Bleeding chips or a sensible draw?

ScottyZ

Very early (5th hand) in a $5 SNG. Free play from the BB, flop the 2nd nut flush draw, and pick up a gutshot on the turn in addition.

What do you think of these calls?

Considering alternative plays, is there any point you'd fold this hand? If you'd play it more aggressively instead, exactly when and how much do you bet?

ScottyZ

PokerStars Game #332816109: Tournament #1185802, Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2004/03/13 - 13:21:31 (ET)
Table '1185802 1' Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: sbel (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: shomeriva (1480 in chips)
Seat 4: snake eye 73 (1480 in chips)
Seat 5: ILike2Gamble (1480 in chips)
Seat 6: ScottyZ (1500 in chips)
Seat 7: fantasygirl2 (1120 in chips)
Seat 8: shinxi (1200 in chips)
Seat 9: DD Diamonds (3740 in chips)
ILike2Gamble: posts small blind 10
ScottyZ: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ScottyZ [7d Kd]
fantasygirl2: folds
shinxi: calls 20
DD Diamonds: folds
sbel: folds
shomeriva: folds
snake eye 73: calls 20
ILike2Gamble: calls 10
ScottyZ: checks
*** FLOP *** [5h 3d Qd]
ILike2Gamble: checks
ScottyZ: checks
shinxi: checks
snake eye 73: bets 60
ILike2Gamble: folds
ScottyZ: calls 60
shinxi: folds
*** TURN *** [5h 3d Qd] [4s]
ScottyZ: checks
snake eye 73: bets 100
ScottyZ: calls 100
*** RIVER *** [5h 3d Qd 4s] [Jh]
ScottyZ: checks
snake eye 73: bets 100
ScottyZ: folds
snake eye 73 collected 400 from pot
snake eye 73: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 400 | Rake 0
Board [5h 3d Qd 4s Jh]
Seat 1: sbel folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: shomeriva folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: snake eye 73 (button) collected (400)
Seat 5: ILike2Gamble (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 6: ScottyZ (big blind) folded on the River
Seat 7: fantasygirl2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: shinxi folded on the Flop
Seat 9: DD Diamonds folded before Flop (didn't bet)

esool

Instead of checking I think I would bet 60 for info on the flop.
4th street, I would bet $80 if he raises me then I fold..

vinsanity

I think I would've folded on the turn because I don't think the implied odds are there for you to call the 100 bet. I think either he's playing his position or he's got a Q. Either way he's not likely to pay you off if you hit and bet. And if check, he'd probably check it down also. Your gut shot would put a 4 card straight on the board and players are usually aware of flushes. That being said, I'm gulity of playing lots of hands exactly the way you did. Those flush draws can seem like an oasis in the middle of the desert sometimes.

I think if you were to play aggressively it would be on the turn also. I wouldn't bet or raise on the flop because there are players acting after you. There's always the chance that you get a free card or somebody else calls. The turn also gave you a pretty good scare card to semi bluff with.

ScottyZ

I think I would've folded on the turn because I don't think the implied odds are there for you to call the 100 bet.

I think I've probably got 12 good outs (15 if the King is good), so I think I even have correct *pot* odds to call at that point. The pot offers 3:1 and I'm getting almost exactly that for drawing odds. So (by definition) my implied odds must be at least as good. Although, as you said, it is possibly unlikely that I will get paid off if I hit because of the scary board texture.

However, that's *still* not necessarily justification or a call. This is one of those situations where (in a tournament) you might choose to pass on a higher +EV play in order to not risk chips.

ScottyZ

vinsanity

yeah, I didn't count the kings which would make a difference. I was however thinking more in terms of effective odds on the flop. Your effective odds were not enough to call the flop AND turn and you would need some implied odds to make it correct. But that's a moot point cuz I didn't count the kings. 12 outs with 2 cards, you'd only need 1.2:1 so you'd be correct to call the flop and turn up to 340. But to echo your thoughts, this early in a tourney its better to save your chips plus he could've limped in with Axs.

ScottyZ

Well, computing effective odds is next to impossible in NL, because you never know how much the subsequent bets are going to be. However, if I assume that his betting 60 on the flop will slide up to 120 on the turn, it's exactly as if we're playing limit poker, and you normally *do* get the right effective odds to draw for flushes (even forgetting about the overcard K) in limit poker, except in rare cases when very little money goes in pre-flop.

One annoying thing about the actual hand was that I doubled up a few hands later when I got all-in pre flop with KK vs AJ. Could have used that extra 160 and turned it into 320. 8)

ScottyZ

SupaMuncher

ScottyZ wrote:

Well, computing effective odds is next to impossible in NL, because you never know how much the subsequent bets are going to be.

Did you mean to say "implied odds" there, instead?

ScottyZ

I meant effective odds (in response to vinsanity), although that's typically a limit poker concept.

What I meant was you can't really compute effective odds in NL because you don't know how much (or if) your opponent will bet on the turn.

ScottyZ

vinsanity

Effective odds and Implied odds are both rough approximations that require judgement. It really depends on how well you know your opponent. But it can be helpful to estimate your effective or implied odds. If you know the odds, then you can figure out how much you can call on the next round or how much you need your opponent to call if you hit. for example, in this case, you'd be correct in calling both rounds if the bet was 340 or less on the turn. This at least gives you a number to evaluate your opponent against.

giggles

Since it's only a $5 SNG, for kicks, I'd check-raise the turn for a ton of chips (leave enough for a river bet in case he calls). See how much heat he can take. 8)

ScottyZ

Since it's only a $5 SNG, this is exactly why I would *not* do as you suggest. Why? In a $5 SNG, lots of players would probably still call an all-in bet with crap like QT.

[Hint: this is why I think the implied odds are better than they would be in a "solid" game]

If your point is that you don't care about the $5.50, then I guess from your point of view, my mistake was entering the tournament in the first place.

ScottyZ