"Time to go home" is unreliable.

Unknown

Further to some discussion of the "well boys, it's time for me to go home" tell in the 'Hamilton poker story' thread, I've decided that these words mean nothing, really. I put forth the opinion that when someone says this and moves all-in, they have aces. That was in fact the case when my brother said it. Some people in the thread didn't think it was as reliable a tell as all that, and I'm now inclined to agree.

Last night, in a relatively small buy-in 30-player tournament, we're down to the final table. Top 4 pay, 10 are left, and I have about 10K in chips with 500/1000 blinds.

I'm EP with 77 and make it 3K, which has been the 'standard' raise at this level, and it gets the blinds most times. The player to my immediate left says "time for me to go home" and moves all-in. Folded back to me. He has me covered. I know that he is relatively new to poker, and I know that he doesn't play many hands, but besides that, I don't know much about him because he wasn't at my previous table. The thought of calling off the rest of my stack with 77 sickens me, so I folded.

He showed pocket sixes.

Sometimes they really mean it when they say that, I guess.

Would anyone have called here? FWIW, I managed to build my stack back up, and then it went back down and I finished 7th.

Regards,
all_aces

sweetjimmi

Well, the answer seems pretty obvious knowing all the info I know now. It's an easy call. LOL.

For real though, with only 10BB I am picking a hand with the end goal of having all my chips in the middle. With 77 I raise the standard and call anyone down. Depends on your range of cards you want to dance with though. 77 would have been good enough for me. In a normal situation where blinds aren't a factor I think it's a very easy fold.

Just my thoughts.

Unknown

Hmmm... I think with 77 and 10XBB you have 2 choices: push and hope for the best, or raise less and leave yourself with enough chips to leave you with a decision.

Clearly, I made the wrong choice. Some contributing factors were that even with 10XBB, I was probably about 6th in chips at that time. Also, I think I play pretty well on a short stack, and finally, I thought I was beat, plain and simple. I thought he had TT or JJ, and I wasn't willing to call off my stack, after making it that far, to find out.

Nonetheless, I tend to agree with you that I made a mistake, even if I didn't find out he had 66. Sometimes you just have to gamble... 77 isn't an ideal hand to do it with when you're the caller, but life isn't perfect.

Thanks for the feedback,
all_aces

sweetjimmi

Hindsite says it was an easy call...lol. Just kidding. I understand your fold and given the situation I may have done the same. IT ALL DEPENDS!

Chugs

i think folding was the right move, going that far and ending up with a hand that was most likely a slight advantage (coin-flip) or dominated

sweetjimmi

But...I think really the right move would have been to raise standard preflop with attentions of moving the rest of your chips in the middle regardless of what else happens. 10BB to me = time to double up so I have some breathing room. By raising and folding you are putting yourself into a position to put the rest of your money in with a much lesser hand or worse just blinding away.

IMHO, with 10BB or less you need to be thinking about doubling or better since there is not much (if any) playing when you only have 10BB. In the this position it's time to pick a hand to win or lose with. This is based on playing to win and not worrying about placing. If placing is on your agenda then I think the raise fold is the right play.

Unknown

The main difference is that 10XBB is the 'move-in or fold' point for most players, but I consider it to be 6XBB, based on Dave's advice. 6XBB is, as you probably know, the new black, so 7XBB was fine for me. Again, for many people that may not be the case.

'Placing vs. winning' is never a concern for me... I always make what I consider to be the best decision for the moment, regardless of where I'm at in the payscale. Of course, what 'I consider to be the best decision' is not always the best decision. Basically, I thought I had a better shot at winning by folding in this spot and waiting for a better opportunity, which did in fact come along.

Regards,
all_aces

sweetjimmi

The main difference is that 10XBB is the 'move-in or fold' point for most players, but I consider it to be 6XBB, based on Dave's advice. 6XBB is, as you probably know, the new black, so 7XBB was fine for me.

