Thanks for your detailed reply. Now look at this thing I wrote up to illustrate my point.
Here is one example showing my pot odds theory;
Below are the bets for pre-flop, flop and turn, from bottom to top, with three players participating, you're the one on the right. You have to decide whether to call the 2 bet or fold.
2 2
3 3 3
3 3 3
When the 2 bet came to you the pot odds were 11:1. Suppose you had hand odds of 8:1. This looks favorable to you based on the published pot odds betting method. If you call 9 times you will lose the total 8 units you had put in the pot 8 times, a total of 64 units lost, and win the other players' 16 units once for a total loss of 64-16=48 units. If you fold 9 times you would lose your two 3 bets for a total loss of 9x6=54 units. So folding instead of calling will cost you 64-54=10 units more than calling. So you can see that no profit was made even though your pot odds were higher than your hand odds. It's a matter of losing 64 units or 54 units, so you prefer the 54 unit loss.
Now let's suppose that your hand odds, with the same bets, is higher than the pot odds, 15:1 for example. Published pot odds method says fold. By calling 16 times you lose 8 units 15 times, total loss 120 units, and win the opponents' 16 units once for a total loss of 120-16=104 units. By folding 16 times you lose 6x16=96 units. By folding you lose 104-96=8 units less than by calling. Again, you have a loss by either calling or folding but this time folding produced a lower loss than calling because your pot odds were lower than your hand odds.
Now suppose your hand odds and pot odds were identical, both 11:1. Calling 12 times you lose 8 units 11 times, total 88 units, and win the opponents' 16 units once for a total loss of 88-16=72 units. Folding 12 times you lose 6x12=72 units, exactly equal. Though you had perfectly even pot and hand odds you lost 72 units whether you called or folded. You probably would have expected to have no loss or profit whatsoever but you lost money in both cases.
Now let's say you have the same bets with the 11:1 pot odds but your hand odds are 2:1, the same as the ratio of number of opponents to you. Theoretically, according to the published poker literature, you should have a huge advantage by calling, making almost 6 times what you lose. Let's see if you really do. Calling 3 times you lose your 8 units twice, total 16 units, and win the opponents' 16 units once, exactly even. Folding 3 times you lose your 6 units 3 times, total 18 units. You lost only 2 units by folding and made no profit at all by calling. Where did the expected huge profit go? You either came out dead even or you lost 2 units.
Now this last result is surprising, because I expected it to work out even. Nonetheless, the main point is that although your hand odds were vastly better than your pot odds you made no profit whatsoever by calling and only lost 2 units, a mere 11.11% of your total bets, by folding. So, apparently, to make a profit you need hand odds a little better than the ratio of opponents to you. In all other instances, all you could do was minimize your losses by choosing to call or fold based on pot odds being either higher or lower than hand odds.
Again, hand odds are different and pot odds are the chances of you making the best hand!!! Hand odds just tells you how strong your hand is!!
I made a small error again at the end of that last post. By folding you lose 18 units and since you came out even by calling, you lost 18 more by folding than calling. I really expected them to both come out even so I don't know why the large loss by folding occurs. Anyway, I edited that last part to remove the error.
"1] Calculating The ‘Card Odds'
First of all we need to find out how likely we are to catch another heart on the turn. This can be done in many ways, but the most popular way is to find the ratio of cards in the deck that we don’t want against cards that we do want.
There are 5 cards in this hand that we know, our 2 holecards and the 3 cards on the flop.
This leaves us with 47 cards in the deck that we do not know.
Out of those 47 there are 9 cards that will make our flush and 38 that will not.
If we put this into a ratio it gives us 38:9, or roughly 4:1.
2] Compare With Pot Odds Now we know that the odds of hitting a heart on the next card are 4:1. This means for every 4 times we don’t catch a heart, 1 time we will. Next we have to calculate the same ratio of odds using the amount that is in the pot and the bet we are facing.
Our opponent has bet $20 into an $80 pot making it $100.
This means we have to call $20 to stand a chance of winning $100.
