behind me re-raising the big stack. So, I fold because I'm worried about the players behind me and this won't be the "hail-mary" which triples me up.
Hand 2: I hate ace rag as my all-in bet. It's a personal preference. I would prefer 87s or 56s, as I'll have two live cards when I'm called. And, when you get more than one caller -- strong possibility in your spot -- you have a good shot at them holding aces, giving you a better shot at trippling up.
Hand 3: I like your push. Two limpers, and you'll get full value if you hit. You're cards are likely live, and they're suited. It's exactly what I'm looking for to tripple up. Now, it's not good odds, but being a tiny stack doesn't offer the opportunity for good odds -- only getting lucky will give you a shot at this point. So, you've waited all tournament to get lucky -- roll the dice I say. If you hit with 72 why not get full value.
Cheers
Magi
After reading the replies, here's what I've gleaned:
I'm UTG +3 with 44, UTG (massive lead) raises. UTG was throwing his weight around, as he should, but nonetheless... here's a classic case of me being a small favourite or a big dog. If I was in LP I would have called here I think, because I most definitely needed a coin-flip situation. With many players left to act behind me, though, folding was probably the right thing to do, although Iron makes a good point about calling all-in here and hoping for a race. As mentioned, winning a race would have been just what the doctor ordered.
I'm UTG +2 with A6o. UTG and UTG +1 both folded, as did I. I think I probably should have moved in here, as do most of the people who responded. I don't like the hands I'd get called by--a bigger ace, or a pocket pair almost certainly better than 55--but beggars can't be choosers. Sklansky's advice in TPFAP about avoiding a bad gamble today when you might be able to get a better one tomorrow was going through my head, and I mucked. I don't think moving in with an ace qualifies as a 'bad gamble' in this spot though, and that's where I went wrong.
I'm BB with 2c7c and 2/3rds of my chips in the pot already. Obviously, I should have checked when it came to my option--they were kind enough to offer up a free flop to me--with the intention of moving in my last 20K if I had ANY chance of winning, and folding if I had NO chance of winning.
Thanks again for the replies. There were a couple of other close situations in this tournament that I'll probably end up posting in this thread a little later as well, and hopefully I'll get some more quality analysis.
Regards,
all_aces
Thanks dude!
Alas, no such luck.
This was my major concern with the 44 hand as well, as you can see in my 'simul-post'.
This is a great point for the A6o hand. Suited connectors generally do well (enough) in all-in situations. Earlier in the tournament--not sure which point, but late, maybe 4 or 5 tables left--I had around 8XBB or so, and JdTd in the BB. MP raised 4XBB, and it killed me to fold, but I did, for two reasons. First, I had more chips to protect, and secondly, I remembered a tournament last week where I called with JsTs in a similar spot (BB, shortstacked...) and was shown As7s. IGHN. Results-oriented? You betcha! But I digress...
Well... that's not exactly true lol. I was thieving liberally throughout the money spots--much more so than usual. But I see your point. However, don't you think that having a look at the flop for free is the right option here? I have no fold equity at all, so if I see a flop I hate, at least I have options...
Thanks for the feedback, magi.
Regards,
all_aces
Here's why...and I may be wrong. In the first hand you have 44 and are UTG +3 and the very next with Axo. With your stack I am not sure it matters too much what others have or call with as I think it more important to think about the likelyhood of getting dealt a bettor hand to put the rest your chips in with. I especially think this is true in your situation where you only have three (or was it four?) chances to draw a bettor hand before being pot committed. Your tourney turned to be exactly that as you end up pot committed with a junk hand and folded two marginal hands. I think that odds are very much against being dealt a bettor hand than 44 or Axo in your remaining hands before your pot committed.
The fact that you're questioning your decision is pretty good proof that you proabably should have pushed any of these hands.
Regards,
all_aces
translation: some people may have modified their view of the threads to the point where 30 or 40 post will appear on one page! -- I shall not conform! unless everyone else chooses not to!
I have to disagree strongly with the idea that 72s is a good hand to go all-in with short-handed. It is a dog plain and simple. You get three of your suit on the board very rarely and there aren't enough in the pot to pay you off. Furthermore, when you do see 3 of your suit, there's always a chance you'll see 4 and someone could have you beat with a higher card. Not likely, I know... It can't make a straight and it's top pair potential is almost zilch. I do not like it against 3. I do not like it can't you see? I do not like it, Sam I am.
As for the 'no disrespect' thing, what I am trying to say is, you guys know a lot more about poker than I do. I'm happy to chime in and I hope it makes sense. If I'm saying something totally off base, call me on it so I can learn from you, oh great ones.
I beg to differ with you on the average stack size. With 900 entrants/rebuy's and addons, I'd have to put the average stack at 500K. Not huge relative to the blinds, but bigger than your estimate. I aggree that you don't need much to have some weight, but I think a 4X BB is necessary to have some weight. Anything less, and you're going to get called.
