Coin flips
In MTT's how often are we trying to avoid coinflips??
Couple of examples. Effective stack sizes:
Hero: 2750
Villain: 1650
Hero picks up AJs on the button, and villain has limped from MP+1, hero raises to 3xBB = 300 and action folds to villain who re-raises all in. In this spot unless he's slowplaying a big pair (pretty unlikely aka I'm not giving this player too much credit) I figure I am up against 7's or 8's in this spot. Or some sort of middle pair. Do I fold to this re-raise or call? Knowing it's very likely a flip?? I ended up calling and he flipped over 8's and I lost to the flip crippling my stack
Second example:
Hero: 1705
Villain: 4100
I'm now the short stack at the table and there are two limpers who limp in for 150 each in front of me when I pick up K9s in the SB. I'm not too happy about my hand but with me being the short stack and no significant strength shown I decided to shove pre-flop. I get called by 7's and get knocked out.
I'm just wondering if my tournament poker sucks because I should be playing a bit more tight with my pre-flop shoves and/or if I am overvaluing hands like AJs.
Any thoughts on these spots? And strategies people might use to avoid these (marginal?) coin flip situations?
Couple of examples. Effective stack sizes:
Hero: 2750
Villain: 1650
Hero picks up AJs on the button, and villain has limped from MP+1, hero raises to 3xBB = 300 and action folds to villain who re-raises all in. In this spot unless he's slowplaying a big pair (pretty unlikely aka I'm not giving this player too much credit) I figure I am up against 7's or 8's in this spot. Or some sort of middle pair. Do I fold to this re-raise or call? Knowing it's very likely a flip?? I ended up calling and he flipped over 8's and I lost to the flip crippling my stack
Second example:
Hero: 1705
Villain: 4100
I'm now the short stack at the table and there are two limpers who limp in for 150 each in front of me when I pick up K9s in the SB. I'm not too happy about my hand but with me being the short stack and no significant strength shown I decided to shove pre-flop. I get called by 7's and get knocked out.
I'm just wondering if my tournament poker sucks because I should be playing a bit more tight with my pre-flop shoves and/or if I am overvaluing hands like AJs.
Any thoughts on these spots? And strategies people might use to avoid these (marginal?) coin flip situations?
Comments
Card Player Magazine - To Flip or Not to Flip by Matt Matros - Card Player Magazine Article - CardPlayer.com
Then you are really just playing more like a math robot than a poker player.....
Remember the risk of ruin, you too can run bad, and taking too many flips increases that possibility.
We should sit down sometime and have a good discussion..
Edit.... I replaced Blondefish's original post here by accident......
Multiple apologies to Blondefish, I accidentally clicked on Edit rather than Quote and ended up saving my post rather than his.... Not sure if there is a way to get your original post back Buddy, do you have a copy be any chance......
How would you have played if you had known for sure what he had? Let's say for the sake of the argument we know he has pocket 7-s. Given that we're not very near the bubble I would say this is a simple pot odds-problem. Everyone else has folded and you have perfect information:
* The pot is 50+100+100+300+1550=2100
* It costs you 1350 to call - that gives you pot odds of about 1,5 to 1
* That means if you can win 4 out of 10 times, then you will gain more chips in the long run by calling.
* Since you're only a slight underdog here, you can expect to win MORE than 40% of the time, so a call is definately justified. Of course you're going to loose and have just over 1000 in chips left about half of the time. But when you win you have increased your stack with over 60%. That looks like a good option to me.
The only problem is you really don't know what he has (even if you were right this time). When calculating the odds you better count on that you will in fact face an overpair from time to time. Or AQ or AK which both have you dominated. Harrington has some good examples in his book when he demonstrates how to do the math and reach a reasonable conclusion about what to do, even when you're not sure what your opponent holds. In this particular situation I would guess that it might still be a call perhaps, but a more marginal one.
If we have seen him playin' big PP:s from early position like this before I would be more drawn towards a fold.
I seem to hear them talked about the most so I figure these are definitely worthwhile books to read over summer break.
Both are good for beginers to get a feel for a game. But don't get attached too much to them since both advocate cards based strategies( or survival mode as another term) which is a road to nowhere in tourneys. You have to learn to take a shots at others with no cards if you want to accomulate chips instead of sitting and watching your stack diminish as you wait for " good hands". You simply will not be able to keep up with the blinds.
I'm not sure if I agree with you when it comes to Harrington. He has many examples in his books when he justifies pushes with very weak hands, especially when your M is down under 10. He is crystal clear that you have to take your chances BEFORE you have been so shortstacked that no one will be afraid of it anymore. Sure Harrington plays tight, but he's also very "math oriented", meaning he's willing to gamble anytime you can prove it's ev+
All his examples are based on his preflop hand and its not enough to build a dominating stack early. His bluffs also only come to typical blind steal and continuation bet, also not enough. He avoids such stack building bluffs as resteal and informational bluffs in early stages because he's so math oriented.
I can remember reading this (the idea, not the article) on 2+2 a few years ago and then never finding the thread again.. Thanks for posting it.
Seriously, it completely defines why you need to embrace flipping the coin in a tournament. The summary is that for every flip you pass up, you need to find yourself in a 60/40 situation relatively soon or else passing on the flip was the wrong play.
Well belive it or don't, what fucking ever. It's your money.
Edit: That being said, I raise, reraise and shove AK and QQ like there's no tomorrow, not because I want to flip with them but because I think they'll dominate the messed up ranges my opponents are calling with
However if I think op is pushing with something I likely have dominated, ie he may be pushing with any A and I have AK/AQ, I call all day long. Depends on the op, the situation, etc... I think too many players will call off their stack on a likely flip too often. Usually I find that it is the players who don't have confidence in their play post flop that get into this or perhaps those that simply don't have the patience for deeper stacked tournament poker. YMMV..