massive overbet from uber lagtard
i'm curious how you would go about analyzing the following situation:
extremely loose shorthanded NL game. the game will probably be breaking up shortly.
villain #1 - extreme lagtard. games are built around this guy. you have a fair bit of history with this guy. in the past year the times you have played with him he must be down at least 10,000xBBs. it is hard to put him on a hand as he loves any 2 suited, any 2 big, any pair and position and prior or future action means absolutely nothing to him. he is a real bully at the table and loves to overbet. the overbet can be anything from the nuts to a good hand to bottom pair to a missed draw to total air. in the past most have avoided big confrontations with him without a good hand so it hasn't been easy to confirm exactly what those big bets mean. he is either BB or UTG here. he has around 200xBBs after multiple buy-ins and has been up and down all night.
villain #2 - a loose player but not too hard to read. over the past year he is likely up a fair bit in the games you have been in with him. he probably gets in a bit light PF but if he makes it to the river or puts in a big bet, he generally has the goods. generally he won't call your river bet unless there is a good chance you are beat and a raise definitely means you are beat. he is on the button. he has around 300xBBs and is up huge on the night after winning a couple monster pots.
you - are probably seen as too tight for this game. villain #1 has no respect for your game and believes he can bet you off any non-nut hand with another one of his patented big bets. villain #2 probably has some respect for your game and would only make it to the river against you with a pretty good hand. you are either SB or BB here. you have about 100xBBs and are slightly down for the night.
multi-way limped pot. you have complete garbage but the rainbow flop gives you trips with an Ace on board. you lead out with a smaller than pot bet and get called by 2 villains. pot is prob around 10xBBs.
turn brings another small card which could give one of them a flush draw or a straight draw. you let villain#1 take the lead. he does not disappoint. you both call. pot is prob around 35xBBs.
river brings a Q, not completing the flush and the straight draw also missed. you have low trips with AQ for kickers. you give villain #1 a chance to bluff at it one more time. he puts in 80xBBs, somewhere between 2 and 3 times the current pot. this is enough to put you all-in. villain #2 agonizes for some time trying to decide if he should call. someone else starts talking about the hand and villain #1 angrily tells him not to discuss the hand and then goes silent. after an eternity, villain #2 finally folds.
what do you do? and more importantly why? please show your reasoning.
extremely loose shorthanded NL game. the game will probably be breaking up shortly.
villain #1 - extreme lagtard. games are built around this guy. you have a fair bit of history with this guy. in the past year the times you have played with him he must be down at least 10,000xBBs. it is hard to put him on a hand as he loves any 2 suited, any 2 big, any pair and position and prior or future action means absolutely nothing to him. he is a real bully at the table and loves to overbet. the overbet can be anything from the nuts to a good hand to bottom pair to a missed draw to total air. in the past most have avoided big confrontations with him without a good hand so it hasn't been easy to confirm exactly what those big bets mean. he is either BB or UTG here. he has around 200xBBs after multiple buy-ins and has been up and down all night.
villain #2 - a loose player but not too hard to read. over the past year he is likely up a fair bit in the games you have been in with him. he probably gets in a bit light PF but if he makes it to the river or puts in a big bet, he generally has the goods. generally he won't call your river bet unless there is a good chance you are beat and a raise definitely means you are beat. he is on the button. he has around 300xBBs and is up huge on the night after winning a couple monster pots.
you - are probably seen as too tight for this game. villain #1 has no respect for your game and believes he can bet you off any non-nut hand with another one of his patented big bets. villain #2 probably has some respect for your game and would only make it to the river against you with a pretty good hand. you are either SB or BB here. you have about 100xBBs and are slightly down for the night.
multi-way limped pot. you have complete garbage but the rainbow flop gives you trips with an Ace on board. you lead out with a smaller than pot bet and get called by 2 villains. pot is prob around 10xBBs.
turn brings another small card which could give one of them a flush draw or a straight draw. you let villain#1 take the lead. he does not disappoint. you both call. pot is prob around 35xBBs.
river brings a Q, not completing the flush and the straight draw also missed. you have low trips with AQ for kickers. you give villain #1 a chance to bluff at it one more time. he puts in 80xBBs, somewhere between 2 and 3 times the current pot. this is enough to put you all-in. villain #2 agonizes for some time trying to decide if he should call. someone else starts talking about the hand and villain #1 angrily tells him not to discuss the hand and then goes silent. after an eternity, villain #2 finally folds.
what do you do? and more importantly why? please show your reasoning.
