how about this hand
I can't remember all the details, but see if you guys can advise me on this hand.
The blinds are 100/200. I have around 4000 chips and the average stack is probably around 4500. I am in the big blind with Qh-Th. There are two limpers so I check. The flop comes Ah, Jh, Td. I bet 700. The first limper folds and the second one goes all-in. I forget how much he had, but I think it was around 6000.
So, would you have played the hand differently to this point? And would you call now?
I figured I was probably behind in the hand at this point, but I also figured I had a lot of outs. I decided to call. He had T-J offsuit. I got no help.
You always feel bad when you are knocked out of a tournament, but I'm not sure I should have gambled like this with my tournament life. However, I always hear you guys talking about pot odds and I think the pot odds may have agreed with a call. What do you guys think? Any advice would be appreciated.
The blinds are 100/200. I have around 4000 chips and the average stack is probably around 4500. I am in the big blind with Qh-Th. There are two limpers so I check. The flop comes Ah, Jh, Td. I bet 700. The first limper folds and the second one goes all-in. I forget how much he had, but I think it was around 6000.
So, would you have played the hand differently to this point? And would you call now?
I figured I was probably behind in the hand at this point, but I also figured I had a lot of outs. I decided to call. He had T-J offsuit. I got no help.
You always feel bad when you are knocked out of a tournament, but I'm not sure I should have gambled like this with my tournament life. However, I always hear you guys talking about pot odds and I think the pot odds may have agreed with a call. What do you guys think? Any advice would be appreciated.
Comments
In this case, I give myself 12 outs for sure (any king, any heart) and *maybe* 15 (any ten or any queen). Also, a king might split the pot.
You are facing a call of 3100 (the rest of your chips) into a pot of 5100. If your only out is hearts you are just shy of the odds to call. If you have more outs than that you have the odds.
But... do you want to call? You are getting all your money in with a VERY GOOD chance of going bust. If you fold you have 3100 chips left and the blinds are still low compared to your stack. I favour folding. You still have easily enough chips to compete.
In reality, you were a very slight favourite over his hand (52%). So, the call was OK. Veyr high variance, but OK. You got all your money in with the best of it. And, if you always do that in a tournament, in the long run, you will be fine.
My take: pot odds don't matter when it could be the end of the tournament for you if you lose.
He's either bluffing, or you are going to have to hit to beat him. You were correct in your assumption that you were behind in the hand. So you have to hit the turn or the river to stay alive.
If he has a set or 2 pr, he has a redraw that can still beat you. You have to hit your hand with one card without giving him a fh with the other (unless you hit the royal). In this case, an ace or queen would have saved you but I think you have to assume you have to hit the straight or flush. Is that a valid assumption?
So I figure you've got 12 outs (any heart and 3 non-heart kings), two times and he still has 3 outs (ten or jacks) as long as you don't hit your royal. Or you've got 11 outs against his 3 redraw outs plus 1 out where he has no redraws.
So it comes down to a coin toss at best. If you lose, you're out but he's still got enough chips to play on. I'm a conservative player - I don' t like those odds. Maybe I'm too conservative.
Could you have played differently preflop? A big raise may have knocked one of the limpers out. Would your JTo opponent fold? Is QTs a good hand for a preflop raise? Could one of the players be slowplaying a big pocket pair?
What does everyone else think? Am I looking at this all wrong?
Incidentally, how do we feel about my bet on the flop? Too small, too large? Should I not have bet? I suppose there's no right answer, I'm just curious if anyone has an opinion on it.