This makes our odds $100:$20 which works out to equal 5:1 pot odds.
So...
Card Odds: 4:1 Pot Odds: 5:1 This means that we should call as the odds we are getting from the pot are bigger than the odds that we will hit our flush on the next card. In the long run we will be winning more money than we are losing."
This is wrong because, as I just showed, you will not win more money than you lose, unless in this case you were up against less than four opponents. You will lose money whether you call or fold if there are over four opponents and your hand odds are 4:1. Both choices have a negative expectation, you just have to choose the one with lowest negative expectation. See, I told you the books were wrong and people just mocked me. What does that say about them?
This is wrong because, as I just showed, you will not win more money than you lose
if you have a positive EV, you will win more money than you lose. Where's Beanie with his coin flip example when you need him?? Have to give you three stars for confidence.
Sorry, but you won't be getting the Nobel Prize for your poker "discovery." As Angel Largay pointed out in his book, most players who talk about "pot odds" don't really understand pot odds. Everytime you put chips in the pot, do what pkrfce9 does and kiss them goodbye while saying "I'll see you in hell!" because those chips are no longer yours.
Your EV calculations are wrong. Folding has an EV of zero, while calling has a positive expectation and is the best play. Some players are scared of variance and having to possibly rebuy, and wrongly fold.
If you can't wrap your head around this and stick to your anti-pot odds theory, then you can't even beat the ABC "flawed pot odds players" and you will still be playing micro limits four years from now.
the main point is that although your hand odds were vastly better than your pot odds you made no profit whatsoever by calling. In all instances, all you could do was minimize your losses by choosing to call or fold based on pot odds being either higher or lower than hand odds.
"1] Calculating The ‘Card Odds'
First of all we need to find out how likely we are to catch another heart on the turn. This can be done in many ways, but the most popular way is to find the ratio of cards in the deck that we don’t want against cards that we do want.
There are 5 cards in this hand that we know, our 2 holecards and the 3 cards on the flop.
This leaves us with 47 cards in the deck that we do not know.
Out of those 47 there are 9 cards that will make our flush and 38 that will not.
If we put this into a ratio it gives us 38:9, or roughly 4:1.
2] Compare With Pot Odds Now we know that the odds of hitting a heart on the next card are 4:1. This means for every 4 times we don’t catch a heart, 1 time we will. Next we have to calculate the same ratio of odds using the amount that is in the pot and the bet we are facing.
Our opponent has bet $20 into an $80 pot making it $100.
This means we have to call $20 to stand a chance of winning $100.
This makes our odds $100:$20 which works out to equal 5:1 pot odds.
So...
Card Odds: 4:1 Pot Odds: 5:1 This means that we should call as the odds we are getting from the pot are bigger than the odds that we will hit our flush on the next card. In the long run we will be winning more money than we are losing."
This is wrong because, as I just showed, you will not win more money than you lose, unless in this case you were up against less than four opponents. You will lose money whether you call or fold if there are over four opponents and your hand odds are 4:1. Both choices have a negative expectation, you just have to choose the one with lowest negative expectation. See, I told you the books were wrong and people just mocked me. What does that say about them?
Did you read my post?
POT ODDS ARE FOR YOUR ONE SITUATION ONLY
Yes, with pot odds on your side and going by pot odds all the time, you will either break even or lose, or get lucky and win.
The problem is, if everyone used pot odds and they were always used, everyone would just be transferring money from one person to the other.
Here is what we have though.
1) People who don't use pot odds. (rely on luck and probably lose a lot of money)
2) People who use them all the time and rely on nothing but pot odds. (breaks even or makes a bit of money)
3) People who use them to make decisions about their play, but sometimes don't rely on them based on tells and their opponents. (the most profitable if used correctly)
So, as I said before, MAKING MONEY ISN'T BASED ON WHETHER OR NOT YOUR POT ODDS ARE CORRECT!!!!!
POT ODDS HELPS YOU DECIDE IF IT MAKES SENSE TO CALL!! YOU CAN EXPECT TO MAKE MONEY WHEN YOU HIT!!!! WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THE REAL WORLD, NOT A PURE MATHEMATICAL GAME!!!