Comments
/g2
sorry Greg, with trips and an AQ kicker, all my money is going in the middle before he says bet. If he has a boat, so be it. Based on previous hands, would this player #1 slow play AA or QQ? he could have A or Q garbage for the boat but are you folding trips?? I think not. Pretty easy call in my opinion. As you say, give your chips a big kiss good bye and throw them in the middle.
After now reading the other responses, I have to agree, not much of a decision here. Not unless something was left out.
my post was not about me getting a good or bad result on this one hand but making a good decision based on the info available.
i'll add more detail.
villain #1, based on my read, definitely did not have AA or QQ. he would never slowplay these, IMO.
i mentioned villain #2 was not too hard to read. his agony told me he had at least 2pr. the length of time making his decision lead me to believe it was much more likekly he also had trips but was worried about his kicker. with me to act behind, he may be been concerned about a trap.
with that, does it not polarize villain #1's holdings to be either much better or much worse than my hand? if i'm getting about 1.4:1 on my money do i need to be 40% sure he is betting a worse hand to justify a call? or 60% sure i'm beat to justify a fold?
i think there is a very small chance he's got Ace-rag for the flopped full house, he may have turned a FH with a small pair or maybe he turned or rivered 2pr or the FH? i guess he could also have trips, in which case we would most likely chop. could he have called the small flop bet hoping to catch a draw on the turn? in my mind there was also the chance he was simply trying to bully a couple of players who are unlikely to call a big bet without something very close to the nuts.
do other factors warrant consideration here - it is a 5-handed game, soon to be breaking up, villain #1 is down a bit this game. (he also lost about 200xBBs to me the last time we played.) villain #1 has come dangerously close to pot-commiting himself in the event villain#2 decides to push.
why are you not check-raising here on the turn if you will consider a 80 x BB bet on the river? why let them catch up with the flush and straight draws? if you re-raise, maybe you will find out if player #1 already has the boat; just some other thoughts.
/g2
If you're trying to maximize EV, yes.
Of course he might have that.
By your description of him, it sounds like he'd do that more than 60% of the time in this spot.
A played who sticks 80BB into a pot of 35BB typically has little concept of being pot-commited.
/g2
jimmy, i felt CRing the turn played right into the other players.
villain #2 would not call the flop on a rainbow, paired flop without something. he is loose but not an idiot. if he has just an Ace, he is not calling the CR and i'm only losing on the river if another ace comes and that would be an easy fold. if he has trips, i can be quite confident his kicker is better than mine and i doubt he folds. if he is trapping, he puts the hammer down on my CR. by just calling, i might be giving him a 5-10% chance to river me, if i am ahead of him now.
villain #1 is the wild card. if i'm way ahead, he is unlikely to call the CR he folds and i miss out on the chance to let him bluff again on the river. he could also bluff shove which would put me to a difficult decision. on the other hand, if he is way ahead, he probably pushes now and i'm not sure i can easily fold here. if he just calls, then i would suspect he is drawing but i guess he could be trapping. by just calling, i might be giving him a 20% chance to river me, if i am ahead on the turn.
i think a meaningful CR here pot-commits me, too. so i might get a bit of value out of the chasers but i'm not sure what other benefit i get from a CR here.
so why not make them pay to chase to the river?
And please don't reply saying, "Oh good, then I get the pot now". Win rate * pot size. I'd rather win 80% of 100BBs than 100% of 35BBs.
/g2
P.S. Please invite Unbelievable villain #1 to the upcoming home games.
I think you mean villian #1 don't you?
