Help
I think at these stakes I should almost always be folding here, unless I get some actual reason to think otherwise. (Ps this guys screename is just so awesome I hardly minded forking over the 80 BB's to his flopped set over my aces.)
PokerStars Game #36180285982: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10 USD) - 2009/12/03 5:32:35 ET
Table 'Eleutheria' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: I<3Tits(.Y.) ($10.15 in chips)
Seat 2: Javanas ($16.55 in chips)
Seat 3: Quinner777 ($8.25 in chips)
Seat 5: TaaviP ($13.90 in chips)
Seat 6: cosmin23 ($12.15 in chips)
TaaviP: posts small blind $0.05
cosmin23: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Quinner777 [Ac Ad]
I<3Tits(.Y.): raises $0.20 to $0.30
Javanas: folds
Quinner777: raises $0.90 to $1.20
TaaviP: folds
cosmin23: folds
I<3Tits(.Y.): calls $0.90
*** FLOP *** [4s 8c Kc]
I<3Tits(.Y.): checks
Quinner777: bets $1.50
I<3Tits(.Y.): raises $2 to $3.50
Quinner777: raises $3.55 to $7.05 and is all-in
I<3Tits(.Y.): calls $3.55
lauri8989 is connected
*** TURN *** [4s 8c Kc] [2h]
*** RIVER *** [4s 8c Kc 2h] [6h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
I<3Tits(.Y.): shows [8d 8s] (three of a kind, Eights)
Quinner777: shows [Ac Ad] (a pair of Aces)
I<3Tits(.Y.) collected $15.85 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $16.65 | Rake $0.80
Board [4s 8c Kc 2h 6h]
Seat 1: I<3Tits(.Y.) showed [8d 8s] and won ($15.85) with three of a kind, Eights
Seat 2: Javanas folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Quinner777 (button) showed [Ac Ad] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 5: TaaviP (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: cosmin23 (big blind) folded before FlopThe reason I think I should be folding most times is, how many players at this level are REALLY going to be bluffing in this spot often enough for me to shove profitably. I can see some aggressive draws maybe, total air maybe like 1% of the population. I think mainly in these spots I've just been outflopped and I should be done with it. In the 50 NL games, I'd expect players to do this with a wider range, such that I think I could actually shove often enough that I'd be ahead. But 10 NL really they're calling with suited junk, or almost any pocket pair and hoping to get lucky. What hand is really paying me off here besides a bluff? AK, and I don't even think AK plays this way. In this hand I was actually praying thats what he had, but no such luck.
Ps. As a side note, if we look at effective stacks...this is a pretty damn near fold. Considering that the most he can win from me is 8.65, he's barely getting the right odds to call with his 8's. Thats if I'm going to stack off to him. QQ here just folds, and KK is just sick.
Hows my personal analysis...anything to add/change?
Fwiw I think I will be folding this kind of thing in the future, when I'm fairly certain my opponent is not going away to my shove considering his bet sizing.
PokerStars Game #36180285982: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10 USD) - 2009/12/03 5:32:35 ET
Table 'Eleutheria' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: I<3Tits(.Y.) ($10.15 in chips)
Seat 2: Javanas ($16.55 in chips)
Seat 3: Quinner777 ($8.25 in chips)
Seat 5: TaaviP ($13.90 in chips)
Seat 6: cosmin23 ($12.15 in chips)
TaaviP: posts small blind $0.05
cosmin23: posts big blind $0.10
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Quinner777 [Ac Ad]
I<3Tits(.Y.): raises $0.20 to $0.30
Javanas: folds
Quinner777: raises $0.90 to $1.20
TaaviP: folds
cosmin23: folds
I<3Tits(.Y.): calls $0.90
*** FLOP *** [4s 8c Kc]
I<3Tits(.Y.): checks
Quinner777: bets $1.50
I<3Tits(.Y.): raises $2 to $3.50
Quinner777: raises $3.55 to $7.05 and is all-in
I<3Tits(.Y.): calls $3.55
lauri8989 is connected
*** TURN *** [4s 8c Kc] [2h]
*** RIVER *** [4s 8c Kc 2h] [6h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
I<3Tits(.Y.): shows [8d 8s] (three of a kind, Eights)
Quinner777: shows [Ac Ad] (a pair of Aces)
I<3Tits(.Y.) collected $15.85 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $16.65 | Rake $0.80
Board [4s 8c Kc 2h 6h]
Seat 1: I<3Tits(.Y.) showed [8d 8s] and won ($15.85) with three of a kind, Eights
Seat 2: Javanas folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: Quinner777 (button) showed [Ac Ad] and lost with a pair of Aces
Seat 5: TaaviP (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: cosmin23 (big blind) folded before FlopThe reason I think I should be folding most times is, how many players at this level are REALLY going to be bluffing in this spot often enough for me to shove profitably. I can see some aggressive draws maybe, total air maybe like 1% of the population. I think mainly in these spots I've just been outflopped and I should be done with it. In the 50 NL games, I'd expect players to do this with a wider range, such that I think I could actually shove often enough that I'd be ahead. But 10 NL really they're calling with suited junk, or almost any pocket pair and hoping to get lucky. What hand is really paying me off here besides a bluff? AK, and I don't even think AK plays this way. In this hand I was actually praying thats what he had, but no such luck.
Ps. As a side note, if we look at effective stacks...this is a pretty damn near fold. Considering that the most he can win from me is 8.65, he's barely getting the right odds to call with his 8's. Thats if I'm going to stack off to him. QQ here just folds, and KK is just sick.
Hows my personal analysis...anything to add/change?
Fwiw I think I will be folding this kind of thing in the future, when I'm fairly certain my opponent is not going away to my shove considering his bet sizing.