Do you understand?
Pot odds gives you the chance to not lose too much money calling bets.
Factor this in.
If you decide you have 3 outs and maybe the best hand on the board already, and there are 2 other hands that can beat yours on the board, but you decide your pots odds make sense, cause you only have to call a raise that is 5% of the pot (someone is slow playing you with the nuts, or they have a hand that needs to hit both the river and the turn), will you fold because your chances of winning are technically low because you have a whole bunch of people in the pot?
No, you may even want to bet way more, way out of the mathematical thought in order to get most people out of the pot so you can hopefully win. Especially if you have something like A's after the flop, and only the two other A's and pairing up your other card will increase your hand strength. You want to push out possible draws ASAP.
In other words, you can't use just math to win. You have to play the game and you have to include money put in before and after your pot odds calculations. Sure, if you take it for its pure mathematical situation, you're right, you would end up losing. You still neglect to include how much you will end up winning if you made your hand.
Playing based on how strong or weak your hand is based on what else could be made will end up killing you in the end. You have to look at the bigger picture. How strong is your hand compared to everyone elses (tells) and how strong can your hand be (outs).
For example, in ring games I play a lot looser (not too lose) than i do at the beginning of a tournament. Mathematically they should be the same, shouldn't they? No.
Poker has a lot of math that can help you make good decisions, but there are a lot of poker players out there that are pros that don't use pot odds. They go by feel and experience.
I'll say this as an end note.
POT ODDS ARE THERE TO MAKE SURE YOU MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS POSSIBLE WHEN YOU NEED TO MAKE A DECISION. THEY ARE PROVEN MATHEMATICS THAT MAKE SENSE.
Got it?
I think this is a closed topic. This will be my final post here. If you want to know more about it, read this again and understand that you can't replay fully on math and the math you are talking about is just a portion of a much larger picture.
There, that's the best way to explain it.
You are focusing on the specific math too much. Pot odds are just a mathematical system that is imbeded into a much larger formula that would involve human decision making and emotion. Poker is not an exact science, but making the odds work in your favour proves to be profitable in the long run.
Thanks for your detailed reply. Now look at this thing I wrote up to illustrate my point.
Here is one example showing my pot odds theory;
Below are the bets for pre-flop, flop and turn, from bottom to top, with three players participating, you're the one on the right. You have to decide whether to call the 2 bet or fold.
2 2
3 3 3
3 3 3
When the 2 bet came to you the pot odds were 11:1. Suppose you had hand odds of 8:1. This looks favorable to you based on the published pot odds betting method. If you call 9 times you will lose the total 8 units you had put in the pot 8 times, a total of 64 units lost, and win the other players' 16 units once for a total loss of 64-16=48 units. If you fold 9 times you would lose your two 3 bets for a total loss of 9x6=54 units. So folding instead of calling will cost you 64-54=10 units more than calling. So you can see that no profit was made even though your pot odds were higher than your hand odds. It's a matter of losing 64 units or 54 units, so you prefer the 54 unit loss.
Good analysis but you misinterpreted your results. By your own numbers you say:
If you call 9 times you lose 48 units. You>> ""If you call 9 times you will lose the total 8 units you had put in the pot 8 times, a total of 64 units lost, and win the other players' 16 units once for a total loss of 64-16=48 units.""
If you fold 9 times you lose 54 units. You>> ""If you fold 9 times you would lose your two 3 bets for a total loss of 9x6=54 units. ""
Good analysis but you misinterpreted your results. By your own numbers you say:
If you call 9 times you lose 48 units. You>> ""If you call 9 times you will lose the total 8 units you had put in the pot 8 times, a total of 64 units lost, and win the other players' 16 units once for a total loss of 64-16=48 units.""
If you fold 9 times you lose 54 units. You>> ""If you fold 9 times you would lose your two 3 bets for a total loss of 9x6=54 units. ""
Seems to me calling is better than folding.
