Understanding Percentages
I have a friend who is an excellent crib and backgammon player but watches poker but has never played. We were talking about playing yesterday and he said he would play AA against any number of opponents all in preflop. I said to him you want 1 or 2 against you not 6. Your 80% against one approximately 72% against 2 and greatly diminish after that. He told me I was flat out wrong. I bet him $5 a hand and would deal out cards to prove my point.
I dealt him to black AA's then dealt out 6 random hands out of the cards left. We played 10 hands of which he won 4. Some of the flips that came out were incredibly funny. 2 spades on the flop with running spades to give the 10 of spades the high flush. One 2 on the flop with a 2 on the river to give the j 2 off the winning hand.
I just ran the numbers through poker stove as I wasn't sure what the exact percentages were but here we go:
AA vs 6 random hands 43.5%
AA vs 5 random hands 49.2%
AA vs 4 random hands 55.9%
AA vs 3 random hands 63.8%
AA vs 2 random hands 73.4%
AA vs 1 random hand 85.2%
The importance of raising with Big hands to limit the field becomes obvious when you look at the above chart. I remember reading somewhere the Doyle used to sit at a table and deal out hands face up to get an idea of what cards his opponents could have and then doing flops to see how all hands improved.
Just thought I would share this.
NOTE: This percentages change if your in a hand with Dr.Tyore and he has 7 8 as he will almost always crack your AA. LOL
I dealt him to black AA's then dealt out 6 random hands out of the cards left. We played 10 hands of which he won 4. Some of the flips that came out were incredibly funny. 2 spades on the flop with running spades to give the 10 of spades the high flush. One 2 on the flop with a 2 on the river to give the j 2 off the winning hand.
I just ran the numbers through poker stove as I wasn't sure what the exact percentages were but here we go:
AA vs 6 random hands 43.5%
AA vs 5 random hands 49.2%
AA vs 4 random hands 55.9%
AA vs 3 random hands 63.8%
AA vs 2 random hands 73.4%
AA vs 1 random hand 85.2%
The importance of raising with Big hands to limit the field becomes obvious when you look at the above chart. I remember reading somewhere the Doyle used to sit at a table and deal out hands face up to get an idea of what cards his opponents could have and then doing flops to see how all hands improved.
Just thought I would share this.
NOTE: This percentages change if your in a hand with Dr.Tyore and he has 7 8 as he will almost always crack your AA. LOL
Comments
where's jimmy?
AA vs 6 random hands. Everyone is all in for $100. pot = $700
10 hands so AA guy pays $100 X 10 = $1000
4 of 10 hands he wins pot 4 X $700 = $2800
wins - losses is $2800 - $1000 = $1800
We have $1800/10 = $180
So this play makes us $180 every time we do it.
What seems to be the problem here?
Huh?????????????????????????????
MTT may be a different issue than a cash game based on the structure. If the blinds are moving fast and the chips aren't deep, I'll gamble early to hit the small blind. Now if your dealing with long levels and deep chips then obviously waiting for some kind of hand is certainly better than bleeding every small blind.
The problem with that is the cost of playing the hand is more than just completing the small blind... if you want to see all 5 cards. The 13% chance of winning is greatly reduced if the goal is to out flop the AA. If you keep paying all the way down, the cost of the times you don't get there far outweigh the times you do. and all of this out of position so even if your hand gets there your AA opponent might fold to a river bet.