what did villain have?

Muddguts

Last night on a .25/.50 game I ran into a difficult decision...


Me (Muddguts) $47.55
opponent: $38.65


I am holding :8c:jc

I limp as does opponent

Flop comes: :ts:9c:2c

I bet $2

opponent immediately shoves his remaining $38

I have an open ended straight draw and a flush draw. I folded.

Did he have an overpair? 2 pair? a set? It seems to me he was protecting something. Naturally I am wrestling with the thought of did I make the right choice? I wish I knew the math part of poker, knowing the odds of completing either of the draws I was on would have helped tremendously, so would of having "a pair" :-\

Graham

I would say he probably had something like Ace Ten or an overpair. I think if you did make the call it was probably about a 50/50 flip considering your outs.

JohnnieH

Graham wrote: »

I would say he probably had something like Ace Ten. I think if you did make the call it was probably about a 50/50 flip considering your outs.

No raise in front? I think the villain had J10 or Q10. maybe K10. Clearly he didn't want to give odds to a draw.

I would have called.

STR82ACE

Call call call

Hellmuth's Mole

Probably JQ or a flush draw. Can't see over pair or big ace if he limped. Can't be shoving a set if he has brains. Perhaps spiked 2 shit pair (92).

Don't hate a fold, wouldn't hate a call either. Depends how much you want to gambool.

blackmagicz

Where was villian from?

Euro villian - bluff
American villian - 1 pair
CDN Villian - 2 pair

I am not folding there heads up. I think even your Jc may be good in some situations. Sometimes even your 8c if villian is euro and shoved with 33-77

Unknown

given the info, I don't really see how you can put the villian on anything other than not having your hole cards or the board cards.

Kristy

Grunch: Your mom.

Kristy

ok, I've read it all now...

...really see my edit line above, also I'm putting an early vote in for 'ban' if he didn't see this guys card and isn't going to be able to tell us the answer.

JimmyHo

- against two pair, say 10d 9d, you are 50% to win the hand
- against over pair Kh Kd, you are 55% to win the hand
- against a set say 9h 9d you are 40% to win the hand

worse case scenerio 10c Ac you are only 29% to win

Would villian limp with an over pair (AA-JJ) or a small pair? If you think they only have one or two pair, call is ok. If they have top pair, you are way ahead.

I think this was live.

westside8

No brainer call. You're no worst than 50/50 even if he range consist only on sets.

Worse case scenerio is for you to be up against A10c or a hand like KQc, but I don't think you can put him on that narrow of a range. His range is wide enough that getting a tad better than 50/50 on your odds makes it a snap-call

DrTyore

I want to know how he got involved with J8 to see a flop

I want to know what he was hoping for with his J8

I want to know how he'll play this differently when his testicles finally drop.

Mark

Wetts1012

I like you, but folding here is really bad.

Milo

Jesus, even a donk like me would have called . . .

JimmyHo

DrTyore wrote: »

I want to know how he got involved with J8 to see a flop

who wants to handle this one?

westside8

DrTyore wrote: »

I want to know how he got involved with J8 to see a flop

I want to know what he was hoping for with his J8

I want to know how he'll play this differently when his testicles finally drop.

Mark

Heads up play possibly?

Muddguts

The hand was just down to us SB and BB hence my completing the SB with J8. The issue of him not raising has been brought up and perhaps he did have a PP and didn't want to scare his only customer away preflop? I probably should have called even though it was my last $38 bucks but in a small way it made me feel okay that I was able to fold it. Oh and Mark, did my sitting beside you last week at AJ's have anything to do with you wanting to talk about my testies?

Cerberus

I have to agree with the "fuck that I'm snap calling" group for a number of reasons. The sheer volume of outs you have (even with top set there you have 15ish outs) and unyielding curiosity to figure out what in the blue hell he'd shove $38 into a $3 pot with. Here's the thing though: where were you in the night? Was this beginning, middle, end? Had you been up or down so far? How was your mindset for the game? Focused? Distracted? Uninterested? Anxious? Hungry? Basically, it's where was your head at as far as I'm concerned. Honestly though, I stick to my first sentance: fuck that I'm snap calling. I mean, hell, it's barely a meal from Domino's.

zunni74

I can't understand all the people calling $38 into a $3 pot on a draw......

Especially since there's no way to put him on a hand. Look at what people think he had, over-pair, set, 2 pair, TPTK, AK, draw.

Surely there are better spots where we can effectively range our oppt's hand and be able to have some clue of what he held.

[ ] Would push $38 into a $3 pot when I have no clue what the villain holds.

Wetts1012

zunni74 wrote: »

[ ] Would push $38 into a $3 pot when I have no clue what the villain holds.

[x] Hates Money

Best possible situation for villain here is a set, to which you are only a 60/40 dog. Hero, regardless of what the villain has is a marginal favourite most of the time.

I see the overbet as a protection bet.

Kristy

zunni74 wrote: »

I can't understand all the people calling $38 into a $3 pot on a draw......

Especially since there's no way to put him on a hand. Look at what people think he had, over-pair, set, 2 pair, TPTK, AK, draw.

Surely there are better spots where we can effectively range our oppt's hand and be able to have some clue of what he held.

[ ] Would push $38 into a $3 pot when I have no clue what the villain holds.

Wetts1012 wrote: »

[x] Hates Money

+1 with most wrong part bolded.

blackmagicz

zunni74 wrote: »

I can't understand all the people calling $38 into a $3 pot on a draw......

Especially since there's no way to put him on a hand. Look at what people think he had, over-pair, set, 2 pair, TPTK, AK, draw.

Surely there are better spots where we can effectively range our oppt's hand and be able to have some clue of what he held.

[ ] Would push $38 into a $3 pot when I have no clue what the villain holds.

I think the issue here is if you are going to go in with J8 suited and you hit that flop, how much better of a flop are you looking for other than 888 or JJJ or jj8 ?? At the end of the day poker is about odds/skill but the root of game is gambling. All the skill in the world isn't going to help you if you shove with KK and someone wakes up with AA....

Long term analysis this is a call on any day that ends in Y

Flint Bones

It's a call plain and simple.

It is not really a debate.

T8urmoney

There are few hands that have you crushed here......(thinking maybe Ac10c), anything else, you're close to 50/50 or better.

With no knowledge of the villain, his range can be very wide....underpair, 2 pr, 1 pr, straight draw, flush draw. Unlikely they have set here.

Snap call, double fist pump, back flip, closing with the moon walk.....do this before turn and river in case you miss. If you miss, smash monitor, pull out the laptop, and reload.

Kristy

T8urmoney wrote: »

Snap call, double fist pump, back flip, closing with the moon walk.....do this before turn and river in case you miss. If you miss, smash monitor, pull out the laptop, and reload.

This is probably my most favourite advice ever given on this site.:h:

Cerberus

Kristy_Sea wrote: »

This is probably my most favourite advice ever given on this site.:h:

+1. I just spat chocolate chip cookie all over the monitor while reading but it was totally worth it.