Skill or Luck, another study

screenmanscreenman
in General Poker Chat
Here is another article about the studies of the question Poker skill or luck.

Poker a Skill Game, Cigital Study Flawed

This is one of those question the will never be answered, at least not in our lifetime. Neither side of the argument will ever fold to the others evidence. Can anyone deny that luck enters any game of Skill? In golf, most of the majors are won by one or two strokes. Hitting a ball 300 yards to an area 20 to 30 yards wide, missing numerous obstacles along the path takes skill. Has anyone seen a bad bounce? Has anyone seen a fortuitous bounce? Has anyone seen a lip-out? Any of these can make the difference in a win or a loss. But skill gives you the best chance to get lucky. That is why you constantly see the pros at the final table.

Comments

  • JimmyHoJimmyHo
    if you make it to the river, luck plays a very small part of the game. Its a card game, so luck will always be a factor. Just ask the guy who lost with four aces on the flop to runner runner royal flush.
  • OPRCOPRC
    Personally, i have never debated whether poker is a skill or a luck game, i think it is a bit of both. But, that being said, i think there is more skill involved than luck. I'd say 70 - 30
  • MiloMilo
    The run of the cards is luck. The play of those cards is skill. At least, it's supposed to be . . .






    Nuff said . . .
  • DennisGDennisG
    "Luck" is a relative term...I feel that if you look at short term...you can see what appears to be luck. Over the long term (a much bigger sample size) you can see how skill is the only thing you should be worried about.

    I like to define it this way (when asked)...Lucky people gamble, others play poker. Often I get people adamant that it is all luck...And when they won't play me for money, I use the coin flip at par (x10 flips), then at 2:1 (x10 flips) to show the difference.
  • PokerKaiPokerKai
    I get annoyed by these skill/luck arguements because people really arent arguing about whether poker is a game of skill...they are arguing more about the threshold of skill needed to categorize a game of skill.

    The true test to determine whether a game is one of skill is to find out whether it is possible for a participant to...
    1. Intentionally be more successful then a participant who is playing randomly
    2. Intentionally be less successful then a participant who is playing randomly

    Lets look at a simpler game like Rock Paper Scissors.

    If a random player plays against a normal player, we can assume that he is going to win exactly one third of the time, tie one third of the time and win one third of the time.

    If I am intentionally trying to be more successful then the random player, its possible for me to do so if I notice patterns in my opponents behaviour. For example, if I notice my opponent always picks rock, I can simply be more successful then the random guy by picking paper every time. Whereas the random player will still only win one third of the time against the same player. Theres the skill.

    If I am intentionally trying to be less successful, I can simply just lose every hand to the same rock player by picking scissors every time.

    Lets look at Roulette.

    Assuming the wheel is perfect and randomly distributes the ball between all 38 (Im assuming a wheel with 0 and 00) if our random player just picks a number, we can safely assume he is going to win only 1/38 times.

    Now suppose we are trying to beat that benchmark, is there a way to go about that by picking amongst the same 38 numbers? Is there a way to go under that benchmark and be less sucessful? Nope. No skill there.

    What Im trying to get at is that this whole search for whether a game is one of skill is a sham. People arent trying to prove whether poker is a game of skill or not, its clear to anybody that it is. What these studies are trying to do is decide whether poker reaches a certain threshold for their arbitrary criteria of skill.
  • NoVeLTeKNoVeLTeK
    its 100% luck ldo
  • GTA PokerGTA Poker
    blah blah blah -- is there a way to just repost every post from 4 years ago and avoid all the annoying typing?
  • blackmagiczblackmagicz
    GTA Poker wrote: »
    blah blah blah -- is there a way to just repost every post from 4 years ago and avoid all the annoying typing?

    You would be lucky to find such a way, but I know with your skill you would be able to figure it out.....
  • DennisGDennisG
    We could also copy and paste every subject from other forums, because, everything, at some point, has been discussed before, somewhere.

    If you have discussed it before, and don't wish to again...ignore it.

    Nothing personal, but this annoys me about every forum I have ever been on..."old timers" whining that things have been discussed before. Of course they have...so what?
  • CerberusCerberus
    People at work tend to rip on me for having a gambling problem. I explain that poker isn't gambling, it's a skill game. There is luck involved, but like the OP said, there is luck in all skill games. Anyone else remember Steve Smith's wonderful bank shot the sent the puck into his own net and the Flames to the Cup?

    The one thing I use to try and explain it is that over the long run you will, essentially, see every single possible hand from both sides of the equation. Those who play for pure luck will at best even out. Those who play with skill will win more when they have the best of it, win when they have the worst of it and lose less when they have the second best of it. Then their eyes cross and they pass out from blood loss due to trying to think about what I just said. :)
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