You know its a 50-50 on the bubble.
I think i already know the answer to this scenerio but i wouldnt mind some input. I just finished a sit N go and I had about 4k the leader had 5.5k and the other 2 guys were at about 2.5k (i know these counts off off but there a decent estimate)...
I Have Kd9d and i raise 3x the bb which is about 480 only the leader calls
Flop comes 6d 10s Jd
I raise half the pot hopping to take it there but the leader pushed me all in.. I figure hes got top pair maybe middle pair, but ive got a flushdraw, gutshot straight and an over card to the board. This leaves me with 8 flush outs + 4 queens + 3 Kings.... so 15 outs. So im like a 50-50 agaisnt top pair. I make the call. (i wont say the outcome because its kind of irrelevant)
I personally dont think this decesion was correct because i didnt need to call the all in, i wasnt pot commited, I tangoed with the chip leader when there where 2 middle stacked opponents left. I think the better play in those scenerios is to fold and just save the 50-50 situations for the players with less chips than you or untill your desperate to make a move.
I Have Kd9d and i raise 3x the bb which is about 480 only the leader calls
Flop comes 6d 10s Jd
I raise half the pot hopping to take it there but the leader pushed me all in.. I figure hes got top pair maybe middle pair, but ive got a flushdraw, gutshot straight and an over card to the board. This leaves me with 8 flush outs + 4 queens + 3 Kings.... so 15 outs. So im like a 50-50 agaisnt top pair. I make the call. (i wont say the outcome because its kind of irrelevant)
I personally dont think this decesion was correct because i didnt need to call the all in, i wasnt pot commited, I tangoed with the chip leader when there where 2 middle stacked opponents left. I think the better play in those scenerios is to fold and just save the 50-50 situations for the players with less chips than you or untill your desperate to make a move.
Comments
you bet the turn in position? now you've committed almost 25% of your stack on a draw. you could be a lot worse than 50/50 too. me no likey.
you'll get better feedback if you just post the hand history.
a push preflop is wayyy better if there's a decent pot already out there.
Why you would commit 1/2 to 1/3 of your stack if you are going to fold a flush and straight draw?
Just ship it in and go for the win. Chances are you have the best hand and he is bluffing you thinking you can't call, but with your bets you are now about the same stack size as the other two players. If you were going to play the hand and continuation bet then go for it.
The real mistake is betting the flop an amount that opens you to a raise/bluff. If you checked the flop or pushed the flop then you wouldn’t be in such a bind.
Just the pot odds is not sufficient.
You have to calculate the bubble factor.
Assuming a 50/30/20 prize distribution
Before the hand..
chips ICM Equity
Leader 5500 .3226
You 4000 .2744
guy3 2500 .2015
guy4 2500 .2015
If you win
Leader 1500 .1542
you 8000 .3887
guy3 2500 .2286
guy4 2500 .2286
If you lose
Leader 9500 .4239
You 0 0
guy3 2500 .2881
guy4 2500 .2881
Winning increases your equity from .2744 to .3887 ... a gain of .1143
Losing decreases your equity from .2744 to 0 ........... a loss of .2744
Your bubble factor is ... 2744/1143 = 2.4
Losing hurts 2.4 times a much as winning... money wise...
This means the chips you're risking are 2.4 times more valuable than the ones you're attempting to gain...
LISTEN...
for a 50/50 you need to be getting 2.4 times the chips!
You shouldn't be in this hand... You're right, you should be beating up on the little stacks... don't tango with the chip leader without AA or KK preflop...
Also, you need to re-think your outs.
First off, a flush draw is 9.
Since you have a K, and one of those is Kd, you have 2 king outs.
You also have 3 Q's (Qd to the flush)
9+2+3 = 14 (but that's not correct)
However, you have to take out the K's, cause you said he could have AA, or I could see him with a better straight draw, or maybe even two pairs or a set. You have to calculate the winning hand, so I don't like your top pair - K's are out.
Also, your straight is decent, but he could be on AK or AQ very easily here. If you hit your straight or pair, he might have a better straight or pair. He also might be looking for the K for the straight, or have QQ - what if Q T comes on the turn and river? Either way, that's kind of far reached, but there are too many hands he could be on that would beat your straight. So, beating him after you hit your straight or pair is almost a coin toss on its own. He could even have AdQd, but that's not likely, so you should only calculate for the flush in this situation.
Remember, most people play their A-x hands and fold most of the rest. The chances of him having A-Q or A-K are pretty good if he puts you all-in.
So, you have 9 outs to the flush, not 15 or 14. Not even looking at your chips ICM Equity, you shouldn't be calling this raise.