Would you call the river?
No read on the villian. Only played 5 hands. Not even found on OPR.
PokerStars Game #21553409591: Tournament #116555240, $2.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (200/400) - 2008/10/27 22:33:48 ET
Table '116555240 148' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Ampitup (14863 in chips)
Seat 2: Sushi160 (13315 in chips)
Seat 3: Hobbes614 (20165 in chips)
Seat 4: Emily524 (60830 in chips)
Seat 5: rickindestin (21350 in chips)
Seat 6: cardsharks1 (9430 in chips)
Seat 7: KC0BMF (12045 in chips)
Seat 8: Robfaria (14973 in chips)
Seat 9: BANDITx64 (19480 in chips)
Ampitup: posts the ante 50
Sushi160: posts the ante 50
Hobbes614: posts the ante 50
Emily524: posts the ante 50
rickindestin: posts the ante 50
cardsharks1: posts the ante 50
KC0BMF: posts the ante 50
Robfaria: posts the ante 50
BANDITx64: posts the ante 50
Hobbes614: posts small blind 200
Emily524: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hobbes614 :9h :jc
rickindestin: folds
cardsharks1: folds
KC0BMF: calls 400
Robfaria: folds
BANDITx64: folds
Ampitup: folds
Sushi160: folds
Hobbes614: calls 200
Emily524: checks
(Pot 1650)
*** FLOP *** :jh :9d :5h
Hobbes614: bets 1600
Emily524: calls 1600
Pot (4850)
KC0BMF: folds
*** TURN *** :jh :9d :5h :as
Hobbes614: bets 2800
Emily524: calls 2800
(pot 10450)
*** RIVER *** :jh :9d :5h :as :7s
Hobbes614: bets 4000
Emily524: raises 12400 to 16400
Hobbes?
PokerStars Game #21553409591: Tournament #116555240, $2.00+$0.20 Hold'em No Limit - Level IX (200/400) - 2008/10/27 22:33:48 ET
Table '116555240 148' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Ampitup (14863 in chips)
Seat 2: Sushi160 (13315 in chips)
Seat 3: Hobbes614 (20165 in chips)
Seat 4: Emily524 (60830 in chips)
Seat 5: rickindestin (21350 in chips)
Seat 6: cardsharks1 (9430 in chips)
Seat 7: KC0BMF (12045 in chips)
Seat 8: Robfaria (14973 in chips)
Seat 9: BANDITx64 (19480 in chips)
Ampitup: posts the ante 50
Sushi160: posts the ante 50
Hobbes614: posts the ante 50
Emily524: posts the ante 50
rickindestin: posts the ante 50
cardsharks1: posts the ante 50
KC0BMF: posts the ante 50
Robfaria: posts the ante 50
BANDITx64: posts the ante 50
Hobbes614: posts small blind 200
Emily524: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hobbes614 :9h :jc
rickindestin: folds
cardsharks1: folds
KC0BMF: calls 400
Robfaria: folds
BANDITx64: folds
Ampitup: folds
Sushi160: folds
Hobbes614: calls 200
Emily524: checks
(Pot 1650)
*** FLOP *** :jh :9d :5h
Hobbes614: bets 1600
Emily524: calls 1600
Pot (4850)
KC0BMF: folds
*** TURN *** :jh :9d :5h :as
Hobbes614: bets 2800
Emily524: calls 2800
(pot 10450)
*** RIVER *** :jh :9d :5h :as :7s
Hobbes614: bets 4000
Emily524: raises 12400 to 16400
Hobbes?
Comments
4k into 10k pot screams weakness on your part
it looks like the ace scared you on the turn
then the draw doesn't get there so it is a simple play for emily to represent the Ace
It is a $2 tourney so anything is possible, but i think call
Emily was afraid of the heart draw and probably had an A.
She saw weakness and figures her pair of aces is the best. So, she bets.
I would call. Don't push back though. I could see her having pocket 7's at these stakes.
However, I don't hate the turn bet. When she called, you know she either has an A or is setting up a bluff.
EDIT: took out part about reads - missed the part where you said you had no reads
The problem with this situation started pre-flop in my opinion. You have no idea what her range of hands is.
This is why I like small-ball. You should have put in a bet pre-flop if you were going to play that hand, especially when no-one else has raised. If the other two called, you would have been able to put them in a range.
