Hand Reasoning.
Here is something I wrote down for fun. I'm writing a book on reasonings for Limit Hold 'Em plays. I really feel that other than tournaments, low limit hold'em has a lot of money to be taken if you can play "mistake free poker". I am trying to teach my friend the subtlies of limit as he is a good NL player, but awful at limit. (No Big Bluffs!)
Here is an example of a hand you may encounter.
Question #1a: You hold Kd Qd on the Button. There are 2 limpers. What do you do?
My Answer: Raise. Not only are you trying to eliminate weak hands in the Blinds from entering like 5d 10c, Jh 4s etc… but you are in the best position. Most people generally tend to check to the pre flop better on the flop, regardless of what falls. You are guaranteed that the two limpers will call. If they are going to call one big bet, they almost guaranteed will call another. You have also put more money into a pot where you are in favorable position, and where people are most likely going to check to you to see what you want to do. In other words, on the Flop, you dictate the pace. Both of the blinds fold, and the limpers call.
Question #1b: The Flop is Ac Kc 9d. As expected, it has been checked to you. What do you do?
My Answer: Although this is not the best flop you could have hoped for, it is essential for you to represent the Ace. You were the Pre-flop raiser. Hands that you may be against here could be something like Q-10, J-10, Q-J. You could also be up against an Ace rag, or even an Ace big, but not as likely since most people will raise up A-K or A-Q in early or middle positions. You have second pair with the best kicker without pairing, and a backdoor flush draw.
Obviously, you probably are not going to get the Ace to fold. He may smooth call you, planning to check raise you on the turn for a double sized bet. If he check raises you here on the flop, I would strongly suggest you release your hand immediately. This is an extremely bad play if he actually does any big ace. He could make more money by check raising the turn with any big ace, assuming that he thinks you are going to bet.
By check raising on the small bet street, he is usually going to face a call by most players. Use this blunder by him to your advantage! Fold your hand and wait for a bettor flop.
By the way, I do not like the raise if he is on a club draw, (which is not altogether crazy, since it is generally considered a good play to check raise there flush draws) He is in bad position. He has pretty much committed himself to betting the turn regardless since he check raised the flop, even if his flush doesn’t fall. This often yields an unprofitable play because if the flush doesn’t fall on the turn, he is still facing a caller who has shown preflop strength.
*People do not like to get check raised. Think about it. The last time you were check raised, you probably called all the way to the river and paid him off because you wanted to see what he check raised with. I would suggest that you take the abuse. Take the fact that you got check-raised, it is ok. You are most likely beaten. Most players (especially at low stakes) do not check raise with nothing. Even if he has a flush draw, you are getting not getting much better than even money on your double check call to the river with only second pair and 5 non-live outs.
The only check raise play I like here is if he has an Ace rag (which he might since he was a limper) He is then first to act on the turn, where if a non scare card comes off, he can bet confidently and see what you will do. If you raise him, he should fold. He’s almost drawing dead to a reraise.
By betting out here, it puts pressure on Q-J or Q-10 knowing, that if he doesn’t catch his perfect card here on the turn, he’s going to be facing a double sized bet. Q-J or Q-10 may call here, on their gutshot. Whether this is profitable or not, is not what your worried about. (People will make bad calls all day, it is your job to exploit this) At this point you will have to judge how strong or weak their check/bet is on the turn. Keep in mind, most people will only bet on 3 things. A drawing hand, a made hand, or on your weakness. Betting the flop disallows the third. You’ve shown preflop strength, and flop strength.
Do you think he really is going to bluff you out of position for a double sized bet on the turn without a flush, ace or straight? If he does, well you can get him later. It is more than likely that he has you beat if he bets out the turn, especially with a 10 or a J coming off on the turn. Do not call the turn if he bets out unless a K or Q falls.
If you allow a free card, you are also allowing the two limpers a chance to dictate the play. They could now represent the Ace, while having a holding similar to yours or weaker. Thus, essentially giving away a pot that you were in great position to win.
Question 1c: The first limper folds, the second limper takes 3 seconds, then calls. The board now reads Ac Kc 9d 2h. He checks to you. What do you do?
My answer:
The turn card changed nothing. You are still playing the flop. The turn might as well not be there. The only thing that the 2h could have done was made someone with pocket 2’s a set. But let’s be honest, even if someone was bad enough to call with 2s 2d after the flop, do you think they’d be disciplined enough to check it on the turn? If they are that bad then you’re going to take their money eventually so don’t worry about it. The other difference now is that the bet size here has doubled.
