Hello. First post and question
Hi all!
I am excited to have found this site. The search button will be my friend but I have one quick question to ask. I have read a few poker books but would like to know what has been your best method of learing to calculate pot odds and how many outs you have etc. I know I have to learn this to increase my skill level. I am new to the game.
Thanks in advance
I am excited to have found this site. The search button will be my friend but I have one quick question to ask. I have read a few poker books but would like to know what has been your best method of learing to calculate pot odds and how many outs you have etc. I know I have to learn this to increase my skill level. I am new to the game.
Thanks in advance
Comments
Practice makes perfect.
For example with AK of hearts on a 2h 3h 4c 9s board facing a pot sized bet. Suppose we put our opponent on two black jacks. We count the three aces, three kings, four 5s, and 8 remaining hearts to give us 18 cards left in the 44 card deck that makes us a winner. Leaving 26 cards in the deck that make us a loser. So we win 18 times against 26 losess.
Suppose the pot is 100 and our opponent made a pot sized bet of 100. So it costs us 100 to try and win 200 (the pot plus our opponents bet). If we compare that to our ratio...
18 times out of 44 we will win 200 giving us an expectiation of +$3600
26 times out of 44 we will lose 100 giving us an expecation of -$2600
...giving us an overall expectation over a 44 time trial of +$1000...and expecation for this single hand of +$22
So given those pot odds we should call.
Keeping in mind this doesnt take into a count all sort of other things like implied odds, fold equity, the fact we are usually dealing with a range of oppoennt hands rather then a single definitive hand...etc etc.
Yes, Good players mostly think like this.
That was an awsome post PokerKai... I shipped you some casino cash to play around with.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability_(Texas_hold_%27em)
Hitting either (over)card (say you're holding Ace-King with a board of cards all lower than king) is roughly 13% for either the turn or river and 24% if you look at both as a single probability (like going all-in after the flop.)
Similarly, an outside straight has about 17% on the turn or river, and 31% for both. A flush offers odds of about 19% for the turn and river, and 35% of filling up your flush on either the turn or river.
Generally if you contribute less than one eight to the pot for the overpair, on sixth for the outside straight, and one fifth for the flush you'll be ahead.
You can also flip the logic around and bet more than these percentages when you think your opponent is on such a draw. For the most part, if you have a made hand and make it more expensive than one fifth of the pot for your opponent to stay in the hand, you're making a profit (also they may fold, you always win those.)
Basically, if your contribution to the pot is lower than the odds being offered you, the call is mathematically correct, assuming win the hand with that straight or flush or whatnot.
PokerKai gives an excellent example of the nut flush draw with two overcards. You have a 39.13% chance of improving to a winning hand, and you'd be contributing 33% to the pot ($100 to win a total pot of $300)
I won't get into implied odds in detail, but you need to be careful calling bets after the flop. Just because the odds are there after the flop, doesn't they still will be after the turn. But when considering an all in bet, which is common in tournaments, these numbers are very helpful.
I do think this way, but its on a very subliminal level. Once you understand the inner workings of the math it no longer becomes a case of calculating it on the fly during the hand. Its kinda like learning your multiplication tables as a kid. Learning it takes a bit but once you get it, you dont really have to do the math in your head anymore, you just know the answer.