AQ vs tight shortish stack

HobbesHobbes
in MTT Strategy
Guy has been playing very tight (VPIP 13%), so at this point I am 95% sure that I am against a PP or AT+. There are maybe 45 players left. We are ITM if it matters.

Is it time to flip?


FullTiltPoker Game #9065988447: $10 + $1 Tournament (69231334), Table 17 - 250/500 Ante 50 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:04:49 ET - 2008/11/19
Seat 1: BigBill76 (3,930)
Seat 2: Hobbes614 (27,552)
Seat 3: mafdawg19 (53,046)
Seat 4: sun_tzu3142 (7,530)
Seat 5: sharky7878 (21,605)
Seat 6: ngk100 (52,376)
Seat 7: auto-digit (5,948)
Seat 8: bigchp (22,578)
Seat 9: perp_187 (12,565)
BigBill76 antes 50
Hobbes614 antes 50
mafdawg19 antes 50
sun_tzu3142 antes 50
sharky7878 antes 50
ngk100 antes 50
auto-digit antes 50
bigchp antes 50
perp_187 antes 50
BigBill76 posts the small blind of 250
Hobbes614 posts the big blind of 500
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hobbes614 [Qc Ad]
mafdawg19 folds
sun_tzu3142 raises to 7,480, and is all in

Comments

  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    oh ya, you've already got 550 in there

    p.s. it would be kind of dumb for him to make this move with AA or KK. so you really only have to worry about AK. even if he has that, the board will likely come with 2pr so you chop anyway.
  • Wetts1012Wetts1012
    The payout structures are so flat in these things that its about time to start taking flips. There isnt going to be alot of postflop play after the next 2-3 blind levels anyway.
  • screenmanscreenman
    AQ gets beat alot only because it is a playable hand. You got 10 shots to beat the PP against 2 shots to improve PP. Though AK has you beat off the mark its 3 against 3 to the finish. Assuming there are no more call/raise before me, I'm calling.
  • pkrfce9pkrfce9
    after getting over my initial shock at seeing an actual strategy post, i thought about this some more.

    if he is 13% vpip, i would guess he is likely much closer to 5-8% from early position. that suggests something like 88+, AJ+.

    this looks like an overbet to me. something that doesn't want to play post-flop. so i would remove the AA and KK as mentioned above. not sure if the range can be narrowed further but in the back of my mind i'm thinking he is more likely to have AJ+ than a pair and the push lets him see all 5 cards without having to make any tough decisions after the flop.

    so you are a 75% fav over AJ, chopping with AQ, 25% dog to AK, 30% dog to QQ and a slight dog to 88-JJ. that would put you as a slight dog to his range. factor in the dead money and it is probably a wash.

    other factors:
    * if you lose chips to a tight player, you will be hard-pressed to get them back. however, he is bb when you are button, so you could steal them back over the next few orbits. i'm not sure whether this is a plus or a minus for calling here.
    * wetts makes a good point. you have to get lucky at some point to accumulate chips. at least in this case it looks like you are about 50/50. this would be a plus for calling.
  • actyperactyper
    Was this a rebuy tourney? Everybody is so deepstacked itm.
  • DennisGDennisG
    ITM with 45 left appears to be the Midnight Madness? Regardless...obviously I am no expert..but my thoughts are if he is that tight, and has made it this far, he is likely sitting on 1010-kk.. He is looking for a double up..maybe the over bet is aces? It is my thought that we don't need to spend 25% of our chips to find out. There will be more situations that we can push instead of calling...a couple of nice stacks to our left we can reraise to steal..

    ok, that is my new "tight" voice..

    The other piece of me says..if you won't play AQ here..you may be waiting a long time for another hand..payout is flat..go big, or go home.
  • Wetts1012Wetts1012
    Ihaveyourname wrote: »
    go big, or go home.

    This.

    Solid postflop play gets you to this point in tournaments.

    Then you have to win flips - which is almost always the case in this spot.

    The difference between 54th place and 15th place was $14.
  • HobbesHobbes
    actyper wrote: »
    Was this a rebuy tourney? Everybody is so deepstacked itm.

    Not a rebuy, double stacked though
  • schabsschabs
    fold, hobbes fold! you have 550 invested, you need to call almost 7,000, AQ isnt a huge monster. not to mention the notes you have on him.
  • KristyKristy
    ship
  • ReefAquariumReefAquarium
    Cranking some numbers through pokerstove... If you're against a top 13% then you're 54.078 to 45.922 favorite to win. Against AT+ any pair, you're a 55.017% to 44.893%.. So yeah,,, ship it. If you put him on AJ+, 88+ then you're 42% to win ... You're only ahead if he has exactly AJ.
  • KristyKristy
    end result is the same...but it is better than that reef...we don't think villian has aa,kk there very often.
  • HobbesHobbes
    Thanks guys. Like I said in my OP, I knew (as well as I could) that I was most likely flipping and it was time to flip.

    Nice to have to make that choice once in a while ;)
  • herschelwherschelw
    If we honestly think he's really tight and would only shove big hands here I think folding is the best move. If we run AQ vs 88+ AJ+ through pokerstove we're behind 57/43. If it's AT+ 88+ then we're behind 53/47. I generally lean toward taking most edges we can find but we can definitly find a better spot than this. Additionally, since our stack size is large enough that we're not pressed to accumulate chips at every opportunity this makes me leane even more toward folding.
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