Of course, every situation calls for different actions. If the player who called me was known as a tight player, I would take this free card. Many good players will often get an extra bet or two out of you by check raising the turn. I often will do this too with powerful hands, as most people will not fold to a check raise, especially one holding KQ in this position. Therefore, if a tight player checked to me here, I would check it along. The tight player will probably be disappointed that you checked behind him because he was playing to extract some more money out of you. If you check behind him, you are doing exactly the opposite of what he wanted (which you always want to do!) He probably has a small ace, trip nines(doubtful), or a flush draw. Although you would like to put the bets in when you have a hand against another’s lone draw, in this situation I would say to take the free card. To me, against a good player who flat called me here on the flop, this would reek of a check-raise. And why put a double sized bet in here when you are very unsure if you have the best of it? He may flat call you all the way down with ace rag and beat you. No need to build a pot for something you’re not sure where you stand. Take the free card against a good/tight player.
Against a weak player, I would say bet out. You may be up against a bad ace, but he will call regardless. He has an ace! You have to take that gamble that you do in fact have the best hand and bet it out. If he calls, he calls. Be weary on the river of a caller with a bad ace still. If he check raises, fold.
You can be assured right now that the best you are up against is an ace, a flush or straight draw. You figure to be in great shape if he has a similar holding to you like K-J or K-10 which is also quite possible. You may also get him to lay down his hand right here. Something like 8-8 or 7-7 is also a possibility since many bad players will try to catch their 2 outer on the turn and if they don’t, bail.
He might check raise you here, but again fold right away. Especially in the case against a bad player, be assured he will not check raise you on the big bet street with one card to come on a lone straight or flush draw. In this case, you will save yourself some cash and know that you were beat.
If he flat called here, do not look at it as a smooth call. Be confident that your KQ is best at this point. You will most often have the best hand if he flat calls you here. You are in good shape I would say 95% of the time.
Question 1d: You check also against what you considerer a good player. The board now looks like this. Ac Kc 9d 2h 10s. What would you do?
My Answer:
In my experience, players will usually bet out the river quite quickly if there check raise plan had failed. He may have already reached for chips to bet out even before the river came. I would figure this action for the player not having Q-J, but the ace. I am very confident that a good player who bets out here has got you beat. I am assuming that he smooth called the flop to check raise to turn. Most good players will do this.
Let’s take a look at your opponents play throughout this hand. (We are considering he is somewhat of a good player) In middle position, he flat called. What kind of hands would he flat call with? A-A? A-K? A-10? K-J? While these hands could be possible, I would more likely assume he had something like ace rag suited. If he had something like A-A, he would re-raise my raise from the button. He would ensure action from 2 players because both of us will almost always call his raise. A-K seems unlikely because he would raise that hand from middle position. I rarely ever see any players, good or bad, flat call with A-K. A-K is an easy hand to raise with, because it is strong but not as strong as A-A. (For some reason, people with A-A are more hesitant to raise because they fear in knocking people out of the pot) I would narrow his hands down to low pockets, J-10, or most possibly ace rag suited. This seems to make the most sense to me. It is not a raising hand; would like to see a cheap flop where he could use his skills to manipulate the pot if he caught a 4-card flush on the flop. This really seems like ace rag suited to me.
Here is an example of a hand you may encounter.
Question #1a: You hold Kd Qd on the Button. There are 2 limpers. What do you do?
My Answer: Raise. Not only are you trying to eliminate weak hands in the Blinds from entering like 5d 10c, Jh 4s etc… but you are in the best position. Most people generally tend to check to the pre flop better on the flop, regardless of what falls. You are guaranteed that the two limpers will call. If they are going to call one big bet, they almost guaranteed will call another. You have also put more money into a pot where you are in favorable position, and where people are most likely going to check to you to see what you want to do. In other words, on the Flop, you dictate the pace. Both of the blinds fold, and the limpers call.
Question #1b: The Flop is Ac Kc 9d. As expected, it has been checked to you. What do you do?
