Is my math right?
Im just curious to see if my poker math is correct.
Example: i have Jd 10c the flop comes Qh 9c 2d, the pot has 300$, 3 players in the hand including me (on the button) the first position player bets 100$ the other player folds. Im getting 3 to 1 on a call, since i have 8 outs to the str8 about a 32% chance to make it, the call is correct. If this is correct so far.... ive read about the BEP (break even percentage) which turns a 3 to 1 call to a 1/4 or 25% chance needed to break even on the call. Im pretty sure this is correct but i want to be sure.
Preflop...
If your getting 2-1 from the BB is a call almost always correct? My analogy of this is because, usually at worse you'll be facing 2 over cards in which case you have about a 35% chance to win and 2-1 odds translates to 3 to 1 to break even or 33%. Thanks to anyone who can prove my basic poker math correct or incorrect.
Example: i have Jd 10c the flop comes Qh 9c 2d, the pot has 300$, 3 players in the hand including me (on the button) the first position player bets 100$ the other player folds. Im getting 3 to 1 on a call, since i have 8 outs to the str8 about a 32% chance to make it, the call is correct. If this is correct so far.... ive read about the BEP (break even percentage) which turns a 3 to 1 call to a 1/4 or 25% chance needed to break even on the call. Im pretty sure this is correct but i want to be sure.
Preflop...
If your getting 2-1 from the BB is a call almost always correct? My analogy of this is because, usually at worse you'll be facing 2 over cards in which case you have about a 35% chance to win and 2-1 odds translates to 3 to 1 to break even or 33%. Thanks to anyone who can prove my basic poker math correct or incorrect.
Comments
If it's 300 before, you're looking at 100 to see the next card for a 400 pot.
Now, your odds of making your straight on the turn OR the river might be 32%. I don't really care about that though. It's best to live in the moment. That's how I like to put it.
Your chances of hitting your straight on the next card (the turn) is about 17%. That's what you want to look at when calculating pot odds.
Here is why.
If you calculate the 32% and call a big bet on the turn, one that is 1/3 of the pot, you are using all of your callable money up in one card. You would have to assume you are going to see a free river card in this situation.
So, like I said, live in the moment. Calculate your chances of hitting the next card and you will lose less money. Then you can feel confident to calculate your odds for the river when your card doesn't hit on the turn.
Understand?
It's nice to know what your odds are of making a hand by the river, but I wouldn't suggest using this in your math when deciding to call or not to call.
Also, do you have any reads on this opponent? You're looking good for the straight. Not much else on the board, but you also have to consider discounted outs (outs that will give you a better hand, but not the best hand).
That depends on the game you are playing. If you are playing tournament, that depends on where you are in the tournament. It also depends on your reads of the person you are pushing.
Also, remember that it's hard to know it's 50-50. Again, discounted outs. If you have a great hand, look at your reads and probability and decide what would help you best in the long run.
For example, if it's a 50-50 in my mind and there are 3 people left (i'm already in the money) and pushing might mean another guy is going to be leaving the tournament, but doubling my chips to make me chip leader, i'll push. If it's the beginning of the tournament where there are 3 people in the hand again, I don't push, given the same hand, assuming I have a decent chip size, of course. But then, that also depends on a lot too. Maybe I will push sometimes.
First off you are getting 4-1 not 3-1 on the call. ($300 in the pot + $100 c-bet = $400 and you need to call $100)
Based purely on the pot odds you are not getting the right price to call here. Adpro already answered that for you. Don't make the mistake of confusing the odds to make your hand by the river with your odds to call a bet on the flop. Don't feel bad about it either it is a common mistake for new players.
If you have reads on this player there is lots more to consider. There are lots of +EV moves you can make depending on the reads that you have and many things to consider.
This player led with a small probe type bet OOP to 2 players. This may or may not be a pretty strong play.
1. Have you seen this before?
2. Is he aggressive?
3. Ever see him 3 bet a flop?
4. Does he make moves at lots of pots and then fold when people push back?
5. Does he double barrel alot?
6. Do you think he will pay you off with a marginal hand?
7. Stack sizes are important here as always. If effective stacks are short enough you do not have the room to make any advance plays. If you are deep there is a lot more moves you can consider especially because you have position in the hand.
Against the right player a raise here may be +EV. He may fold or call a raise and check to you on the turn giving you a free card. You can either fire again or take the free card to try and make your hand.
Against a player who will go way too far with a one pair hand you may have the right implied odds to make a call here. Straights are much better disguised than flushes and the times that you make your hand you may be able to get paid off well against the right type of player.
The play itself as you described it is not supported by the math but combined with other information it can be a perfectly reasonable play.
btw, I hope this wasn't a cash game as the pre-flop call of $100 is really questionable.
Maybe they are playing $25-$50
obv
Position Baby, Position!!!
52 cards in the deck. Less the 2 in your hand and the 3 on board = 47 remaining.
8 Cards in remaining deck make your hand.
8/47 = x/100%
800 = 47x
x = 800/47
x = 17.02%
You have a 17.02% chance of making your hand on the turn
If you miss the turn then you have the same calculation but the 47 becomes 46 because you have another board card.
8/46 = x/100%
800 = 46x
x = 800/46
x = 17.39%
You have a 17.39% chance of making your hand on the river
Now your rule of 2 calculation looks like this:
8 outs X 2 = 16%
close enough right?