5/5 nl: hand reading exercise
the recent topic on hand reading reminded me of a hand that happened in a club a few weeks back...
fairly loose and aggressive 5/5 max 500 game. ABC player opens in EP for 20 with < 200 behind. called by LAG in MP with 600+ behind, TAG in LMP with 600+ behind and TAG in LP (or was it SB?) with 700+ behind. pot is approx 80.
flop comes 366 with 2 (let's say) clubs. ABC leads for 50. quickly called by MP and LMP. button thinks for a short while then raises to 175. ABC folds. MP quickly shoves. LMP thinks for a bit and re-shoves. button looks like he might puke. thinks for a while, chuckles and says "either you two are donkeys and i'm the worst player in the world; or you're holding XX (points to MP) and you're holding YY (points to LMP)." then he mucks his hand while shaking his head at his misfortune. (note that button is familiar with/respects LMP's game and vice-versa. at least up to this point... unbeknownst to button, LMP is semi-familiar with MP's game and doesn't respect it much. button is unfamiliar with MP.)
thoughts on what each of the 4 players likely held? then we can discuss the merits of each player's actions.
fairly loose and aggressive 5/5 max 500 game. ABC player opens in EP for 20 with < 200 behind. called by LAG in MP with 600+ behind, TAG in LMP with 600+ behind and TAG in LP (or was it SB?) with 700+ behind. pot is approx 80.
flop comes 366 with 2 (let's say) clubs. ABC leads for 50. quickly called by MP and LMP. button thinks for a short while then raises to 175. ABC folds. MP quickly shoves. LMP thinks for a bit and re-shoves. button looks like he might puke. thinks for a while, chuckles and says "either you two are donkeys and i'm the worst player in the world; or you're holding XX (points to MP) and you're holding YY (points to LMP)." then he mucks his hand while shaking his head at his misfortune. (note that button is familiar with/respects LMP's game and vice-versa. at least up to this point... unbeknownst to button, LMP is semi-familiar with MP's game and doesn't respect it much. button is unfamiliar with MP.)
thoughts on what each of the 4 players likely held? then we can discuss the merits of each player's actions.
Comments
ABC is relatively simple: EP Raise, Cbet, Fold on that flop = AQ/AK.
Button looks alot like JJ/QQ. If hes a true tag hes raising PF KK/AA so the throw-up-on-the-table look smells alot like a poorly played QQ.
MP Lag flats PF, Flats the CBet, and shoves the raise. I put him on mid-broadway clubs. I also lean this way because of the information included regarding the LMP knowing and not respecting his game. There was a reason you included this.
Edit: Thought about this while driving home and realized Im not right here. Just because the guys a LAG doesnt mean hes retarded. He has to hold more than a bare draw here.
LMP Tag has the nut nut. Tags dont typically shove marginal hands (88-TT, etc). He also is well known by Button who obv. folded a monster.
i'm curious what kind of hand you think would smooth call a bet OOP on a drawy board then push against a raise from behind? the first hand then the second one?
They are obv. hands that want action.
Its possible MP has the nizzles - or close to it. Why shove 33/66. A bare 6? I just dont see a draw here. Given the read that LMP is not giving him much credit he may be calling down relatively light here - however I dont see a weak draw here either.
LMP is not playing 77-JJ this way which would be light call downs. Not with a TAG raising button still to act behind. I guess 4c5c is an option.
I think the a/q-a/k and jj/qq are right.
(btw...xx and yy should mean 33 and 66, no?)
ABC open-raiser: 99-JJ, maybe QQ depending on how solid or whatever he is.
I think he's leading there to see where he's at in the hand. I hesitate to call this a "favourable" flop, but it would be 3 handed. When he gets two callers and a raise behind him, he's clearly done with the hand. If MP doesn't raise, or even folds maybe, he's probably not committing the rest of his stack on the turn anyways. I really don't think AK/AQ is in his range here, sine I don't think he's cbetting into 3 other players.
