Can You Fold Here?

CerberusCerberus
in MTT Strategy
Daily $5.50 2R1A tourney on Stars. Past the R/A part and into the poker part of our program when this happens:

PokerStars Game #35814300670: Tournament #229110972, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (75/150) - 2009/11/24 22:04:05 ET
Table '229110972 24' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: Disney17 (9005 in chips)
Seat 2: base4203 (14242 in chips)
Seat 3: intothesun (6935 in chips)
Seat 4: frodollars (9015 in chips)
Seat 5: McAusland (7825 in chips)
Seat 6: Tricky E007 (4585 in chips)
Seat 7: jazeb (4965 in chips)
Seat 8: mister maxey (12805 in chips)
Seat 9: TwoSevenS (17588 in chips)
Disney17: posts the ante 20
base4203: posts the ante 20
intothesun: posts the ante 20
frodollars: posts the ante 20
McAusland: posts the ante 20
Tricky E007: posts the ante 20
jazeb: posts the ante 20
mister maxey: posts the ante 20
TwoSevenS: posts the ante 20
TwoSevenS: posts small blind 75
Disney17: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to McAusland B]Ad Qs[/B
base4203: folds
intothesun: folds
frodollars: folds
McAusland: raises 400 to 550
Tricky E007: folds
jazeb: calls 550
mister maxey: calls 550
TwoSevenS: folds
Disney17: folds
*** FLOP *** B]Ah 9d Qh[/B

Yippie!!

McAusland: bets 1000
jazeb: raises 3395 to 4395 and is all-in
mister maxey: raises 7840 to 12235 and is all-in
McAusland: ...??? Ummm.... what the fuck? I'm figuring they've either both caught top pair and I'm up against AK or AJ or possibly A9. Might also be something like J10h where the draw is just too much to toss.


McAusland : calls 6255 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (4980) returned to mister maxey
*** TURN *** [Ah 9d Qh] [Ts]
*** RIVER *** [Ah 9d Qh Ts] [7c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
McAusland: shows [Ad Qs] (two pair, Aces and Queens)
mister maxey: shows B]9h 9c[/B (three of a kind, Nines)
mister maxey collected 5720 from side pot
jazeb: shows B]Qc Qd[/B (three of a kind, Queens)
McAusland said, "wow"
jazeb collected 15240 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 20960 Main pot 15240. Side pot 5720. | Rake 0
Board [Ah 9d Qh Ts 7c]
Seat 1: Disney17 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: base4203 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: intothesun folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: frodollars folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: McAusland showed [Ad Qs] and lost with two pair, Aces and Queens
Seat 6: Tricky E007 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: jazeb showed [Qc Qd] and won (15240) with three of a kind, Queens
Seat 8: mister maxey (button) showed [9h 9c] and won (5720) with three of a kind, Nines
Seat 9: TwoSevenS (small blind) folded before Flop

Destined to be a cooler or should I have been able to fold this?

Comments

  • GrahamGraham
    Kinda depends on how these people had been playing up until then. If they were both super aggresive then no way you fold, but if they had been tight or kinda avg I think I might have to lay it down based on the raise / re-raise. It is hard to put any of them on AK or AQ (even the Qs) given the preflop play. At that point I probably would have said one is on a draw and the other has a really strong hand.
  • UnknownUnknown
    Yes I can; no I won't
  • T8urmoneyT8urmoney
    Just a cooler.....I call 100% of the time, and in a $5 donkament, expect to be ahead 80% of the time.

    Had a similar spot yestday, they both had only Top top.

    Take the kick in the junk, and move on to the next tourney.
  • CerberusCerberus
    T8urmoney wrote: »
    Just a cooler.....I call 100% of the time, and in a $5 donkament, expect to be ahead 80% of the time.

    Had a similar spot yestday, they both had only Top top.

    Take the kick in the junk, and move on to the next tourney.

    Pretty much exactly what I did. Didn't even hammer fist the keyboard. Definitely went looking for the ice cream though.
  • westside8westside8
    T8urmoney wrote: »
    Just a cooler.....I call 100% of the time, and in a $5 donkament, expect to be ahead 80% of the time.

    This
  • philliiveyphilliivey
    Graham wrote: »
    Kinda depends on how these people had been playing up until then. If they were both super aggresive then no way you fold, but if they had been tight or kinda avg I think I might have to lay it down based on the raise / re-raise. It is hard to put any of them on AK or AQ (even the Qs) given the preflop play. At that point I probably would have said one is on a draw and the other has a really strong hand.


    +1 mirrion:)
  • syphilaidssyphilaids
    Definite Cooler.
    Shove 100% as said above.
    You're ahead way too often here, its only a $5 donkament, and if you win you'll have a massive chip lead and a good shot at taking first. In a donkament, if you're not willing to shove with Top 2, what are you willing to shove with?
    At these stakes I wouldnt be surprised if you ran into A7o, FD, or TJo, Q9, A9, all kinds of crap.
  • ShtebsShtebs
    syphilaids wrote: »
    Definite Cooler.
    Shove 100% as said above.
    You're ahead way too often here, its only a $5 donkament, and if you win you'll have a massive chip lead and a good shot at taking first. In a donkament, if you're not willing to shove with Top 2, what are you willing to shove with?
    At these stakes I wouldnt be surprised if you ran into A7o, FD, or TJo, Q9, A9, all kinds of crap.
    Judging by the preflop play I might... MIGHT... give one of them credit for 99 but really I'm thinking Apaint and maybe A9. As previously stated, I call the shoves as well. In these tournaments, at this stage, a lot of people are just shoving when the flop top pair or any flush draw so you are ahead enough of the time to make the call profitable.
  • 88Fingers88Fingers
    philliivey wrote: »
    +1 mirrion:)

    and fiddy...


    I dont mind a fold here and in this situation I probably would make the 'hero laydown' against 'competent' players. Against one all in, call and pray that the person does not have that set. Against and all in and re-push (for my entire stack) I would think I am up against one set and prob also a flush draw, at minimum.

    The flop looks great! The action after you bet, notsomuch...
  • blackmagiczblackmagicz
    You are going to lose too many pots if every time you get shoved on or re-raised you think villian has the nut hand (or close to it). As previously posted there is no way I am folding AQ here.

    The only thing you can do is adjust your bet sizes to control the pot. In a perfect scenario that flop is a lot of trouble with people in the hand so you can effectively play it slow by checking the flop and controlling the draws (sometimes if you have that feeling the villian isnt ever folding any type of draw and you don't really want to leave the tournament early you can just check and bet turn or check/fold if scary turn card comes)

    With all things being equal I get it in 100% of the time, I have even done it in a live tournament 12 hours into it with us right near the bubble. Where you can't load up a new table :)
  • 88Fingers88Fingers
    I definately agree that you can't always be afraid of 'the monsters under the bed' in every hand. In this case though with two all ins after a decent flop bet, I would think that we are more than likely behind.

    Folding in this spot would leave me (if it were me) with ~6k in chips with blinds at 75/150/a20. I think I'd be OK with it.

    And yes, my perspective may be jaded by the fact that I have run into this situation before with very similar results. :)
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