I like SweetJimmi's comments. What are the odds of getting a better hand by the time you get the blinds. Given that your hand requirements go up with each hand it would be an interesting calculation. Figure pairs down to 8 (10*6) , plus AK (12), AQ (12) as decent hands -- that's 84 hands out of a possible 1332 or a 6.3% chance you'll get a playable hand. Now you have I think 6 spots, or a 36% shot at a playable hand. As your position worsens, the odds of someone having a better hand go up, so while you may get a playable hand, it's more likely that it won't be good. So, lets put the odds of winning at 60% -- you only have an 20% shot at survival by waiting.
In retrospect, the one thing I like about the big stack raising UTG, is that he's protecting you. No one will enter the hand without AA-JJ or AK. So, he's done something you can't with your stack -- that is thin the field. So, put the four players behind you at 4% probability of a hand that gets into the action (aa-jj or AK) and you get 16% shot at players behind you. So you have an 84% shot at a heads up pot against the big stack, who more than likely only has big cards (say 70%). So 53% prob of winning against big cards * 84% shot at heads up * 70% prob of big stack holding big cards, and you get a 31% shot at survival.
So, by my somewhat convoluted calculations you have a better shot at survival with 44, than waiting. Still not good odds at 31%, but there's not much room here.
Ah yes! But the theiving is not trying to get lucky -- you're actually getting good odds that the other player doesn't have a re-raising/callable hand. And, that is just good poker. At the end, you're really looking to get lucky.
Of course, 72s doesn't play well in most any situation if the chips are deep. Don't forget that he has ~15K after posting a 40K BB.
I guess the relevant question with the 72s is to either push it all-in pre-flop (which I like), check with the plan of automatically pushing post-flop (also okay), or check and wait to see what the flop looks like (gross).
ScottyZ
From a simplistic view, anyone with a 72o can spike a 7 on the river to beat a 44. Not so simple with 88, even less so with QQ. These higher pairs have a much better shot at beating a random hand. The higher the better, of course. So someone calling you has to at least have something decent to have a good shot at beating you.
Let me know if there is any merit to this strategy. I believe playing like this would make it much harder to win the whole tourney but given a_a's stack, I'm not sure how likely this would have been anyway. I still say 72s has a terrible chance of winning against 2 so I'd rather take my chance from the SB. But I'm beating a dead horse.
Of course, he pushed the rest of the chips in voluntarily pre-flop, which I like because then he'll get full value from the other players who would automatically call pre-flop, but who perhaps would have gotten pushed out post-flop by one of the large stacks.
Whether to push in pre-flop or simple check and bet or call later is a very minor point. But due to the size of the pot relative to the chips remaining, folding this hand at any point (even against the most disasterous looking flops) would be pretty bad.
ScottyZ
This is certainly a consideration. I guess a 4th (and still good IMO) alternative would be to check pre-flop and simply hope it was checked down to the showdown.
ScottyZ
With UTG chipleader raising it is highly unlikely they have any two and even more unlikely that another player will call any two.
I make 88 my cutoff becuase it's the hump card *** 2-7 (6 cards) 8 (1 card) 9-A (6 cards).
On the range of hands that call me, someone would have any pair, ace anything, or paint cards. For the any pair, I'm a heavy favourite for more than half the pairs. For the ace anything hand, I'm a strong favourite on 50% of the hands, and for the paint cards I'm a 53% favourite. with a pair of fours, I'm not over that threshold, same with presto to 77. And, as I'm getting a worse position my better hand than 44 must go up, as it's more likely the players behind me have a better hand.
If I make the decision to wait for a better hand, I'm going to be picky, especially if I'm losing position. For instance if It was folded to me on the button and I was holding 42o (with a_a's stack) I would have pushed in. I think a_a would have pushed in as well, and just didn't have the opportunity.
and here:
I know it could have gone runner-runner 7 7 or 22 or 72 or 27, but I don't think I had the odds to chase these perfect-perfect draws. I had odds to chase a LOT (like any club on the flop) but not that. So, I'm sticking with my opinion that IN THIS CASE ONLY, checking preflop and folding to a bet on the flop would have been the best play. As mentioned, if I see a flop I like, I act first, and there's no way either of them would fold to my bet regardless of their hands. Admittedly, the guy to my left could raise me on the flop, driving the other player out, but the disadvantages of winning 'only' 160K as opposed to 180K (or so) do not even come close to the advantages of having a look at the flop, and folding to a bet if I have an extremely minute chance of winning the pot.
Regards,
all_aces
But we are not talking about random hands here. UTG raised which will eliminate the random hands. I hope UTG has overs AK-Ax, KQ-K10, etc. and if they have a monster then say la vie I start hoping for a suckout. Remember that it will take a very good hand to call UTG after you call.
I think we're in agreement -- my response may have been convoluted. I said if you were going to play 44 when UTG raised, the players behind you would only get into the action holding AA-JJ or AK. I pegged that at 4% per player, and 16% collectively that you'll have someone else enter the pot.
Now, what are the odds of getting a better playable hand. That's where I said I'd be looking for AA-88, AK or AQ. I pegged that at 6% per hand, or 36% collectively until you get to the blind.
Cheers
magi