Call or Raise without the nuts....?

Unknown

conventional theory may tell you not to raise without the nuts:

***** Hand History for Game 8582654513 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $2 USD Buy-in Trny: 48347595 Level: 7 Blinds(300/600) - Thursday, November 05, 17:16:59 PST 2009
Table Regular (1784570) Table #1 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 7: Arbotante ( 12,460 )
Seat 10: Floppy1983 ( 7,880 )
Seat 2: HERO ( 7,975 )
Seat 8: goulwoul ( 43,446 )
Seat 3: guitar288 ( 7,204 )
Seat 1: leroybrown10 ( 22,970 )
Seat 4: manoelmanaus ( 19,544 )
Seat 5: trombocit ( 12,209 )
Seat 6: yoman57000 ( 6,618 )
Trny: 48347595 Level: 7
Blinds(300/600)
** Dealing down cards **
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to HERO [ Ac 8c ]
guitar288 folds
manoelmanaus folds
trombocit folds
yoman57000 folds
Arbotante folds
goulwoul folds
Floppy1983 folds
leroybrown10 calls [300]
HERO checks
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4c, 3s, Kc ]
leroybrown10 checks
HERO bets [900]
leroybrown10 calls [900]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5d ]
leroybrown10 checks
HERO checks
** Dealing River ** [ 3c ]
leroybrown10 bets [1,800]
HERO ..............................?

If I double up at this point I will generally make some decent coin, I have the villain on some kind of trey, maybe a king or a four, but im leaning towards trips and worried about a full house. but it seems to me hes likely to call my re raise, or am i just taking what i have and not taking the risk? There are 62 people left and 40 pays.

Wetts1012

With your stack size, just ship it in.

Hes never folding so its kind of a trivial question.

DrTyore

You... you're kidding right?

First off.. whoever told you that conventional theory is to not raise without the nuts hates money.

Secondly, this hand.. well... what could he bet out there that we beat? A flush, three of a kind, two pair, and a bluff. Will he call a re-raise with any of these? Trips, yes, smaller flush, yes. Two pair? Maybe if he's bad, and bluff no.

You've put in 1500 so far of your starting stack of 8k, or about 1/5th. If you call his 1800 and lose, you're down 3300, down the 4700, leaving you with an M of about 5. Honestly, without reads, this is a tricky hand to analyze.. .if it's against most of the people I know around here, I call. If it's your standard $2 online player.. I push and giddily wait for the pot to get shipped.

Mark

Cerberus

Seeing as it's blind versus blind and he limped in, you're probably looking at something like K8o. If his check call was a very quick one, he's on a draw. Slow call, top pair or top two would be my guess. Bet on the river isn't very strong, so I'm sticking with the K8o idea. I'm with the doctor, ship it and laugh when he flips over crap.

Unknown

HERO is all-In [6,475]
leroybrown10 calls [4,675]
leroybrown10 shows [ 3d, Kd ]a full house, Threes full of Kings.
HERO shows [ Ac, 8c ]a flush, Ace high.
leroybrown10 wins 15,950 chips from the main pot with a full house, Threes full of Kings.
Player HERO finished in 63.



So we're on a similar level and its ok that I punched myself in the face out of frustration? I'm not sayin your wrong cause the end isn't always the most important but should i have gotten away from the all in? comments....?

Wetts1012

BTW your hand justifies a shove pre. in this situation. Not sure why youre checking behind there......

Cerberus

+1 to Wetts there. If he's limping into you, shove and take the free chips. If he's a twat (which being a $2 tourney that's possible) he'll call anyways and you end up with the same result, but the shove gives you the chance to take it down.

Unknown

Wetts1012 wrote: »

BTW your hand justifies a shove pre. in this situation. Not sure why youre checking behind there......

this i didn't know. or consider. the reason i checked preflop is because i felt i had a chance to make some money off this guy, funny that it backfired. Shove hey...sounds like trouble..

syphilaids

Wetts is right. shove. You're way ahead of a SB's limping range, especially in a $2 tourny. your M is just over 8, you don't need to go all in just yet but you're getting very close. A8s in the bb against a sb limp is good enough for me.
Now given that you did check, I think you played it fine. After he smooth calls your flop bet he either has TPNK, draw, or a monster obviously. I highly doubt the SB would try to limp 53, 34, but anything is possible. Given that the only hands that are beating you are K3 and KK. This is an easy shove on the river in my books for these stakes, as half the time you'll see a bluff or some donk thinking his Kx is good. IF he has it, then nice hand sir! But you see why it is important to raise preflop.

Unknown

syphilaids wrote: »

Wetts is right. shove. You're way ahead of a SB's limping range, especially in a $2 tourny. your M is just over 8, you don't need to go all in just yet but you're getting very close. A8s in the bb against a sb limp is good enough for me.
Now given that you did check, I think you played it fine. After he smooth calls your flop bet he either has TPNK, draw, or a monster obviously. I highly doubt the SB would try to limp 53, 34, but anything is possible. Given that the only hands that are beating you are K3 and KK. This is an easy shove on the river in my books for these stakes, as half the time you'll see a bluff or some donk thinking his Kx is good. IF he has it, then nice hand sir! But you see why it is important to raise preflop.

i do see why it was important to have raised although i really felt i could extract some chips from him, other than the fact that he was dealt the perfect hand to take my money. So what are the chances that he was dealt a better hand than me and what do I use to calculate that? And is that really a good strategy to play russian roulette with his starting hand? Someone get mad at me and explain the justify

syphilaids

darbday wrote: »

i do see why it was important to have raised although i really felt i could extract some chips from him, other than the fact that he was dealt the perfect hand to take my money. So what are the chances that he was dealt a better hand than me and what do I use to calculate that? And is that really a good strategy to play russian roulette with his starting hand? Someone get mad at me and explain the justify

Pokerstove.com
Get the hand sim and find out how ahead you are. Against his limping range, (for you to determine based his previous actions), you're ahead. I'd assume fi he is your average player he'd raise with any A, 2 high cards, PPs. He's limping, so he probably has middling hands like T8s or Kx Q7+ etc.

And yes its a good strategy as long as you dont make it a habbit. You NEED to double up to stay alive in this tournament. If you had 50bbs then it'd be a different story, but you dont. Plus if you shove in the bb, its difficult for something like A9-AJ to call (but those hands would most likely raise anyway), and VERY difficult for something like KT+ to call. You'll find you're ahead most of the time.

Henjon

When should you worry about boats when u have the nut flush and not play for maximizing your value in the hand?

Generally I believe fearing boats is risking "monster under the bed syndrome" which will cut down your profit. On a board like this a boat is not impossible of course. But it's quite unlikely. Sure he can have 43. But he have more hands in his range that will call an allin most of the times (especially on this level) like other flushes, A2 or 67 for a straight, A3 for rivered trips, middle pocket pairs (some players do bizarre "slowplays" with them"). So shove here as played (I do agree that a shove pre is a better play).

The only time I will be more careful is a situation of this type: Multiple players and the board is something like QJQA8 and a solid player betting OOP on the river. Why? Because there are many more hands that vere likely to call pre that could have made their boat.

Uffdaapps1450

I would put him on small cards to two pair or straight and went all in.... cash game i would suspect you could find a way to perhaps call but i would think in a tourney you wouldn't want to miss the opportunity to get chips.... i think i'd be more disappointed if i missed an opportunity to get chips than i would to go down with a flush.