Tracking cards during a dealer shuffle
In the book "Bringing Down The House", the authour talks about how good blackjack card counters can follow a card (or a group of cards) through the deck as it is being shuffled. He implies that it is not a matter of having super-human eyesight, but of knowing how certain shuffles tend to move a card. I've got a bunch of questions about this, for anyone who would like to throw in their two cents:
1. Can this really be done with accuracy? If so, how is it done?
2. Would it be ethical to do this when playing poker?
3. How much of an advantage would doing this give you?
1. Can this really be done with accuracy? If so, how is it done?
2. Would it be ethical to do this when playing poker?
3. How much of an advantage would doing this give you?
Comments
I don't know how you would learn this other than practice and a keen eye.
You would have an advantage if you could track aces for sure.
Thats my 2 cents
:canada:
I am quite skeptical that the card counters RELY on this method for much of their wagering...they may use it occasionally, but the primary weapon is the COUNT (adjusted for cards remainiing) and varying the bet size accordingly. I also suspect that it would be more useful in single and double-deck rather than 6-deck games. The obvious limitation being that there is far less time (# of hands) to take advantage of any positive counts with single/double deck games because shuffles are always just hands away. The card tracking method would also really only apply to a hand or two (presumably) when the counter could identify a card or series of cards coming out. On the other hand, the positive count allows him to keep betting big many hands in a row (so long as the count stays favourable) and it takes away the guesswork. You only need to be one card off in your count to have things go awfully wrong on a hand....say you are 3rd base and are dealt two fives....dealer has an 8....you FIGURE an Ace is next card coming when it is your turn to hit, so you double down....you catch a 4 for 14 and dealer gets the Ace on the next card...YOU LOSE :frown: . Now, you probably didn't bet the farm here anyway, cuz your initial wager would have been made several cards ago (depending on # of players at the table and depending on your position) so
unless your COUNT was big anyway, you probably didn't bet big. I'm rambling...the point is, card tracking alone is very limited ...it relies on seeing groupings of cards come out together and adjusting play accordingly... maybe it can be used in conjunction with other tactics, but I'm skeptical of its overall value. Frankly, it would be best used by someone at first base, but typically counters like to play 3rd base. Just my thougths...happy to debate / discuss further.
Absolutely. There would be nothing wrong with it as you are using a skill that you have developed and that other players are not prevented from employing themselves (except through their own laziness or lack of training/practice/discipline etc). You are gaining an advantage (maybe) but you aren't gaining an UNFAIR advantage - you aren't doing something that no one else at the table COULD also be doing...whereas if you were dealing (deck in hand) and dealing seconds, obviously this would be unfair on this particular hand as no one else would have the same opportunity on that particular hand.
Limited, in my view......because once again, you only need be one card off in your tracking and you make a big mistake as a result. I think you are better off using other skills - reading players, observing tendencies, analyzing situations, rather than guessing at what 1 particular card one player MAY hold. You don't know what his second card is, so in some situations you are no further ahead......Let's say you flop the nut straight, but it has 3 spades. You bet, and the guy you KNOW has the Ace of spades (and an unkown 2nd card) raises you.....does he have the flush already? Do you lay down your hand now? Would you really do that? Cuz maybe the ace of spades went to the next player and this guy flopped a smaller straight....I dunno, it's your call but I would not rely on this except on very rare occasions.
In addition, in the blackjack section I indicated that the tracking is facilitated by observing and recognizing groups of cards but in poker (holdem in particular) you don't get to see that down cards, PLUS a new shuffle happens after EVERY HAND so I think it would be real difficult to employ this technique with much success. Open to debate.