Right now you have the big blind. That player has anything. You can't put them on any specific range. They could have A7, 77, 75, 72os. They pretty much have anything but a high pocket pair, unless they decided to slow play.
Either way, in this situation I say call and see what they have. You'll get a read from your opponent for future reference and you'll still have a small stack left if you lose.
Oh my, I missed the straight possibility.
8h6h for sure!!!!
She would have had correct odds to call probably too. This hand makes a lot of sense.
EDIT: or Th8h
Ok then, what about T8os? She would have had an open ended straight draw.
Even if they were both hearts, I could see her calling to the river to avoid larger losses.
Then, when she hit on the river, she put in an amount she felt he could call. If she put in more, maybe he wouldn't call. Maybe she was putting in a decent raise and hoped he pushed back.
I could see Th8h here for sure.
My question to you is, where would she have been more aggressive?
With T8hh here I go broke on the flop.
Of course he does, esp against AA
But then I did over play them against a runner runner draw
You would push on the flop? I guess that is +EV, since you are about EDIT: 53% chance of hitting by the river.
But, is it the most +EV option? I like calling an all-in push from another player with this, but I don't like pushing. I would rather call raises and wait to hit and then try to get even more out of the opponent.
Either way, did you call? Did you get to see what the other player had?
You'd prefer to NOT push money in when you're more likely to win and more likely to get called, hoping that you'll get the card that tells your opponent he's beat?
Mark
After I saw it I thought that I should have be more on the flop/turn but after seeing her play after that, I realized that she's prob calling me all the way down anyways and it all ends the same.
I was a bit tilting by that point after having hand-after-hand run over (QQ < 9To apparently).
Oh well.
Now if you were multi-accounting you could have moved on to your other table...
Let see, by pushing you can potentially force opponents out with hands that is currently winning, but by only calling you NEED to hit. By calling and wait until you hit, what makes you think you'll get paid off?
I still think I like pushing more...
I'll change my % chance again and say 54%
Either way, you're right, I would rather NOT push in a tournament at this point. If I push, does he call?
Lets look at both situations.
Situation one, you push.
He calls - you win 54% of the time - probably less though, cause he could hit his full house and you still hit your straight. I give it a 50-50 win with discounted outs.
So, 50% of the time that he calls, you are busted and now are small stacked. 50% of the time that he calls, you are left with less chances of winning the tournmanet.
There is also still a chance he folds on the flop, which gives you minimal money, and you don't want that. Chances are he is going to think you have a set or something. Why risk a fold here? You have 50% chance of winning this hand. Why not wait to see if you hit and minimize loss?
Situation two - you call.
You get to make your hand and not hope your coin-flop is on your side. You give yourself a chance to continue in the tournament if you don't hit.
You can also fold if you sense a full-house or something if the board pairs. You have minimized your losses and in almost any situation, you are going to continue in the tournament.
50% of the time you are going to end up with a lot more chips than you started, and some of that 50% of the time you can probably double up. At this level, players will go all-in with two pair easily. I could see a push back easily here.
I guess it all depends on stack sizes, where in the tournament you are and how good your post-flop game is.
I still like calling with a T8 suited drawing hand.
The other player played this incorrectly if it was os though. You didn't win, but are the better player in my opinion. Calling all of that with 4 outs? Crazy!
EDIT AGAIN!!!
The guy had 8 outs. I must be mad right now. I have to rest, get rid of my cold, then come back and re-think this hand.
In a tournament, I like to be the overwhelming favourite. I guess I try to minimize loss more.
I like using pot odds to decide if I should call. In this situation, given the same hand, you would be able to call with pot odds.
By forcing opponents out of the hand, I feel you are going to end up not getting called all that often. You will simply make the money he originally bet and 50% of the time you won't hit your hand if he calls. If he does call, you can assume he has a good drawing hand or has a great hand already and could beat you even if you do hit.
Is there any way to figure out which would give you the best expected value?
I still like calling to see if I hit. Then I try to extract the most out of the other player.
Glad to see you still can laugh.
I agree bet sizes are meaningless at that level. Like I said villain would have called anything on the chase. Just a shitty night where I constantly got chased down.
