Couting Straight and Flush Outs.
Your playing at a 9 handed table. Its just you and one opponent on the flop you hold 2 spades, the board has 2 spades aswell. Most people count their outs as 9 spade outs to make their flush hand. Since the table has 9 players the probibility of your oponent holding at least 1 spade and some of the other players having folded some spades is pretty good. So when playing at a fuller table should you compinsate when couting flush or str8 outs by saying only 7 or 8 more outs to the spade flush? thanks
Comments
Correct.
An unseen card is an unseen card, whether it's still in the deck or if it was in another opponent's hand.
Now if a guy goes " I folded 2 spades" well that's different:).
absolutely wrong; ,maybe all the other players folded spades (so there are none left) or none of the players had spades. How do you determine which scenerio is correct? based on known cards only.
If you have over cards, maybe you have more outs as well?
Since they havent come up for a while the odds are that they will appear more frequently.
Let's just look at the flush draw.
The "outs" system considers the chances the card you want is coming versus all the cards that you can't see. So after the flop you have seen 5 cards leaving 47 unseen. The odds of catching one of the 9 remaining spades on the turn is calculated in this system as 9/47 = 19%.
If you want to discount all the flush cards that are in other peoples hands you can't use the above system. If there are 9 players you can calculate the odds of each player having a flush card (about 3.5 flush cards gone).... BUT then you have to discount all those hands in play. You have to take 18 cards away from the 47. So you end up with 5.5/29 = 19%.
So you can see that it's the same odds. If you calculate those flush cards away from what is at the table you have to remove those hands from the calculation as well. It ends up being a wash. That's why the outs system is used... it's nice and simple and leads to some simple math after the flop (4x rule and 2x rule).
Now as for the 7 2 comment yes you can do that. Sometimes online I will track this and start playing cards that have been absent a long time. It seems to work. Given enough events things will trend back to thier averages... they have to. But over a finite period of events they won't neccessarily. I use this in BlackJack too. It's a near 50/50 game so if I go on a long winning streak I reduce my bets to the minimum. Conversly if I have been on a long losing streak I start upping my bets.
Wat
If I haven't seen a K come on the flop for the last 20 hands and I am sitting there with K 9 I might see a raise I might otherwise not have played.
yes and???????? what is sooooooooo wrong saying this more so when your on jokerstars, i miss playing against good players since their are none online anymore, would looooooooooove to play against people who know what the f!@# a fold button is.:)
BlondeFish muttering to self:
"Don't tap the aquarium.
Don't tap the aquarium.
Don't tap the aquarium.
Don't tap the aquarium...." :-X
p.s.
the wife let you go to vegas again:p