Odds/action on this hand

SkittlePoker

Delt: A9h

Flop: 6h 4c 5h

Two people left in the pot. I am short stacked and first to act. I have a very good feeling that the big stack did not flop a straight.

For those of you that have a calculator to determine the odds can you tell me how this hand looked? Anyone care to say when action should be taken?

SP

ScottyZ

It's about 2 to 1 against making a flush by the river, or about 1 to 1 against making a pair (other than simply pairing the board) or better.

ScottyZ

magithighs

I've got 1.86 to 1 odds of making the flush or 35% probability. It's the odds of the turn hitting a flush card + odds of river making a flush card - two flush cards comming (because of double counting).

Probability of A9h winning the hand against two random hands is 49.24%

Now if one of those opponents has a heart say the four, the probability goes down to 41%.

If two hearts are out the odds don't go down too much. You have 40% probability of winning.

If there's a middling pair with a heart, say T's, you have a 40% probability of winning.

So, with your A9 higher than the board it provides a few more ways to win, other than the flush. You can hit one of those cards and take down the pot.

Unless you put your opponent on a straight or a set, your odds of winning the hand your odds of winning seem equal or better than 1.5 to 1.

So build a big pot dammit! With two opponents, as long as they both call you're golden -- well unless one of them has a set or straight. But, this is where you need to let testosterone man take over.

Cheers
Magi

Snoman

I'd check the flop of your acting first, see their reactions then fire small on the turn, mid to large bet on the river.

SkittlePoker

Well ... I thought "lets go for it". I went all in. I figured if I didn't get called then I still get to double up (or almost ... don't remember exactly how much was in the pot), if I did get called then I felt confident the the person to call me did not have a straight and I had a decent chance of hitting a heart on the next two cards.

Turn was a black 5 which paired the board.

River was junk that matched one of the caller's cards giving him 2 pair. Off to the lounge I went.

That's poker.

pkrfce9

For what it is worth, I think you made the right move under those circumstances. It's a semi-bluff that didn't work out for you. You had a 50% chance to win the pot at the showdown. Also, by showing strength, there was a good chance the others would fold as you mention. I think the guy that called you made a mistake, unless you were so short-stacked losing the hand would have had minimal impact on his stack. Then it was worthwhile for him to try to put you out.

Do you see any value in going all-in pre-flop? A9s is a pretty strong hand when you are short-stacked and short-handed. There's a pretty good chance you'd win the hand right there or maybe scare out the guy who ended up beating you at least. Was there enough in the pot to make that option worthwhile? My feeling is it loses a lot of value post-flop if you don't hit it very well. I don't know if I'd consider a four-flush as 'hitting it well'.

Post-flop play is tricky when you don't have a 'made' hand. Really, all you had at that point was Ace high. If you had checked, the guy with the pair may have indicated strength and then you would have a decision to make. In that case, I don't know if I would have called or not. I guess it depends on how many chips I had left and the image of the guy making the bet. It's a tough call then.

BBC Z

For those of you that have a calculator to determine the odds can you tell me how this hand looked? Anyone care to say when action should be taken?

If you believe that he's got nothing better than top pair, then you are a 54% favourite to win the hand. Push those chips in.. You probably arent going to find a better situation being the shortstack.. The problem is that you didnt tell us what the preflop action was.. If there was no raise, then having a pair is very likely. If there was some serious action preflop, then with those rags he might not have anything..