But this is kinda my point ... let see here we'll start from scratch.

I have 10 BB in front of me with the same situation as above. With 77 I think you have two options that are best especially since you are in an early position. A flat call with the intention of folding to a raise or raising standard and pushing regardless of what happens (unless you make everyone fold). Here's my reasoning ... if you are going to fold to a raise regardless the you should minimize your losses and just flat call. By raising you have effectively made your stack a push or fold pile for the future.
That being said I guess what I'm trying to say is that the decision needs to be made before you play the hand period (which is what I was trying to say above) and not after seeing the reraise. At this point in tourney your stack size is in an undesirable amount so it is important to tred carefully.
So really I guess I am saying based on your decision to fold to a reraise I don't like the raise from EP. Now if you were in a late position and the blinds pushed I think it would change the storey again.

LOL I love when something is so clear.

ScottyZ

I like the way you played the hand. I'm sure you were successfully applying your "I won't be influenced by table talk" maxim at the time. :cool:

This is, you would have played it exactly the same way if he had said nothing at all, right?

ScottyZ

Unknown

That is correct, I would have played it the same way if he'd said nothing. Just thought I'd mention that he said it, so we know that it means nothing, lol...

esool

I think I like the raise and I would have folded to the reraise also.
I don't feel that you could try and limp in at the final table since you are just asking to be raised in that case. 3 x the blinds is reasonable and if I do not know this player then I am folding 77. (yes his table talk has influenced me.) I agree that at 10x the BB I am not going to panic but if I am at 5-6x the BB 77 becomes a push all in for me.
Just my $.02

Perhaps we should discuss the other players move with 66? How did he finish?

JonB

all_aces wrote:

I always make what I consider to be the best decision for the moment, regardless of where I'm at in the payscale. Of course, what 'I consider to be the best decision' is not always the best decision.

Well duh, if you don't consider where you are in the tournament then you will never make the best decision. Why not use that as another tool to help you decide better on whether you should go all in or not? If you are one spot away from the money are you gonna try a coin flip and see if 77 stands or should you just sit back. In my opinion that is one of the main difference between playing a ring game & tournament as you have to consider the pay scales! To not do that would be silly.

Jon

Unknown

Hi Jon,

I think you may have misunderstood me, or maybe not. No, I don't let where I'm at on the payscale affect my decisions... It doesn't matter to me if I finish just out of the money, when just inside the money is $200 or whatever... I'm not going to avoid positive situations just to 'sneak into the money'.

Many players don't play this way, and I respect that. It's just not for me. However, I certainly do take note of the fact that OTHER players may be concerned about merely making it into the money, and that they might play tighter than usual because of this. These are the people I tighten up against when they're in a pot. I had assumed (incorrectly) that my opponent was one of these 'I just want to sneak into the money' players, so when he moved in over the top of me, I assumed he had the goods.

Regards,
all_aces,
silly as usual.

Dave Scharf

More and more I am getting my head around that fact that a play that favours a top three finish will tend to give you much better long term EV than a play that will get you into the money. The problem is, I can't figure out a formula. So what I do is this: I guess. Do I feel that winning this pot with my 52% edge will give me a very good chance at a top three finish? If so, I probably take the gamble because finishing in the top three spots 52 % of the time will be A LOT more profitable than getting there only 15% of the time and getting to 10th 90 % of the time.

Unknown

You're right, I should have called. I agree with your assessment that if winning a coin-flip will probably get you to a top-three finish, then you should flip the coin, regardless of how close you are to the bubble.

The problem in this particular case was that I didn't think it would be a coin-flip... I had him on an overpair, and I was wrong. :frown:

I like the way you worded that 'top 3' type of thinking though, and I'll work it, even more, into my game.

Cheers,
all_aces

Dave Scharf

Sorry... I would have folded. I play the hand exactly the way you do.

I intended an observation about "where you are in the money." The only place I ever as is "X" number of spots out of the top three.