I bitch that this guys is the luckiest sob when he flips Qx for the full house or even funnier that it could be AA that didn't have a chance to reraise
but you cant really fold either... if this guys is down as much as you say then this bet is almost 100% a missed draw and trying to scare you off the pot
If you think that this could be a well designed tilt bet because he knows that you would think he has shit and you would call him with just TPMK then there is no way this guy is down 10k BB, he is thinking way more then most
it fits either way, a missed reraise with a power house and calling the whole way to try and build a pot then doing the super aggro donk move of betting 2x pot with da nutz
but man this guy is a bad player.... and these are the places that the will be more bad then good
push my chips in the middle, but say "man you outplayed me on this one" so even if you catch him he knows this move might work next time too
Based on the description of the lagtard. You must call.
Ideally I would still want to qualify some sort of range for LAGtard calling on the flop whether you can deduce he has trips as well, well would he be playing ace rag, K rag...
The next important piece here was the fact you did not open the betting again on the turn. Your option to check here forces you to call any action on the river because you are getting exactly what you wanted the LAGtard to do. Make a huge overbet. The other play is null and I don't worry about him for a second, he was coming along with best a pair....he was playing on the fact that LAGtard was in and he wanted to grab him.
The fact that LAGtard tells everyone to shut up leads me to believe he has a monster and doesn't want anyone wising up to the fact that he is not playing like a moron and they should just call his massive overbet. To further quantify this you would have to recall times where he made overbets and on what boards did he make these bets on. Once again there will be a pattern to these kind of bets (ie LAGtards I have played against, try to push people off of made hands when scare cards come, or board pairs on the river.....etc)
I know its against conventional wisdom but playing the levels here I think villian knows you have a monster (because of your image) and is looking to stack you. But because you did not checkraise the turn you can't know for certain. With this scenario especially you are either way ahead or way behind. There are no close calls here.
In this situation I close my eyes and make the call crying.....I personally would have tried to keep control of the pot to prevent huge decisions on the river.
These are some keys that I keep in mind when playing in these type of aggressive/gambling type of games:
1. Hand ranges/betting patterns
2. Metagame - what is villians perception of you...intelligence to lay down hands or are they going to call with anything just to crack you
3. Big hands, big pots, anything under a set I am controlling the size of the pot
4. Pot control. I want to make sure I am forcing villian to bet what I want him to bet or what I am comfortable calling.
Try those little tips out and it will help you with these situations in the future.
i'm curious how you suggest i control the pot here?
you wondered about previous patterns. i'm trying to think of examples but in reality, this guy only has one gear. in terms of my image, he knows he can get me to fold a 'good' hand. in this case here, he could be pretty sure i might fold something as strong as AQ.
I think a lead on the river will give you a better indication of strength. I know it sucks to slow the villian down but its better than having to make a decision on the river knowing very well Villian is overbetting the pot in an amount that you are uncomfortable to call right away with, even though your hand related to the board and the action is really strong, but may not be the nuts. I also think the villian at that point on the river will be confused and will just call because now he is unsure of your hand.
As for folding AQ...I think AQ is an easier fold then trips in this situation. I would have no problem mucking top 2 here with a paired board because my feeling with 3 people in is that I am in second place and I need the Ace on the river to chop or give me the winning hand in this case a fullhouse.
A lot of times the in this case the river card really is a brick and it doesn't change the hand values (unless the obviously flush card, straight card,etc comes with people check calling...)
I agree. From this I would put V1 on the AQ or a medium kicked Ace. Much easier hand to bet in this situation than to call with and if this guy is as tardy as you describe the Q on the river would look like the pot of gold to him.....unless he was bet strongly into.
I would think his attempt to shush the discussion would be in an attempt to give you the chance to call.
It's a tough call though and sounds like you thought about it really well which is good. I would insta-call that. But as I've said elsewhere I'm not very good yet. Just trying to get into the discussion to try and raise my own game a bit.
So, how long until you reveal the pay off? (and please don't let it be Fold and mucked Villain. If it was, make something up