You're right. I meant that but I just wrote it down wrong. Thanks for pointing it out.
To the poker pro, yeah, I sort of read your post with the card images in it. It wasn't the subject I was referring to so I didn't actually get very involved in it since it was a lot of reading about something other than what I was talking about. You obviously have an interpretation of pot odds which is all your own. I was referring to the ones published in Poker reference books in which it is stated that you will win more than you will lose in the long run by calling when the pot-to-call-amount ratio is larger than the hand win to loss ratio. I'm not saying your post was wrong, just that it wasn't what I was talking about so obviously whether or not it was valid was of little significance to me. I've never heard of such an interpretation but you'll certainly welcome to make your own up. I don't know why you got so upset about it, but that's your business. Some people just have unpleasant dispositions for whatever reasons, which I won't even try to guess at. I don't recall being rude to you but from what I've seen, this is a forum where rudeness is the norm so why should the resident poker pro be any different? Is this a Canadian poker forum or a New York one? I can't believe most Canadians would be that cranky and rude.
this is a forum where rudeness is the norm so why should the resident poker pro be any different? Is this a Canadian poker forum or a New York one? I can't believe most Canadians would be that cranky and rude.
timmy, i think you are on to something. don't let these lunkheads discourage you.
i'm curious what the right move is when you are in a pot with 4 others and you flop a low straight. say you have 74o and the flop comes 865 with 2 to a flush. the pot is now equal to your stack. do you bet/raise/fold here?
I think the best way to respond to these long analysis threads is to suggest the player use conventional poker wisdom to beat games then work to develop thier own strategies. I certainly have gone against the norm in my poker career at many times but I learned how to beat the game using standard wisdom then experimented with my own strategies.
You're right. I meant that but I just wrote it down wrong. Thanks for pointing it out.
To the poker pro, yeah, I sort of read your post with the card images in it. It wasn't the subject I was referring to so I didn't actually get very involved in it since it was a lot of reading about something other than what I was talking about. You obviously have an interpretation of pot odds which is all your own. I was referring to the ones published in Poker reference books in which it is stated that you will win more than you will lose in the long run by calling when the pot-to-call-amount ratio is larger than the hand win to loss ratio. I'm not saying your post was wrong, just that it wasn't what I was talking about so obviously whether or not it was valid was of little significance to me. I've never heard of such an interpretation but you'll certainly welcome to make your own up. I don't know why you got so upset about it, but that's your business. Some people just have unpleasant dispositions for whatever reasons, which I won't even try to guess at. I don't recall being rude to you but from what I've seen, this is a forum where rudeness is the norm so why should the resident poker pro be any different? Is this a Canadian poker forum or a New York one? I can't believe most Canadians would be that cranky and rude.
If he ever sees this, I'll just say this.
First of all, I said that you were good for trying to think outside of the box and to ignore the rude remarks.
Second, my post was exactly what you were talking about. You were asking why pot odds works. I was saying that pot odds are simply a portion of a big picture and the best way to make decisions on calling is to use pot odds. You ignored the post, and I wasn't angry or being rude.
I was simply trying to point out where your errors were, as were so many other posters. You just seem to neglect to think about what we had to say and go on your marry way thinking you are correct and we are all wrong. What I was referring to was exactly where you are going wrong.
So, yes, us Canadians get fed up and start being rude to ignorant people who won't listen to advice give to you from other players. Also, I am by no means a poker pro. That's just a nick name of mine. I did mention that I am new to poker in my posts as well. Yet another piece of evidence proving that you obviously don't read what the other posters have posted. That's probably no the best way to learn.
Now, if you aren't going to listen to us, I urge you to play the way you think you should by what you have shown us, and I hope to see you at the tables one day.
Comments
Again, hand odds are different and pot odds are the chances of you making the best hand!!! Hand odds just tells you how strong your hand is!!
I'll go more into this later.
and they have four hearts drawing for a flush;
"1] Calculating The ‘Card Odds'
First of all we need to find out how likely we are to catch another heart on the turn. This can be done in many ways, but the most popular way is to find the ratio of cards in the deck that we don’t want against cards that we do want.