MP LAG likely has a big draw more than a 6 in this spot. Flatting with a bare 6 there is kind of out of character there for a LAG and might kill action behind him(?) I think the LAG thinks he has some semblance (gee i wonder if i'm using this word right) of fold equity against the button.
I want to say LAG has 45cc or 57cc.
LMP probably has 33 or A6s. I'm leaning towards A6s just because I think 33 would raise to protect a (somewhat) vulnerable hand 3 or 4 handed on the turn. I think he's reshoving just because MP is a LAG.
Button has some random 6, or maybe A6s again. I don't know. I was doing so decent at explaining my reasoning but I don't want to anymore
actually you were amazingly close. so were the others. sorry if i misled people about the XX and YY. i didn't mean pairs, i was just too lazy to use extra letters.
i don't remember what ABC had. but agree it was either a decent ace or a medium pocket pair.
MP LAG had 33. the 'LAG' part is a bit misleading in this instance.
LMP had A6s.
button had suited connectors and one was a 6.
button called out the MP's hand as 33 and LMP's as 63s. so he missed by a little but still realized he had 3rd best hand here.
discussion points:
* does ABC's continuation bet make sense? given the board, i think so but i'm open for new thoughts on this. if he had an overpair, he is charging the possible draws to beat him. if he had overcards, it would be hard for anyone to call here unless they hit the board pretty hard. but he is betting into 3 aggressive players and he is OOP.
* does MP's call then push make sense? maybe, if he thinks he is trapping ABC and doesn't expect to see much action from the tight players behind him. or maybe he's hoping one of them is drawing to a straight or flush and will hit? then he pushes when he realizes his hand is vulnerable to any 6 or he just figures he's getting called anyway so ship it now? i think his push cost him some money he would have gotten from the button.
* does LMP's call then push make sense? this one i have a harder time with. with the call, perhaps he thinks he is ahead of ABC and MP is a donk so he can trap them either or both with a big hand here. however, there are draws possible and he is giving the TAG behind him terrific odds to chase when he smooth calls. if the MP is chasing, LMP may have a hard time knowing what to do against a huge % of the deck on the turn. a lot of cards could also kill his action anyway. the push makes a bit more sense but i'm wondering what he puts the button on? the button raise shows a lot of strength here and when the MP pushes after, should he be confident A6 is ahead? he is in an difficult position with a good but not great hand. we now know he doesn't respect the MP's game so i suppose his push is to isolate him but still, if he thinks his hand is best, why push here? so he doesn't have to compete against 2 draws? (well, i suppose his push is more accurately a call since his stack and MP's stack are pretty close)
* does button's raise then fold make sense? maybe yes maybe no. he correctly surmized he was ahead of ABC. with MP and LMP just smooth calling the continuation bet, would it be reasonable for him to put them on some kind of draw or overpair? (a weaker 6 was possible but very unlikely.) his holding is very vulnerable against multiple players so i think a raise was ok, although if he got smoothcalled by 1 or 2 opponents here, what is his move on the turn? if only the LAG jammed, is this a call? would it be a call if only the TAG jammed?
so many questions...
MP obviously hates money. The push makes absolutely no sense. The only explanation is scared money.
ABC - AQ
MP - Kc10c
LMP- 33
Button- KK
The only play I really hate here is the AQ leading out on this board with three other callers. I can see merit in all others play with these holdings.
stp
these make sense except for the button having KK. would a TAG smooth-call against 3 opponents in a raised pot with that? i suppose he has position on his side. if he wants to raise, there is a very good chance he can get heads up with ABC, which i think would be very attractive.
btn flatting KK pf sort of make sense, but I'd expect he'd rather get heads up on the flop. Or maybe not, I don't know.
Flop makes very little sense aside from the raise, though with KK I think he'd raise larger to protect (this looks more like a value raise, though I don't know I already said I can't play this game) and probably end up getting committed. I think he snapmucks KK after a shove and a reshove after his original raise rather than agonize over it
hand reading is a lot easier to be right at when you're wishy washy like i am