Calling Odds With Bottom Pair
Something that keeps popping up lately playing ring games. I've been playing .10/.25 and increasing my roll at a decent rate (decent = not losing) and keep running in to a similar situation.
I'm the sb or bb, someone makes it 3xbb from mp and gets one caller from lp. I'll have something somewhat ridiculous like K8s or a low connector like 56. Flop will come and I'll hit bottom pair. I check, initial raiser will bet out, either same as pf or 5-6xbb. lp calls and I fold. It may just be variance, but lately, 8 out of 10 times that turn is hitting my two pair or trips, and the action explodes.
Is this a flaw in my game that I should be changing? Am I being too predictable or is this a reasonable spot to be folding in? Are the odds justified to call to the turn (and I know that's a loaded question because the implied odds depend greatly on what type of player I'm up against, not to mention the possibility I can make them fold should a card that looks scary hit)?
I'm the sb or bb, someone makes it 3xbb from mp and gets one caller from lp. I'll have something somewhat ridiculous like K8s or a low connector like 56. Flop will come and I'll hit bottom pair. I check, initial raiser will bet out, either same as pf or 5-6xbb. lp calls and I fold. It may just be variance, but lately, 8 out of 10 times that turn is hitting my two pair or trips, and the action explodes.
Is this a flaw in my game that I should be changing? Am I being too predictable or is this a reasonable spot to be folding in? Are the odds justified to call to the turn (and I know that's a loaded question because the implied odds depend greatly on what type of player I'm up against, not to mention the possibility I can make them fold should a card that looks scary hit)?
Comments
Yes...calling out of position with K8s or low connecting cards
What you're seeing is just variance. If you were to chart it, you would find that you miss A LOT more than you would have hit.
Still, I don't mind defending in SB or BB with such cards IF
-bettor is known to be very loose aggressive
-caller is a calling station
-both have stacks at LEAST 20x the original bet and so do I
That way, if I did call, and I did hit nicely, I could move forward with the hand on the implied odds from both players. Can be extremely profitable.
Otherwise, if I missed or hit too light (like bottom pair on the flop), I'll fold.
You should print this an frame this. I think it is probably the smartest thing you have ever said :-)
No, I think the smartest thing I ever said was "Mom, can we sell Steve to the gypsies?"