- There are 5 cards in this hand that we know, our 2 holecards and the 3 cards on the flop.
- This leaves us with 47 cards in the deck that we do not know.
- Out of those 47 there are 9 cards that will make our flush and 38 that will not.
- If we put this into a ratio it gives us 38:9, or roughly 4:1.
2] Compare With Pot Odds Now we know that the odds of hitting a heart on the next card are 4:1. This means for every 4 times we don’t catch a heart, 1 time we will. Next we have to calculate the same ratio of odds using the amount that is in the pot and the bet we are facing.- Our opponent has bet $20 into an $80 pot making it $100.
- This means we have to call $20 to stand a chance of winning $100.
- This makes our odds $100:$20 which works out to equal 5:1 pot odds.
So...Card Odds: 4:1 Pot Odds: 5:1 This means that we should call as the odds we are getting from the pot are bigger than the odds that we will hit our flush on the next card. In the long run we will be winning more money than we are losing."
This is wrong because, as I just showed, you will not win more money than you lose, unless in this case you were up against less than four opponents. You will lose money whether you call or fold if there are over four opponents and your hand odds are 4:1. Both choices have a negative expectation, you just have to choose the one with lowest negative expectation. See, I told you the books were wrong and people just mocked me. What does that say about them?
if you have a positive EV, you will win more money than you lose. Where's Beanie with his coin flip example when you need him?? Have to give you three stars for confidence.
Your EV calculations are wrong. Folding has an EV of zero, while calling has a positive expectation and is the best play. Some players are scared of variance and having to possibly rebuy, and wrongly fold.
If you can't wrap your head around this and stick to your anti-pot odds theory, then you can't even beat the ABC "flawed pot odds players" and you will still be playing micro limits four years from now.
Did you read my post?
POT ODDS ARE FOR YOUR ONE SITUATION ONLY
Yes, with pot odds on your side and going by pot odds all the time, you will either break even or lose, or get lucky and win.
The problem is, if everyone used pot odds and they were always used, everyone would just be transferring money from one person to the other.
Here is what we have though.
1) People who don't use pot odds. (rely on luck and probably lose a lot of money)
2) People who use them all the time and rely on nothing but pot odds. (breaks even or makes a bit of money)
3) People who use them to make decisions about their play, but sometimes don't rely on them based on tells and their opponents. (the most profitable if used correctly)
So, as I said before, MAKING MONEY ISN'T BASED ON WHETHER OR NOT YOUR POT ODDS ARE CORRECT!!!!!
POT ODDS HELPS YOU DECIDE IF IT MAKES SENSE TO CALL!! YOU CAN EXPECT TO MAKE MONEY WHEN YOU HIT!!!! WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THE REAL WORLD, NOT A PURE MATHEMATICAL GAME!!!
Do you understand?
Pot odds gives you the chance to not lose too much money calling bets.
Factor this in.
If you decide you have 3 outs and maybe the best hand on the board already, and there are 2 other hands that can beat yours on the board, but you decide your pots odds make sense, cause you only have to call a raise that is 5% of the pot (someone is slow playing you with the nuts, or they have a hand that needs to hit both the river and the turn), will you fold because your chances of winning are technically low because you have a whole bunch of people in the pot?
No, you may even want to bet way more, way out of the mathematical thought in order to get most people out of the pot so you can hopefully win. Especially if you have something like A's after the flop, and only the two other A's and pairing up your other card will increase your hand strength. You want to push out possible draws ASAP.
In other words, you can't use just math to win. You have to play the game and you have to include money put in before and after your pot odds calculations. Sure, if you take it for its pure mathematical situation, you're right, you would end up losing. You still neglect to include how much you will end up winning if you made your hand.
Playing based on how strong or weak your hand is based on what else could be made will end up killing you in the end. You have to look at the bigger picture. How strong is your hand compared to everyone elses (tells) and how strong can your hand be (outs).
For example, in ring games I play a lot looser (not too lose) than i do at the beginning of a tournament. Mathematically they should be the same, shouldn't they? No.
