Have you ever flopped a Royal Flush?
I was playing in a micro-stakes SnG at Pokerstars last night and in one hand I ended up all-in with one other player. I had A-Q(os) and my opponent had A-10(d). The flop came down J-Q-K of diamonds for his royal flush. At first I noticed the queen and thought I was in good shape by hitting one of cards. Then the reality of what happened hit me and I couldn't believe my eyes.
BTW, does anyone know the odds of this happening? I looked on the net and saw figures anywhere from 8,000/1 to 850,000/1. The first seems too low, and the second seems too high.
BTW, does anyone know the odds of this happening? I looked on the net and saw figures anywhere from 8,000/1 to 850,000/1. The first seems too low, and the second seems too high.
Comments
1 / 649,740
knocked off 2 in one shot. good fun.
congrats. haven't seen the royal yet.
Suited Pair:
[ ] read thread
[ ] showed me nipple ring
only one of those fails can be redeemed..get on it immediately, plz!!
Oh, don't congratulate me -- I lost to the RF.
I've never had a royal flush.
The closest I've had is a straight flush to the king. It wasn't flopped but was one of those hands where everybody got something and they thought they had the best hand. I won a 24,000+ chip pot (when everybody had started with 2,000 chips). It certainly helped me get to the final table.
Thanks to Kristy_Sea for letting me know what the true odds are. I certainly trust K_S to tell me the truth.
I can't decide which is better for me overall..showing you the answer and math via link..
Or enjoying your shell shock and paranoia?
Fwiw, I answered your last thread as best I could..and seriously..read some ghost text.
I've been welcoming you the whole time...That's the right answer, promise!
Kristy is absolutely right with 1 in 649,740 if the question is 'what is the probability of being dealt 5 cards and it being a royal flush?' The math being:
1 in ((52/20) x (51/4) x (50/3) x (49/2) x (48/1))
Of course, in a HE/NLHE context, you would always have to see the flop to make the equation correct (just holding :as:ts or :ad:kd doesn't guarantee a flop is coming or that you'll be in it).
If your question is what were the villian's odds of flopping a royal in that specific scenario given that he was already holding 2 to a royal and was going to the flop, the answer is 1 in 19,600.
1 in ((50/3) x (49/2) x (48/1))
Thanks for the great answer. I see what you're saying about the odds in my situation being 1 in 19,600, versus getting the RF dealt to them in a game of basic 5-card stud.
No, Lantern is right from the first person perspective..but we don't know our opponents cards.
Do you want to know the odds that they have the two cards needed for a royal if the board provides one? (edit: basic 1/1500ish right?) What are you trying to figure out here?
Yeah - just what is the question here?
Since they were both all-in, I presume both of their hole cards were exposed and the question was regarding the probability of the royal flopping from that point of knowledge forward.
I don't think this is what he's asking ... which is good because there is no firm answer to this. Theoretically, it would be 1 in 1,081.
1 in ((47/2) x (46/1)) (52 cards - 3 royal flushing cards on board - 2 cards in your hand which you know are not part of the potential royal)
However, realistically, it would not be 1 in 1,081. The probability of the villain having gone all-in with :2h:7s or :js:5h is clearly not the same as him having pushed with the needed :ad:10d. But how much more likely is the latter? Who knows? Depends on the player and the situation.
Sadly, it was at a micro-limit game. Would be nice to have a hand like that at a higher limit table.....Maybe someday.
As for flopping a Royal? No, but I've had a few.
But here's one to think about. Ever play Stud and have your 4 up cards show quads? I once had xxTTTT (of course everybody folded on 6th).
Though I would throw this one in too..
6max SnG variance is a bitch...not all variance obviously.