Too Cautious?
Playing in a live game last night. $1/$2 NLHE. Bought in for $100. Had rolled it up to a little over $400. 2nd to last hand of the night for me as I had said I was leaving. 5 handed, I'm the BB. UTG folds, CO limps, BTN limps, SB calls and I look down to find QQ. I raise to $12. CO calls, BTN folds, SB calls.
It's only my second time playing with this group of players. SB has shown himself willing to play any two cards, so I'm not surprised by his call. CO, however, has shown himself to be solid and somewhat tricky. I'm 100% certain he limped in with some sort of monster, knowing that SB would probably raise. I've got him on one of three hands: AA, AKs, KK.
Flop comes AhQd3s. SB checks, I check, CO bets $15. SB folds; I call.
Everything in my head is telling me he has AA. I can't explain it, but it's just the way everything played out.
Turn 7s. I bet $20. CO quickly calls.
River 5d. No flush, so the only three hands beating me are 24 or 46, neither of which he has shown a willingness to play, and AA. Something still keeps telling me he has AA. I bet $75. CO thinks for about 3 seconds and raises to $175 total.
What would you do?
My reads on everyone were crazy last night. Managed to get out of the way with some very good holdings when I felt I was beat and each time I was right.
What did I do: I flat called. My thinking was this: with how good my reads were all night, I'm either winning a very nice pot because I'm wrong or I'm losing a very nice pot but still leaving the night having doubled my money because I was right.
Good news bad news situation and it's up to you to decide which is which.
He flipped over AKs and I took down a $457 pot.
Was I too cautious? Did I overthink it? Should I have said screw my read I've got a set? Any input would be awesome. Thanks!
It's only my second time playing with this group of players. SB has shown himself willing to play any two cards, so I'm not surprised by his call. CO, however, has shown himself to be solid and somewhat tricky. I'm 100% certain he limped in with some sort of monster, knowing that SB would probably raise. I've got him on one of three hands: AA, AKs, KK.
Flop comes AhQd3s. SB checks, I check, CO bets $15. SB folds; I call.
Everything in my head is telling me he has AA. I can't explain it, but it's just the way everything played out.
Turn 7s. I bet $20. CO quickly calls.
River 5d. No flush, so the only three hands beating me are 24 or 46, neither of which he has shown a willingness to play, and AA. Something still keeps telling me he has AA. I bet $75. CO thinks for about 3 seconds and raises to $175 total.
What would you do?
My reads on everyone were crazy last night. Managed to get out of the way with some very good holdings when I felt I was beat and each time I was right.
What did I do: I flat called. My thinking was this: with how good my reads were all night, I'm either winning a very nice pot because I'm wrong or I'm losing a very nice pot but still leaving the night having doubled my money because I was right.
Good news bad news situation and it's up to you to decide which is which.
He flipped over AKs and I took down a $457 pot.
Was I too cautious? Did I overthink it? Should I have said screw my read I've got a set? Any input would be awesome. Thanks!
Comments
I would definitely just bet bet bet, hoping to get this all in.
And yes, if I lose set under set...oh well. Get your money in there! (given how this hand was played)
You and CO both think SB is a Lagtard. SB knows he is a lagtard most likely and realizes CO may be trapping by just limping. Now because you raise out of the BB the CO now if he is a tricky/smart player will sense you have a decent hand (maybe a big ace or pair). In this situation AA or KK will definitely re-raise to isolate because you don't want the Lagtard getting priced in with any two for cheap and having your big pair cracked.
Now the key to this hand from my perspective is the flop.
AQ3 rainbow. Now for the most part 90% of 1/2 players do not ever bet out a set. Reason being is because they still not able to hand read that good and figure out what you could possibly have. He is betting the flop because he has 1 pair and is scared you may have KJ, J10 and the magical straight will show up on the turn, which in any case you are drawing to 6 outs and he has technically one of them so now we are down to 5 if he puts you on a drawy type hand.
Here is where you have to do analysis on his bet:
Preflop action - 12SB, 12CO, 12BB (+2 bucks from BTN which I don't think is relevant)
Flop action - checked to CO who bets out 15 into 36 basically 1/3 pot bet. Which signals to me right away that he has hit the board but is not really strong so he wants to keep the pot small.
Any monster on that flop is looking (2pair/set) is looking to build a pot so they would check (IE exactly what you did) .
Now the turn gives a possible flush draw on board (so for arguement sake you are holding now a straight draw/flush draw type hand KJs) Your lead out here should have been raised by any set or 2 pair because now there are more ways for your hand to win. If the CO recognizes this he would have raised, instead he just calls which further strengthens your hand as now he is scared why you lead out.
River 5d, basic brick. No straight draw is playing this far (well maybe the lagtard SB but we got rid of him). Also think of the action on the flop....are you telling me CO bet a crazy combo draw on the flop, or that he actually called preflop with 26, 46 etc....no very likely in a 1/2 game.
His raise on the river in this instance is his way of trying to take down the pot. He has recognized you have an ace most likely or a busted draw (which he is wrong on both accounts but your lead on the turn would suggest a possible semibluff). And figures you can't call the extra 100 on top.
Now if you don't have a set of Queens here on the flop I instanta fold this hand cause there are two many hands AX that would beat me based on the preflop limp then call. Other than that I fist pump and get it in.
In this hand I would play it as follows:
1. Raise preflop
2. Lead the flop to see if villian has an ace. In this case it works 2 fold. You really aren't going to get action anyways if he has junk so it stops the hand right there and who cares or you define his hand range to Ace-X and now you can punish him for limping instead of folding.
3. On the turn I check to represent my C-bet gone bad, and let the villian take a stab at it (which 90% of the time they do because everyone thinks C-bets are air)
4. On the river dependant on how much (if any) the villian bets on the turn, providing there are no scare cards on the river (to block your action, J/10,spade,etc) you can go for a check raise if you are certain villian will value bet the river or you can lead out and when you get re-raised you can shove.
This will help you build a pot and better define his range/holding to help you manipulate action and get the most out of your set.