End of Year Strategy Questions

Young GrimmYoung Grimm
in General Poker Chat
So here is the situation:
I run a monthly game and keep track of leaderboard points. I have taken over first place and have a small point lead. There are two guys behind me that could mathematically catch me, depending on their performance in my Christmas game (one guy must win the tournament, the other needs to finish top 5 with me not earning any points). I'm expecting a field of over 30 guys and it tends to be a wilder game since we offer a booze bounty. How should I play-I normally play pretty tight, they call me the nun's vagina! and secondly if you were the current 2nd and 3rd on the leaderboard how would you play?

Thanks!

Comments

  • blackmagiczblackmagicz
    I think basically you should continue you play your same game. I mean it go you this far. There is no need to adjust now. The 2nd and 3rd place players will need to take chances and hopefully have a good run of cards to move up. When you think of the probabilities you stand a good chance of taking home the title with no problems.

    I mean you would have to finish last and they would have to finish in the top 3 and the probability of both those events happening at the same time is highly unlikely.
  • SuitedPairSuitedPair
    If they play wild they might run well or.....they might crap out.

    Play tight until you see them with a stack that could threaten your position and then you will have to loosen up accordingly
  • MonteroyMonteroy
    Assuming the leader points prizes are worth a good amount then you should play even tighter than normal as all of your EVs go down quite a bit with all in situations. Think of it as this - would you go all in in a 3 way all in in a DoN on the first hand if you had 45% equity? In a cash game or huge MTT early sure, but here you have a 55% chance of losing the tournament, which makes it a fold for someone who wins at DoNs despite the huge EV spot in terms of chips.

    The other guys should play much more assertively against you, and a bit wilder in general (though not totally nuts).

    How the booze bounties enter the equation I am not sure...
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