Fold Equity?
Late middle stages of a Pokerstars $5 rebuy tourney to get an entry to the $500 tourney. Top 13 qualify. 450 entrants.
It's the late middle stages with about 70 players left and average stack size approximately 30k. I have 16K. Blinds are 1/2k ante 75.
Folded to the cutoff who raises to 6k. Pot is 11K. He's about the same stack size as me. I'm in the SB with 99.
I'm thinking I need to double up. But the pot is 11K and that would give me almost an average stack. With my agressive play, I find an average stack is more than adequate in these late stages. So, I want the the pot as it stands. Do others agree?
So, how best to get the cutoff to fold. He just attempted a blind steal on the previous hand. The SB called him and then bet heavy on the flop. I'm thinking this play won't work back-to-back. So, I believe a raise all-in has a better chance of getting him off the hand.
Apparently not. He calls in an instant and flips over AJo. He hits the ace on the river.
Looking back, I think smooth calling the raise, and then pushing all-in would have had a better chance of getting him off the hand. If he's got a big pair, I'm screwed anyways, so lets discount that. With two big cards, he's only got a 30% chance of hitting the flop. So, in essence I've got a 70% shot at getting him to believe the flop hit me. Folding is much easier when you see the flop. At that point, he can't discount me having two-pair, or a set if I come out with an all-in bet post-flop. So, he's thinking he might make his hand and still loose. I think there's a 90% chance he would fold post-flop if he missed.
So, I have a 63% chance of taking down the hand (70%*90%) post-flop -- and winning T11K with a smooth call, all-in post flop. Getting this gives me a stack of 24K. If he calls (10%) & he is behind (70%) -- total 7%, there's a 74% chance I'll win the hand -- total 5%. The total chance of me winning is 68%.
With my all-in pre-flop, I have about a 10% chance of taking down T11K right there, or a 53% chance of taking down T36K. So, I have a 63% chance of winning (with an or situation, you add the probabilities), but the amount I win goes up.
So, it looks like the all-in post-flop would have a better chance of winning -- total of 68%, and the all-in pre-flop would get me more chips. I'm thinking I should have gone for the better chance to win. What do you guys think?
It's the late middle stages with about 70 players left and average stack size approximately 30k. I have 16K. Blinds are 1/2k ante 75.
Folded to the cutoff who raises to 6k. Pot is 11K. He's about the same stack size as me. I'm in the SB with 99.
I'm thinking I need to double up. But the pot is 11K and that would give me almost an average stack. With my agressive play, I find an average stack is more than adequate in these late stages. So, I want the the pot as it stands. Do others agree?
So, how best to get the cutoff to fold. He just attempted a blind steal on the previous hand. The SB called him and then bet heavy on the flop. I'm thinking this play won't work back-to-back. So, I believe a raise all-in has a better chance of getting him off the hand.
Apparently not. He calls in an instant and flips over AJo. He hits the ace on the river.
Looking back, I think smooth calling the raise, and then pushing all-in would have had a better chance of getting him off the hand. If he's got a big pair, I'm screwed anyways, so lets discount that. With two big cards, he's only got a 30% chance of hitting the flop. So, in essence I've got a 70% shot at getting him to believe the flop hit me. Folding is much easier when you see the flop. At that point, he can't discount me having two-pair, or a set if I come out with an all-in bet post-flop. So, he's thinking he might make his hand and still loose. I think there's a 90% chance he would fold post-flop if he missed.
So, I have a 63% chance of taking down the hand (70%*90%) post-flop -- and winning T11K with a smooth call, all-in post flop. Getting this gives me a stack of 24K. If he calls (10%) & he is behind (70%) -- total 7%, there's a 74% chance I'll win the hand -- total 5%. The total chance of me winning is 68%.
With my all-in pre-flop, I have about a 10% chance of taking down T11K right there, or a 53% chance of taking down T36K. So, I have a 63% chance of winning (with an or situation, you add the probabilities), but the amount I win goes up.
So, it looks like the all-in post-flop would have a better chance of winning -- total of 68%, and the all-in pre-flop would get me more chips. I'm thinking I should have gone for the better chance to win. What do you guys think?
Comments
With 99 a lot of cards on the flop can hurt you.
I think a raise of 10K more for an all-in is a tough call to make with AJo. Depends on the player - I have seen many players call at this stage of a tournament with a hand like that, but most will lay it down. You're probably making him make a tough coin flip decision for all of his chips... whether he wants to gamble with it is beyond your control. I think for him to call would be a poor decision. AJo is so easily dominated... at best he is a coin flip to your 99, but he can't know that he isn't up against AQ or AK.
hork.
My intuition is that your stack size is slightly too small to call and see the flop, but slightly too big for the "auto all-in" play.
As Hork42 mentioned, with the automatic all-in play, you're putting yourself in a situation where your opponent calls if he hits and folds if he misses. The key here is that your opponent will probably not feel pot stuck facing the additional 10K bet if he missed the flop. Get that money in there pre-flop with a strong hand which is most likely a coin flip (which I don't think you mind so much with the BB at 2K) at worst.
ScottyZ
The problem I'm having is that I was almost certain that the guy was going to call my all-in bet pre-flop. He folded on a blind steal on the hand before -- post-flop. I figured him for someone who could fold post-flop, but had a tough time folding pre-flop. I put him on big cards which he would not let go to an all-in bet pref-flop. At the time, I was 100% sure he would have called with KQ, KJ, QJ, Ax -- and I was confident he wasn't stealing with something like 89s, as he just missed a blind steal. So, I figure I'm a slight favourite to double up, and a strong favourite if he has A less than 9 suited. And, I have the chance to make him fold pre-flop -- I'm always leave room for being wrong!
So my alter-ego I was chatting with when I made the decision to push-in preflop, wanted him to fold if he missed the flop. Basically I am a 70% favourite, if I auto-push-all-in post-flop and he's guaranteed to fold when he misses. So, I have a 70% shot at winning T11K.
Do you take the a) favourite, say 60% to double up, or b) 70% shot at T11K?
Flat call, close your eyes and fire on the flop no matter what happens.