My Answer: Although this is not the best flop you could have hoped for, it is essential for you to represent the Ace. You were the Pre-flop raiser. Hands that you may be against here could be something like Q-10, J-10, Q-J. You could also be up against an Ace rag, or even an Ace big, but not as likely since most people will raise up A-K or A-Q in early or middle positions. You have second pair with the best kicker without pairing, and a backdoor flush draw.
Obviously, you probably are not going to get the Ace to fold. He may smooth call you, planning to check raise you on the turn for a double sized bet. If he check raises you here on the flop, I would strongly suggest you release your hand immediately. This is an extremely bad play if he actually does any big ace. He could make more money by check raising the turn with any big ace, assuming that he thinks you are going to bet.
By check raising on the small bet street, he is usually going to face a call by most players. Use this blunder by him to your advantage! Fold your hand and wait for a bettor flop.
By the way, I do not like the raise if he is on a club draw, (which is not altogether crazy, since it is generally considered a good play to check raise there flush draws) He is in bad position. He has pretty much committed himself to betting the turn regardless since he check raised the flop, even if his flush doesn’t fall. This often yields an unprofitable play because if the flush doesn’t fall on the turn, he is still facing a caller who has shown preflop strength.
*People do not like to get check raised. Think about it. The last time you were check raised, you probably called all the way to the river and paid him off because you wanted to see what he check raised with. I would suggest that you take the abuse. Take the fact that you got check-raised, it is ok. You are most likely beaten. Most players (especially at low stakes) do not check raise with nothing. Even if he has a flush draw, you are getting not getting much better than even money on your double check call to the river with only second pair and 5 non-live outs.
The only check raise play I like here is if he has an Ace rag (which he might since he was a limper) He is then first to act on the turn, where if a non scare card comes off, he can bet confidently and see what you will do. If you raise him, he should fold. He’s almost drawing dead to a reraise.
By betting out here, it puts pressure on Q-J or Q-10 knowing, that if he doesn’t catch his perfect card here on the turn, he’s going to be facing a double sized bet. Q-J or Q-10 may call here, on their gutshot. Whether this is profitable or not, is not what your worried about. (People will make bad calls all day, it is your job to exploit this) At this point you will have to judge how strong or weak their check/bet is on the turn. Keep in mind, most people will only bet on 3 things. A drawing hand, a made hand, or on your weakness. Betting the flop disallows the third. You’ve shown preflop strength, and flop strength.
Do you think he really is going to bluff you out of position for a double sized bet on the turn without a flush, ace or straight? If he does, well you can get him later. It is more than likely that he has you beat if he bets out the turn, especially with a 10 or a J coming off on the turn. Do not call the turn if he bets out unless a K or Q falls.
If you allow a free card, you are also allowing the two limpers a chance to dictate the play. They could now represent the Ace, while having a holding similar to yours or weaker. Thus, essentially giving away a pot that you were in great position to win.
Question 1c: The first limper folds, the second limper takes 3 seconds, then calls. The board now reads Ac Kc 9d 2h. He checks to you. What do you do?
My answer:
The turn card changed nothing. You are still playing the flop. The turn might as well not be there. The only thing that the 2h could have done was made someone with pocket 2’s a set. But let’s be honest, even if someone was bad enough to call with 2s 2d after the flop, do you think they’d be disciplined enough to check it on the turn? If they are that bad then you’re going to take their money eventually so don’t worry about it. The other difference now is that the bet size here has doubled.
Of course, every situation calls for different actions. If the player who called me was known as a tight player, I would take this free card. Many good players will often get an extra bet or two out of you by check raising the turn. I often will do this too with powerful hands, as most people will not fold to a check raise, especially one holding KQ in this position. Therefore, if a tight player checked to me here, I would check it along. The tight player will probably be disappointed that you checked behind him because he was playing to extract some more money out of you. If you check behind him, you are doing exactly the opposite of what he wanted (which you always want to do!) He probably has a small ace, trip nines(doubtful), or a flush draw. Although you would like to put the bets in when you have a hand against another’s lone draw, in this situation I would say to take the free card. To me, against a good player who flat called me here on the flop, this would reek of a check-raise. And why put a double sized bet in here when you are very unsure if you have the best of it? He may flat call you all the way down with ace rag and beat you. No need to build a pot for something you’re not sure where you stand. Take the free card against a good/tight player.