Poker has a lot of math that can help you make good decisions, but there are a lot of poker players out there that are pros that don't use pot odds. They go by feel and experience.
I'll say this as an end note.
POT ODDS ARE THERE TO MAKE SURE YOU MAKE THE BEST DECISIONS POSSIBLE WHEN YOU NEED TO MAKE A DECISION. THEY ARE PROVEN MATHEMATICS THAT MAKE SENSE.
Got it?
I think this is a closed topic. This will be my final post here. If you want to know more about it, read this again and understand that you can't replay fully on math and the math you are talking about is just a portion of a much larger picture.
There, that's the best way to explain it.
You are focusing on the specific math too much. Pot odds are just a mathematical system that is imbeded into a much larger formula that would involve human decision making and emotion. Poker is not an exact science, but making the odds work in your favour proves to be profitable in the long run.
If you call 9 times you lose 48 units. You>> ""If you call 9 times you will lose the total 8 units you had put in the pot 8 times, a total of 64 units lost, and win the other players' 16 units once for a total loss of 64-16=48 units.""
If you fold 9 times you lose 54 units. You>> ""If you fold 9 times you would lose your two 3 bets for a total loss of 9x6=54 units. ""
Seems to me calling is better than folding.
You're right. I meant that but I just wrote it down wrong. Thanks for pointing it out.
To the poker pro, yeah, I sort of read your post with the card images in it. It wasn't the subject I was referring to so I didn't actually get very involved in it since it was a lot of reading about something other than what I was talking about. You obviously have an interpretation of pot odds which is all your own. I was referring to the ones published in Poker reference books in which it is stated that you will win more than you will lose in the long run by calling when the pot-to-call-amount ratio is larger than the hand win to loss ratio. I'm not saying your post was wrong, just that it wasn't what I was talking about so obviously whether or not it was valid was of little significance to me. I've never heard of such an interpretation but you'll certainly welcome to make your own up. I don't know why you got so upset about it, but that's your business. Some people just have unpleasant dispositions for whatever reasons, which I won't even try to guess at. I don't recall being rude to you but from what I've seen, this is a forum where rudeness is the norm so why should the resident poker pro be any different? Is this a Canadian poker forum or a New York one? I can't believe most Canadians would be that cranky and rude.
i'm curious what the right move is when you are in a pot with 4 others and you flop a low straight. say you have 74o and the flop comes 865 with 2 to a flush. the pot is now equal to your stack. do you bet/raise/fold here?
This summarizes this entire thread.
QFT.
Mark
I vote Reddington.
Maybe there is a correlation with an 'X' in your forum name:
i) CindyXXX
ii) TimmyX
(You remember him Mark? )
Hellz yea... mad skillz.. I think he co-wrote the book with the x's there
Mark
xxCindyxx would never associate with such riff raff. Please do not sully her good name and unparalleled poker skills by insinuating she might.
If he ever sees this, I'll just say this.
First of all, I said that you were good for trying to think outside of the box and to ignore the rude remarks.
Second, my post was exactly what you were talking about. You were asking why pot odds works. I was saying that pot odds are simply a portion of a big picture and the best way to make decisions on calling is to use pot odds. You ignored the post, and I wasn't angry or being rude.
I was simply trying to point out where your errors were, as were so many other posters. You just seem to neglect to think about what we had to say and go on your marry way thinking you are correct and we are all wrong. What I was referring to was exactly where you are going wrong.
So, yes, us Canadians get fed up and start being rude to ignorant people who won't listen to advice give to you from other players. Also, I am by no means a poker pro. That's just a nick name of mine. I did mention that I am new to poker in my posts as well. Yet another piece of evidence proving that you obviously don't read what the other posters have posted. That's probably no the best way to learn.
Now, if you aren't going to listen to us, I urge you to play the way you think you should by what you have shown us, and I hope to see you at the tables one day.
I watched that EXACT episode of Star Trek just this past week when I was sick.. It's the first time we meet Sarek (Spock's daddy)
Mark