I think I made the right fold, what do you think?
I only have 40 hands on Villian, but he has been a total nit playing 4/4/2. My table image (I think) is TAG.
Full Tilt Poker Game #8436631705: Table Cedar Breaks - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:02:28 ET - 2008/10/10
Seat 1: CAROLINA07770 ($2)
Seat 2: cartagonova ($1.95)
Seat 3: interprete ($7.60)
Seat 4: roosterdraw50 ($10.20)
Seat 5: Smurrf ($1.35), is sitting out
Seat 6: Spaffmonkey ($1.85)
Seat 7: iggs6 ($10)
Seat 8: marcogd89 ($14.80)
Seat 9: rlawod ($10.70)
interprete posts the small blind of $0.05
roosterdraw50 posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to marcogd89 [Qc Qh]
Spaffmonkey folds
Smurrf has returned
marcogd89 raises to $0.30
rlawod raises to $1.30
CAROLINA07770 folds
cartagonova folds
interprete folds
roosterdraw50 calls $1.20
marcogd89 has 15 seconds left to act
marcogd89 calls $1
*** FLOP *** [Kc 3c Kh]
roosterdraw50 has 15 seconds left to act
roosterdraw50 checks
marcogd89 bets $2
rlawod calls $2
roosterdraw50 folds
*** TURN *** [Kc 3c Kh] [Jd]
marcogd89 checks
rlawod bets $5.80
marcogd89 has 15 seconds left to act
marcogd89 is sitting out
marcogd89 has timed out
marcogd89 folds
Uncalled bet of $5.80 returned to rlawod
rlawod mucks
rlawod wins the pot ($7.20)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $7.95 | Rake $0.75
Board: [Kc 3c Kh Jd]
Seat 1: CAROLINA07770 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: cartagonova (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: interprete (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: roosterdraw50 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 5: Smurrf is sitting out
Seat 6: Spaffmonkey didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: iggs6 is sitting out
Seat 8: marcogd89 folded on the Turn
Seat 9: rlawod collected ($7.20), mucked
Full Tilt Poker Game #8436631705: Table Cedar Breaks - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:02:28 ET - 2008/10/10
Seat 1: CAROLINA07770 ($2)
Seat 2: cartagonova ($1.95)
Seat 3: interprete ($7.60)
Seat 4: roosterdraw50 ($10.20)
Seat 5: Smurrf ($1.35), is sitting out
Seat 6: Spaffmonkey ($1.85)
Seat 7: iggs6 ($10)
Seat 8: marcogd89 ($14.80)
Seat 9: rlawod ($10.70)
interprete posts the small blind of $0.05
roosterdraw50 posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to marcogd89 [Qc Qh]
Spaffmonkey folds
Smurrf has returned
marcogd89 raises to $0.30
rlawod raises to $1.30
CAROLINA07770 folds
cartagonova folds
interprete folds
roosterdraw50 calls $1.20
marcogd89 has 15 seconds left to act
marcogd89 calls $1
*** FLOP *** [Kc 3c Kh]
roosterdraw50 has 15 seconds left to act
roosterdraw50 checks
marcogd89 bets $2
rlawod calls $2
roosterdraw50 folds
*** TURN *** [Kc 3c Kh] [Jd]
marcogd89 checks
rlawod bets $5.80
marcogd89 has 15 seconds left to act
marcogd89 is sitting out
marcogd89 has timed out
marcogd89 folds
Uncalled bet of $5.80 returned to rlawod
rlawod mucks
rlawod wins the pot ($7.20)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $7.95 | Rake $0.75
Board: [Kc 3c Kh Jd]
Seat 1: CAROLINA07770 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: cartagonova (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: interprete (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: roosterdraw50 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 5: Smurrf is sitting out
Seat 6: Spaffmonkey didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: iggs6 is sitting out
Seat 8: marcogd89 folded on the Turn
Seat 9: rlawod collected ($7.20), mucked
Comments
Most likely fold here though all the same. He came out firing big, and flat calling the flop, so yes, he might be riding AK and you're dead. Playing against aggressive nits can be difficult to get a read on and he most likely hit his K9s hard.
edit: if you check you get to see how the third reacts to a likely c-bet and you also get some sense of the orig. raisers strength based on their timing and bet sizing.
a range of 99+,AQs+,AKo represents 4.2% of hands.
QQ is almost a 6-4 fav PF against this range and a bit less on the flop. on the turn it becomes a slight dog.
When I was reading it, I was putting him on TT+, AT+, KJs+. To be honest, I was thinking JJ for sure with a raise that big. I'm thinking AK or pocket pair JJ+. If he's a donk, then TT+ (as stated above)
Out of this range, what hands beat you?
Anything with a K
JJ - KK and AA
He could be suited for a draw too, but also hit his J.
I could see him with AcJc.
I like this fold. It's one to think about for sure though. Too bad you didn't have a better read on him.
i need to understand what kind of 'read' we need to have on someone who is playing 4/4/2. assuming those numbers are correct, i stated the range above and your ev against that range. put a bow on that and put it under the tree.
I'm actually not sure what 4/4/2 is referencing. Could you explain?
Also, reads can change the range of hands the player could be holding. For example, if you've seen him raise the same amount with pocket 5's. You can now put him on more hands, making a call more possible.
Or, if you know he is super tight and passive, you would know he probably has the nuts, which makes the fold easier.
His turn check showed weakness. Maybe he's the type of player that likes to steam roll people who show weakness and was waiting for it. If he saw this happen previously, that could change the decision.
Either way, I don't know what 4/4/2 is. Is that the ICM or something? I should go research this for furture reference.
in other words, the guy is incredibly tight and generally plays his monsters aggressively. not very likely he has moved far from his comfort zone with this hand. the range i quoted above is accurate for this type of player. the ev calculation stems from that.
i think it would be helpful to know the OP's numbers as well. assuming the opponent is tracking this, it may have some impact on the type of hand he is playing here, although i'm pretty confident he has an extremely narrow range...
In that case, I see your point.
My PT says I'm 16/10/3