How can I avoid this?
So I'm playing a 200-player tourney (there are only 15 players left tough), we're at blinds level 1000-2000 and the average chip stack is about 40K. I have 22K remaining, blinds go up every 15 min.
It is folded around to me in the small blind. I got two black 5's so I raise the big blind 4K more. He calls. Flop comes 4-6-8 with two spades. I think of it for a while and push in my remaining 16K, thinking my opponent (who is the table chipleader at the moment) might only have ace-high or some kind of crap (he's been playing lots of hands). He finally makes the call and tables K-4 offsuit, no spades.
Well, the turn comes a six and the river an eight, forfeiting my pair of fives and giving the BB the winning hand: 6s and 8s with king kicker.. ouch! this one hurt.
Would anyone have any advice on playing such "middle-strength hands" in the late stages of a tourney? Should I've went all-in before the flop or just called? Isn't the "all-in approach" a bit too reckless at this point of the tournament?
Thanks in advance!
Felix
It is folded around to me in the small blind. I got two black 5's so I raise the big blind 4K more. He calls. Flop comes 4-6-8 with two spades. I think of it for a while and push in my remaining 16K, thinking my opponent (who is the table chipleader at the moment) might only have ace-high or some kind of crap (he's been playing lots of hands). He finally makes the call and tables K-4 offsuit, no spades.
Well, the turn comes a six and the river an eight, forfeiting my pair of fives and giving the BB the winning hand: 6s and 8s with king kicker.. ouch! this one hurt.
Would anyone have any advice on playing such "middle-strength hands" in the late stages of a tourney? Should I've went all-in before the flop or just called? Isn't the "all-in approach" a bit too reckless at this point of the tournament?
Thanks in advance!
Felix
Comments
If you're going to play those (and I would with 11 BB's). I shove.....I don't want him to see anything he even remotely likes..
Push or fold preflop, and folding is the wrong answer.
Okay, I'm going to type this very slowly, because you're old...
THE
FUCK
UP!!!
LOL, now compuease don't start, he is under enough stress:)
If he comes over fold.
If the flop does not bring trips, give up the pot.
my play anyway.
If you're gonna play 'em, that's the key.
I'm in auto jam mode here.......my luck was about as good as yours, as the SB picks up A's and I'm out.
But, with <10 BB's you should be shoving here....all day, every day.
this
rofl I like this strat, never thought about it before
How you get 45%?
Pokerstove.
Anyone like or hate 7K pf...psb on flop?
In a tourney with some kind of play left I might advocate something less than a shove (especially when there are people willing to give away 25% of your stack just to try to miss the flop with rags), but with M=7 and 15 minute blinds jam your gold in and practice your flipping skills.
Edit: You're in SB? Break wrists jamming gold and then cry when you still lose to K4
And for the people who want the math breakdown on how this is profitable. BTW shoving any two cards from SB with 11BB is profitable, but that is a secret you have to learn yourself.
SB shoves 22K
BB calls with top 20% of his range.
Option 1: SB Folds -1K
Assuming you're playing on a decent site like Pokerstars where Antes are 200 @ 1/2K blinds
Antes = 7 x 200 = 1400 chips
Option 2: You shove for 22K
80% of the time, BB folds and you win his 2000 + 1400 in antes for +3400
20% of the time BB calls (66+,A4s+,K8s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo) <--which imo is very inaccurate, but you guys wanted 20%
55 will win 45.78% and lose 54.219%
EV of shove = [BB Folds] + [SB Wins All-In] - [SB Loses All-in]
= [0.80 * 3400] + [0.20 * .4578 * 45400] - [0.20 * 0.54219 * 45400]
= 2720 + 4156 - 4923 = 1953
Option 2 - Option 1 = 1954 - [-1000] = +2954
Open shoving nets you 1.5 BB
Poker is a game of volume + variance, and any edge you get, you should take.