Against a weak player, I would say bet out. You may be up against a bad ace, but he will call regardless. He has an ace! You have to take that gamble that you do in fact have the best hand and bet it out. If he calls, he calls. Be weary on the river of a caller with a bad ace still. If he check raises, fold.
You can be assured right now that the best you are up against is an ace, a flush or straight draw. You figure to be in great shape if he has a similar holding to you like K-J or K-10 which is also quite possible. You may also get him to lay down his hand right here. Something like 8-8 or 7-7 is also a possibility since many bad players will try to catch their 2 outer on the turn and if they don’t, bail.
He might check raise you here, but again fold right away. Especially in the case against a bad player, be assured he will not check raise you on the big bet street with one card to come on a lone straight or flush draw. In this case, you will save yourself some cash and know that you were beat.
If he flat called here, do not look at it as a smooth call. Be confident that your KQ is best at this point. You will most often have the best hand if he flat calls you here. You are in good shape I would say 95% of the time.
Question 1d: You check also against what you considerer a good player. The board now looks like this. Ac Kc 9d 2h 10s. What would you do?
My Answer:
In my experience, players will usually bet out the river quite quickly if there check raise plan had failed. He may have already reached for chips to bet out even before the river came. I would figure this action for the player not having Q-J, but the ace. I am very confident that a good player who bets out here has got you beat. I am assuming that he smooth called the flop to check raise to turn. Most good players will do this.
Let’s take a look at your opponents play throughout this hand. (We are considering he is somewhat of a good player) In middle position, he flat called. What kind of hands would he flat call with? A-A? A-K? A-10? K-J? While these hands could be possible, I would more likely assume he had something like ace rag suited. If he had something like A-A, he would re-raise my raise from the button. He would ensure action from 2 players because both of us will almost always call his raise. A-K seems unlikely because he would raise that hand from middle position. I rarely ever see any players, good or bad, flat call with A-K. A-K is an easy hand to raise with, because it is strong but not as strong as A-A. (For some reason, people with A-A are more hesitant to raise because they fear in knocking people out of the pot) I would narrow his hands down to low pockets, J-10, or most possibly ace rag suited. This seems to make the most sense to me. It is not a raising hand; would like to see a cheap flop where he could use his skills to manipulate the pot if he caught a 4-card flush on the flop. This really seems like ace rag suited to me.
Comments
Question 1e: You bet out against what you considerer a bad player. The board now looks like this. Ac Kc 9d 2h 10s. The bad player checks to you. What would you do?
My Answer:
After studying him for a bit, I would bet out for value. I assume that he does not have an ace by his action on this pot. I assume he would have check-raised me with any good ace on the turn. I would put him on 10J, Q10, KJ or possibly a flush draw. (It is quite possible that he has something like 6-6 still if he is really bad) I would not assume the worst here that he caught his Q-J straight.
Rest assured if he has any sort of a hand, he will call you. If he has a good hand, he will most likely bet out. A lot of bad players don’t check raise. They just don’t. Especially not on the river. “He could check too!†If he checks here, consider it an honest check. He will most likely call you down with K-8 or even 10-J because he caught his 10 on the river. Most bad players will end up paying you off for two big bets when they are a huge underdog in the hand because they wanted to see what you held. Exploit this. Do not check this against a weak player. Bet for value.
I would consider this to be both great situations where you lost the least amount of money you could, and won the most amount you could, looking at the very same hand.
Am I wrong here?? Is there other ways to play this hand? What other things am I not looking at? Please give me all the advice and criticism you can. I am looking to play/teach perfect low limit hold 'em where mistakes are virtually eliminated. Luck is one thing, mistakes are another. PLEASE PLEASE post, this took a long time for me to do and I would REALLY appreciate any responses.
PS. 100 Man tourney in December, email me grendus@hotmail.com for details
Assuming that at least one player sees the flop with an Ace every single hand in low-limit is not too far from reality.
I would check the flop behind everyone, and dump the hand on the turn if it's no help (the turn *does* help if a diamond comes off of course) and you face a bet.
Giving a free card doesn't concern me since there is some chance I may not have the best hand. (Maybe I'm the one who needs the free card.)
I would certainly go ahead and bet the turn (if it's not a scare card) if it was checked around to me again. This is a major advantage of checking the flop. I'm quite certain I have the best hand after it's checked through to me on *both* rounds. A lot of players know about "betting (or raising) for information". I think that checking on this flop provides superior information.
ScottyZ