Call with the gutshot?

ScoobyD

This hand has been driving me nuts (mainly because I would have hit it). Although in hindsight I think I may have had pot odds to call this... By my count $4.50 in preflop, + 2.50 more on flop makes $7 in pot, so I'm getting 14:1 on the call, and 12:1 on hitting the gutshot (assuming my A and Q outs are counterfeited) Except Qh might not be good, so maybe I only have 3 live outs... Opinions?
*********** # 21 **************
PokerStars Game #789428861: Hold'em Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2004/10/21 - 22:22:09
(ET)
Table 'Bella' Seat #7 is the button
Seat 2: Grdzero ($4.30 in chips)
Seat 3: JDogger ($4.75 in chips)
Seat 4: gmtbone ($2.75 in chips)
Seat 5: ScoobyD ($29.20 in chips)
Seat 6: geppo ($2.60 in chips)
Seat 7: smeare ($19.65 in chips)
Seat 8: Big Rhino ($6.80 in chips)
Seat 9: Tribe709 ($12.50 in chips)
Seat 10: limberger ($4.25 in chips)
Big Rhino: posts small blind $0.10
Tribe709: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ScoobyD [Qd Ad]
limberger: folds
Grdzero: calls $0.25
JDogger: folds
gmtbone: calls $0.25
smeare said, "thanks"
ScoobyD: raises $0.25 to $0.50
geppo: calls $0.50
smeare: raises $0.25 to $0.75
Big Rhino: folds
Tribe709: folds
Grdzero: calls $0.50
gmtbone: calls $0.50
ScoobyD: raises $0.25 to $1
Betting is capped
JillyJo joins the table at seat #1
geppo: folds
smeare: calls $0.25
Grdzero: calls $0.25
gmtbone: calls $0.25
*** FLOP *** [Jh Tc 7h]
Grdzero: bets $0.25
gmtbone: calls $0.25
ScoobyD: calls $0.25
smeare: raises $0.25 to $0.50
Grdzero: raises $0.25 to $0.75
gmtbone: calls $0.50
ScoobyD: folds
smeare: calls $0.25
*** TURN *** [Jh Tc 7h] [Kd]
Grdzero: bets $0.50
gmtbone: folds
smeare: raises $0.50 to $1
Grdzero: calls $0.50
*** RIVER *** [Jh Tc 7h Kd] [2h]
Grdzero: checks
smeare: bets $0.50
Grdzero: calls $0.50
*** SHOW DOWN ***
smeare: shows [As Ks] (a pair of Kings)
Grdzero: mucks hand
smeare collected $9.85 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $10.35 | Rake $0.50
Board [Jh Tc 7h Kd 2h]
Seat 2: Grdzero mucked [Js 5s] - a pair of Jacks
Seat 3: JDogger folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: gmtbone folded on the Turn
Seat 5: ScoobyD folded on the Flop
Seat 6: geppo folded before Flop
Seat 7: smeare (button) showed [As Ks] and won ($9.85) with a pair of Kings
Seat 8: Big Rhino (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: Tribe709 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 10: limberger folded before Flop (didn't bet)

ScoobyD

Sorry, meant Kh, not Qh...

ScottyZ

I would call here, but it's close and heavily depends on your opponents' holdings. Folding is not a bad play here I think.

The pre-flop pot being so large is bascially what makes calling with a gutshot and overcards only* right here IMO.

You should probably assume that the betting will be capped on the flop. You're getting roughly 10-1 in that case. (Another $0.75 to call into a ~$7.50 pot.) If the betting is not capped (as it turned out) your pot odds are even better, probably around 14-1 as you mentioned.

You've got 4 (well, 3 if you may not like to count the Kh) nut outs, and it's possible that the A or Q is good too.

So, your drawing odds (for the turn card only) are probably 14-1 at worst, and might be considerably better.

I'd chase it. :cool:

ScottyZ

*Note that a gutshot and 2 overcards can be a very strong hand sometimes. I really like my chances with Tc 9c on a flop of 3c 6h 8d, mainly because the chances that pairing up an overcard being good go way up. In this example, pairing the A or Q may or may not win you the hand. Also there are more likely to be dead Kings out in hole cards than 7's.

BBC Z

Facing a raise and a re-raise on a 2 flush, open ended straight draws aplenty flop (and the fact a made straight could be out there) I would fold just like you did after calling the original .25. While you have 3 outs to draw to to the inside straight, you are still not safe because if the board pairs you could be dead. All that betting on the flop makes me think Set vs Top pair.. As for those overcard outs, I value them far less when people start firing their guns..

Seeing that the hand actually played out with crummy Kings winnings, make a note on those hyper agressive players and discount the value of their raises in the future.

The Hawk

at pokerstars always call for a gutshot the worst hand there usually hits on the river

ScoobyD

Thanks guys. Needless to say I was shocked with the weak hands I saw afterwords. Would you have capped on this flop? I didn't necessarily feel my A-Q was the best hand, but I felt like the 2 early limpers had weak hands, and thought this was a good opportunity to get extra bets out of them, as I had a reasonable drawing hand... I thought I'd mix up my play here, but I probably wouldn't have capped with A-Q offsuit...

ScottyZ

Would you have capped on this flop?

You mean pre-flop?

I might cap it. To some degree it depends on what kind of hand I put the re-raising opponent on.

ScottyZ

ScoobyD

Sorry, meant preflop... I was worried about A-K, but could also see the 3 bet with middle pp. Most of the players were very loose, and I saw this as more of an opportunity to get extra bets out of the loose players, even if I was behind against the raiser.

Chugs

out of curiosity a few weeks ago because of a similar situation i was running some numbers.

In certain situations, with say a gutshot and two live overcards and something like a backdoor (ie. runner runner) flush draw you can be ahead of a guy holding top pair.

While these guys were raising with less than spectacular hands, their betting on the flop acheived the desired result, it convinced a draw or possibly someone with middle pair (who could have made two pair) to drop their hands.

ScottyZ

ScoobyD wrote:

Sorry, meant preflop... I was worried about A-K, but could also see the 3 bet with middle pp. Most of the players were very loose, and I saw this as more of an opportunity to get extra bets out of the loose players, even if I was behind against the raiser.

The main thing to worry about with loose limpers is that AQs may actually be in big trouble if you're in a multi-way hand with loose limpers *and* a re-raising hand.

If your re-raising opponent has something awful (for you) like AA, KK, QQ, AK, or AQ, you may turn out to be the multi-way underdog to even the loose limpers. On the other hand, if you have two overcards to *all* of your opponents, you are generally in excellent shape.

The main point is that in a multi-way hand, the non-dominated hands may turn out to have the best of it, though such hands may appear weak in isolation.

For example, an 67s may be doing better than you might think mutli-way if it's up against hands which are typically good raising hands but may be dominating/counterfeiting each other, like all of AQ, AK, KQ. In this example, the KQ is almost drawing dead.

Of course, that was a cooked up example to demonstrate a point, which is that loose limping hands may be a concern for a medium strength* pre-flop raising hand like AQs when facing a re-raise.

However, if you have seen this particular opponent re-raise pre-flop with very weak (by re-raising standards) hands, for example, medium or low pocket pairs, capping it is probably right.

ScottyZ

*By medium strength, I mean medium strength among pre-flop raising hands.

BBC Z

In certain situations, with say a gutshot and two live overcards and something like a backdoor (ie. runner runner) flush draw you can be ahead of a guy holding top pair.

yeah and all you need to do is figure out the exact two cards the player is holding and never be wrong in order to make it profitable. Good luck. Thats why things like twodimes can be deceiving, you know both hands so all the hidden outs get counted for/against you.