Calculating the flush draw
I think this is a 2 part question and likely requires a lot of what if's but see if I can get my thoughts right.
I have 2 suited cards, flop brings me 4 to a flush, lets say 9 handed table.
Generally what are the odds or percentage someone else at the table also is on a flush draw.
What is the math to calculate the odds their flush if larger than mine, I know this will vary quite a bit based on my holdings and the board, but I assume there is some way this can be calculated out.
I have 2 suited cards, flop brings me 4 to a flush, lets say 9 handed table.
Generally what are the odds or percentage someone else at the table also is on a flush draw.
What is the math to calculate the odds their flush if larger than mine, I know this will vary quite a bit based on my holdings and the board, but I assume there is some way this can be calculated out.
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so what you're saying is that after years of playing poker you don't know the answer to this basic question?
After the flop the are 4 known cards of your suit, and 1 known card of another suit, and 47 unknown cards.
The odds of one player having a suited hand in your suit is (9/47)(8/46) = 72/2162 or 3.33%. The odds of at least one of the 8 players having a suited hand of your suit is 8 X 3.33% = 26.64%
Im doing this off the cuff so my methodology could be wrong and im sure someone will correct me if i am.
generally if I am on a weak flush draw, and I hit, the strength of the other player's flush is pretty evident by the way the other player bets his hand.
Whether I call a raise or re-raise on the basis the other player may have a better flush really depends. It really depends on the size of the bet relative to the pot and also my prior knowledge of the player. I am not calling off all my stack with a weak flush but I may check-call a bet based on the aforementioned criteria.
I don't really think there is any validity in trying to calculate the odds of whether a person may have a higher flush than me. What I think is more relevant is the betting patterns in the hand and the tendancies of the player you are up against. This should give you more evidence as to whether you may be facing a bigger flush.
i can't check the math, but if its 26.64 percent then somehow you have to match it all the known cards from the flush suit and see what card the opponent would need.
and i always had the question that if say 4 others folded isn't it a high chance that 1 or 2 of their folded cards were diamonds?
This is why they say poker is a game of imperfect information. Calculating odds and counting outs will give you a pretty good idea as to where you stand in the hand, but will never be 100% accurate.
true but it seems you can work with being more or less accurate...
Yeah, no sense in knowing the simple/basic 3rd grade math behind the game that you play for real money...once again, kudos on your willingness to improve as a player and your deep understanding of the game. You've only been posting regularly on a poker forum for 5 years, why let any of the finer details of the game leak into your already level 5 metagame play when you can just simply lay down anything that isn't the stone cold nuts on the river to any kind of pressure.
ahh yes the other cards, thnks that settles that....for now.....id better put star wars back on.
Merry Christmas GTA. Wishing you a prosperous 2010.