Would you call or fold?
This is a 45 person sit-n-go; I am 1/9. Payouts start at 6th place. The table is rather passive at this point. I had not seen any hand with three players in pre-flop since the final table started. I included the results in white at the bottom for those who are curious, but I am more interested in your analysis regardless of the actual results.
Full Tilt Poker Game #9797398958: $10 + $1 Sit & Go (74558384), Table 2 - 400/800 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:12:42 ET - 2009/01/01
Seat 1: willzz337 (6,625)
Seat 2: HERO (15,670)
Seat 3: piqueetpique (5,025)
Seat 4: gonulbirol (2,100)
Seat 5: zarar123 (7,160)
Seat 6: az woman (4,940)
Seat 7: Stonedducks (9,600)
Seat 8: Nutz1_River0 (7,780)
Seat 9: thatkath (8,600)
HERO posts the small blind of 400
piqueetpique posts the big blind of 800
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Qd Qc]
gonulbirol folds
zarar123 folds
az woman raises to 4,940, and is all in
Stonedducks raises to 9,600, and is all in
Nutz1_River0 folds
thatkath folds
willzz337 folds
HERO has 15 seconds left to act
HERO folds
piqueetpique folds
Stonedducks shows [Jh Js]
az woman shows [9s 9h]
Uncalled bet of 4,660 returned to Stonedducks
*** FLOP *** [2h 4d Tc]
*** TURN *** [2h 4d Tc] [Kd]
*** RIVER *** [2h 4d Tc Kd] [7h]
Stonedducks shows a pair of Jacks
az woman shows a pair of Nines
Stonedducks wins the pot (11,080) with a pair of Jacks
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 11,080 | Rake 0
Board: [2h 4d Tc Kd 7h]
Seat 1: willzz337 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: HERO (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: piqueetpique (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: gonulbirol didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: zarar123 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: az woman showed [9s 9h] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 7: Stonedducks showed [Jh Js] and won (11,080) with a pair of Jacks
Seat 8: Nutz1_River0 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: thatkath didn't bet (folded)
Full Tilt Poker Game #9797398958: $10 + $1 Sit & Go (74558384), Table 2 - 400/800 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:12:42 ET - 2009/01/01
Seat 1: willzz337 (6,625)
Seat 2: HERO (15,670)
Seat 3: piqueetpique (5,025)
Seat 4: gonulbirol (2,100)
Seat 5: zarar123 (7,160)
Seat 6: az woman (4,940)
Seat 7: Stonedducks (9,600)
Seat 8: Nutz1_River0 (7,780)
Seat 9: thatkath (8,600)
HERO posts the small blind of 400
piqueetpique posts the big blind of 800
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Qd Qc]
gonulbirol folds
zarar123 folds
az woman raises to 4,940, and is all in
Stonedducks raises to 9,600, and is all in
Nutz1_River0 folds
thatkath folds
willzz337 folds
HERO has 15 seconds left to act
HERO folds
piqueetpique folds
Stonedducks shows [Jh Js]
az woman shows [9s 9h]
Uncalled bet of 4,660 returned to Stonedducks
*** FLOP *** [2h 4d Tc]
*** TURN *** [2h 4d Tc] [Kd]
*** RIVER *** [2h 4d Tc Kd] [7h]
Stonedducks shows a pair of Jacks
az woman shows a pair of Nines
Stonedducks wins the pot (11,080) with a pair of Jacks
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 11,080 | Rake 0
Board: [2h 4d Tc Kd 7h]
Seat 1: willzz337 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: HERO (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 3: piqueetpique (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: gonulbirol didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: zarar123 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: az woman showed [9s 9h] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 7: Stonedducks showed [Jh Js] and won (11,080) with a pair of Jacks
Seat 8: Nutz1_River0 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 9: thatkath didn't bet (folded)
Comments
I have looked at the results...I think that the re-push tells you more about the persons strength of their hand. It tells me they're not comfortable with the particular hand they have, obviously it is still strong (10's, J's, QQ, AQ, AK). 3 out of the 5 hands that you put the person on you beat. I call.
stp
unless reraiser is pfr<10 then maybe but i probably still call
first in has 5bb reraiser has less then 10bb
the range is huge and this is a very profitable spot, you want to get it in here
if someone wants to take time to pokerstove, give 80% push for first Ai and 30 for the next lets see what the stats say
wow, i am surprised at the hands
however, it wouldn't change my response <5bb and <10bb is auto call with QQ
80 for 1st all in=17.8%
30 for 2nd all in=23.5%
qq=58.6%
sorry if that is wrong guys, still learning the pokerstove thing.
ak=43%
qq=56%
if you were thinking ace king for 2nd shove you still had the right price to call(if i calculated right that is:-[)
but ya waltsfriend that is a tough situation.
I wasn't really thinking about right price - because I agree that unless one of them has aces or kings I have that. I was more concerned about my position in the tournament as we approached the bubble.
this isnt a DoN
all the money is up top and plays like this get/keep you there
I'm with stp on this one esp. given you have no reads/stats/history with any of the players involved. Even if you know the re-pusher has AK, your equity in this pot is so high that I won't be able to find a fold.
1st 38%
2nd 25%
3rd 16%
4th 10%
5th 6%
6th 5%
You have a relatively short stack shoving, then a re-shove with a stack that is more than 50% your stack. I understand the concept of going for the win, but in this situation do we want to take a chance to either double up the shorter stack or even get crippled by calling the larger stack.
I don't think QQ plays well 3 handed, but based on action I have to put the first shove on A high, most likely AK-A10 (or maybe even smaller ace), then the reshove I put on a pair most likely 99-JJ as QQ+ will usually flat call to induce an additional caller.
With that deduction I make the call cause I know I am winning the side pot. No math needed here for me
Oh and if either one wakes up with KK or AA, so be it. Thats poker, you are still in with a decent stack and most likely will still make the money
Cheers
( Just editing my post as I noticed STP basically said the same thing (sorry didn't read all the posts just wanted to give my analysis)
Yes. You do want to take that chance. The probable edge is HUGE.
All that matters here is stack size compared to blinds.
With less then 5 blinds the push range is HUGE. The second stack repush range is also quite large with 10BB.
This is a call all the way down to 99 and AQs.
I think that calling range is too loose but I'm a tight player.
Something to keep in mind when you talk about push ranges,
1. It's the final table of a 45 person SNG, so that means there are some players who know what they are doing at this point.
2. You have to give credit to exactly what you said a wide range.
3. The second re-push range is polarized due to his stack size and the way he played the hand, its the classic "I have a pair and I don't want someone coming in with an ace"
Like I said further into my previous post I do make the call based on the scenario and stack sizes. I think in this case the second push with that stack size allows you to make this call with QQ, because you know barring KK or AA you are winning the side pot, and potentially racing for the main at worse case.
I would not be making this call with 22-1010 or A10-AQ....I am iffy on calling with JJ as well because the second re-shove scares me unless I have QQ+
retarded: what do you call assigning a range with no history on the player, if not guessing?
blondefish vs mad kristy
who's got the popcorn, moose? milo?
but gooooo Kristy, yayyyy Kristy:)
Yes, but he has a very sandy vagina so it equals out.
Edit: Even if you don't know the value of any variables, I guess x + y = z is still math...
he sounded like a dick and should apologize to blackmagicz
(edit: yaya, I always sound like a bitch..but I accept that I am one)
LOL....don't bring me into the middle of this one....LOL
wow great advice, Im going to rush right to your spamblog and get more more more!