Oh well. Guess I need to stop being such a bankroll nit and move up a bit.
couple of things here...
if you just call, you gotta call the turn too, in order to get your full 53% chance to win. factor that into your calculations. (you don't know how big the bet will be)
if you push, you have 2 ways to win. never negate the value of fold equity when you are drawing against a made but weak hand.
pot odds are not the greatest thing since sliced bread in a tourney.
sure, 2pr pretty much calls every time here but that is one of the best hands you can expect to be against when you have T8s. lots of times you may be up against TPWK, overpair, mid pair, some other draw etc. these hands are hard pressed to call here.
I realize you have to call the turn too to get the full 54%. Otherwise it's about 30% on the turn.
I also do realize that pot odds don't always apply in a tournament. I often go against pot odds in hopes of knocking some people out. But, that's only if I am the huge stack at the table. This I usually do later in the tournament when people are playing a bit tigheter as well.
Also, I sometimes fold some hands when I can call if I am short stacked and wait for a better opportunity. However, if I was short stacked, this would be a good opportunity in my mind.
Either way, it really doesn't matter what hand you are up against. If they have bottom pair with bottom kicker and call you, you could lose here.
I just don't see a point in pushing this hand when, if you lose, you will give away 1/3 of your stack this early in the tournament and you will be pretty much tied for the big stack. Or, you can lose a little by using pot odds, if you lose. You only have to call two bets. If you win, you have the chance to double up against someone with two pairs, or you can gain about 1500 more, like in this situation, and make someone a short stack and continue with the large stack. Still, in option two you are left standing as the large stack, no matter what happens.
In my opinion, you are in much better position to win the tournament in every case for option two.
If it was this early in the tournament, I will use pot odds and minimize my losses. Especially because people are usually a lot more loose at the beginning of a tournament and an all-in call is likely to happen. I'm assuming the reason why this guy was the chip leader is because he's one of those donks that gets lucky at the beginning by calling some all-in's and beating hands like an AKsooted flopped flush draw with pocket 4's.
So, I agree that sometimes pot odds aren't the best thing since sliced bread in a tourney, as you put it, but at the beginning they should for sure be used more to avoid massive chip losses.
I have also been winning a lot more when using pot odds and a bit less donkgression. Like I'm talking placing in the money about 4 out of every 10 tournaments to 7 or 8 out of every 10 tournaments now, and my frequency of being first has increased as well. When I place in the money, I am usually first.
Either way, the main difference in my strategy is the fact that I actually sit at the table with a calculator and use pot odds when calling hands like this.
Not putting the money in while ahead is a leak.
Calling and Folding is spew.
with what data can you confirm this claim? and why are you wasting your time here if you are that good?
RIP threads that only require us to evaluate one decision. You should ask for all insight or admit that you're not actually looking to learn and BBV that shit.
That whole hand is fucked Hobbes.
Are you saying you are ahead with J high?
I didn't claim to be that good. At the $11 dollar tables I went from pretty much breaking even to being ahead about $180 every 10 tournaments (this is based on my last 30 or so, or last 3 weeks, as I average about 10 tournaments a week). This isn't enough to say that I am all that good or that based on my results, I must be right, but math doesn't lie.
So, I'm not making that much and I am learning. That's why I'm here.
Like I said, though, math doesn't lie. Do the math for 100 hands for this situation, but give the person Ts8s instead of offsuited. You'll see that calling actually gives you more money in the end. This is assuming 50% of the time you get called on an all-in push. At the $2 stakes, 50% isn't too far off the mark.
In the end you will end up with the following gains (either way you will end up ahead with this hand)...
635000(using pot odds)
181250(pushing, assuming 50% fold)
a difference of
453750 (therefore calling and using pot odds give you more in the end, assuming 50% fold)
I know there are other things to factor, such as the amount of people in the hand, positioning, and all of that, but that is a large difference, especially when we're talking about tournament life. The original raiser acted before the guy in question, so we have seen strength in a hand, therefore we can assume the fold % is less than if everyone checked.
Either way, yeah, we got off topic here and aren't even talking about the actual hand in question. This will be my last post in this thread. If you would like, post to show me how I am wrong and I will listen. I have yet to see any proof of my ideas being wrong in this situation, though. Just people saying, "you're wrong, you have to push".
If the fold % was higher, like maybe at your tournament level you are playing, then maybe your fold equity will make up for the difference in the long run. In this situation, I could see the fold percent being smaller than 50%, especially with a oop raise.
Please elaborate Kristy (and I am not being sarcastic) or PM me if you want.
xoxox
Please elaborate Kristy (and I am not being sarcastic) or PM me if you want.
xoxox