What to do with this flop
Cash game, villain is aggressive, but I haven't seen him bluff too much. He's been restealing successfully the last couple of orbits. I haven't been paying too much attention to him though.
0.25/0.50 Texas Hold'em (No Limit) - Friday, November 21, 2008 3:16:04 PM
Table TH 248 (Real/Cash Game)
Seat 2: OldRknight (50.50)
Seat 4: IOL0wntre (10.00)
Seat 5: GoingGray (95.54)
Seat 6: Almunia (20.32)
Seat 10: rawi84 (44.02)
Seat 1: Zhangsir (34.75)
Seat 3: luisito88 (42.95)
Seat 7: Mjltai (67.09)
Seat 8: experienc (50.00)
Seat 9: FAKTORA_ (50.36)
rawi84 post SB 0.25
Zhangsir post BB 0.50
** Deal **
OldRknight [N/A, N/A]
IOL0wntre [N/A, N/A]
GoingGray [As, Ad]
Almunia [N/A, N/A]
rawi84 [N/A, N/A]
Zhangsir [N/A, N/A]
luisito88 [N/A, N/A]
Mjltai [N/A, N/A]
experienc [N/A, N/A]
FAKTORA_ [N/A, N/A]
*** Bet Round 1 ***
OldRknight Fold
luisito88 Fold
IOL0wntre Fold
GoingGray Raise to 3.50
Almunia Fold
Mjltai Fold
experienc Call 3.50
FAKTORA_ Fold
rawi84 Fold
Zhangsir Fold
*** Flop(Board): *** : [Ac, Kh, Jc]
What's the next move?
0.25/0.50 Texas Hold'em (No Limit) - Friday, November 21, 2008 3:16:04 PM
Table TH 248 (Real/Cash Game)
Seat 2: OldRknight (50.50)
Seat 4: IOL0wntre (10.00)
Seat 5: GoingGray (95.54)
Seat 6: Almunia (20.32)
Seat 10: rawi84 (44.02)
Seat 1: Zhangsir (34.75)
Seat 3: luisito88 (42.95)
Seat 7: Mjltai (67.09)
Seat 8: experienc (50.00)
Seat 9: FAKTORA_ (50.36)
rawi84 post SB 0.25
Zhangsir post BB 0.50
** Deal **
OldRknight [N/A, N/A]
IOL0wntre [N/A, N/A]
GoingGray [As, Ad]
Almunia [N/A, N/A]
rawi84 [N/A, N/A]
Zhangsir [N/A, N/A]
luisito88 [N/A, N/A]
Mjltai [N/A, N/A]
experienc [N/A, N/A]
FAKTORA_ [N/A, N/A]
*** Bet Round 1 ***
OldRknight Fold
luisito88 Fold
IOL0wntre Fold
GoingGray Raise to 3.50
Almunia Fold
Mjltai Fold
experienc Call 3.50
FAKTORA_ Fold
rawi84 Fold
Zhangsir Fold
*** Flop(Board): *** : [Ac, Kh, Jc]
What's the next move?
Comments
I don't think a bet of $90 into a pot of $8 is really what you want....You have to be good here....hopefully villain flopped a pair and can get some money out of him. Bet the pot and hope he wants to give you his $50. If he flat calls then I might be scared of a q or 10 on the turn, but probably coulnd't fold anyway cause that could easily fill his 2 pair....
If you get called on the flop and see a blank turn I would likely go for a CRAI.
If you get a club on the turn I would check/call any reasonable bet.
If the board pairs I would value bet $10-$14.
Turn is 10c
Action is on me??
Seriously, though, you hurt yourself by not betting the flop, and now big trouble has come with the arrival of a straight/flush card on the turn. If you check, can you call a significant bet? How about a re-raise. You mention he's been re-stealing a fair amount. Would he do that in this spot as well? You may have just played yourself into one of those min-win/max-loss situations. I say check call, and pray the board pairs. How did it end?
I don't get why people raise then check when they hit monsters. On any board, but oop on draw heavy boards especially. You would bet AQ or TT or KQs in this spot (i hope), so bet your AA!
if it doesn't you can easily check/fold the river.
if it does pair I would either lead the flop small say 30% of the pot and hope our aggro player comes over the top so we can get it in or I might check/shove.
Or the turn gets checked behind also and you lose to 8x8c when a fourth club hits. Or the turn and river get checked and you look like a dope for checking trip aces 3 times. Or, (worst possible) he figures that his KJ must be good when you check three times and bets half the pot on the river and you make your "easy fold".
The Tc scares him too. Bet the turn.
It was a huge mistake to check the flop and now that turn card put us in a really marginal spot. I am looking to control the pot size and give him a chance to bet a worse hand. I also can't stand a raise on the turn so betting here serves no purpose.
What he said. By betting the turn you are turning your set into a bluff, but you can get worse hands to bet by checking. You now hope for the board to pair or something and value bet it, otherwise you're in either check call or check fold on the river.
Many worse hands we WANT to fold, or charge to draw because they have a club. Notably KcJx KcQx KcKx, any small pair with a club. Note that we are then betting for value, not as a bluff. If we were certain the opponent would bet, then c/call is fine; he can charge himself for his draw and let us make a very disguised boat on the end.
That much we agree upon.:)
ps.
"I haven't been paying too much attention to him though."
=
"I've been playing like a nit"
You do realize that we are behind KQ right?
The value here is just way too thin IMO. I don't think he checked behind on that flop with a set or 2 pair. It is possible but not likely. The board is WAAYYYY to wet. The most likely holdings were some type of a draw (and didn't they ALL just about get there?) or a small PP who was looking to flop a set against our obv. AA that made a 7BB pre-flop raise.
So to re-cap: If he checked behind a draw he very likely got there. If he has a small PP he folds to a turn bet always. His set and two pair hands are discounted by the way he played the flop and these are the only hands that have a possibility of paying you off.
Sorry, I had it in my head it was Qc on the turn.
Yes, he folds a small PP on the turn if we bet. He also checks it behind our turn check too (most likely). This opponent has shown NO indication he has a draw, or a pair, or anything. He could have 6h7h for all we know. A hand that, btw, has 4 outs to split with us; not to mention position and a chance to bluff us off our hand.
At this point I don't think we ought to be worried about "getting paid off". If our goal was to play a big pot, we should have bet the flop. As it is, we have almost no chance of winning a big pot, but can easily lose this one by checking again.