Folding Sets on the Flop
I remember a hand very clearly from a time when I first started playing Poker about 5 years ago.
I was at a club tournament in Toronto and was dealt 88 in one of the blinds. It was relatively early on. An MP player who I respected standard raised PF and I called. The Flop came Qd/10x/8d. He ends up shoving my 3bet and I fold face up.
I was new to poker and basically the entire table informed me that I was never to fold a set on the flop. Like a child learning to talk - this is all I have ever remembered about hitting sets.
Which leads me to an interesting spot last night.
6 handed, I call a standard raise from the SB with 55 - against from a player whos game I respect. It is the second blind level, but I have chipped down about 20% of my starting stack.
I lead for pot on a Js7s5s flop. He raises basically committing both of us.
I know this player doesnt make this move if he's not huge.
Everything points to being beat. Then I remember that day from long ago - and push.
So my question - Is it ever right to fold a set on the flop (please no tournament bubble responses)? What are these situations?
I was at a club tournament in Toronto and was dealt 88 in one of the blinds. It was relatively early on. An MP player who I respected standard raised PF and I called. The Flop came Qd/10x/8d. He ends up shoving my 3bet and I fold face up.
I was new to poker and basically the entire table informed me that I was never to fold a set on the flop. Like a child learning to talk - this is all I have ever remembered about hitting sets.
Which leads me to an interesting spot last night.
6 handed, I call a standard raise from the SB with 55 - against from a player whos game I respect. It is the second blind level, but I have chipped down about 20% of my starting stack.
I lead for pot on a Js7s5s flop. He raises basically committing both of us.
I know this player doesnt make this move if he's not huge.
Everything points to being beat. Then I remember that day from long ago - and push.
So my question - Is it ever right to fold a set on the flop (please no tournament bubble responses)? What are these situations?
Comments
Using the Ching Hill structure if I had 600-700 chips and the blinds were 10-20, I think I would ship it in.
I find it better to go broke to give myself a chance of winning then to hang on with a smaller stack to go broke at a later level.
Player with more chips then me pushes all in after flop.
$500 in pot preflop + his $1500 bet = $2000
I have about $1000 left so 2-1 on the pot odds.
I figured he hit flush on flop so now the decision is based on pot odds, right?
Outs?
6 outs from the board possible pairs
1 out for quads
so 7 outs with 2 cards to come = 28%+3 more outs if the turn doesn't hit
Lets say 3-1 odds for me to win and pot odds 2-1. hmmm, maybe a bad call but there is still possibility he doesn't even have the flush???
Very hard decision. Anyways, I call and he flips over flush and I miss turn and river and I am out.
So is there ever a situation - in a regular tournament - where folding a set on the flop could be considered?
Obv. much easier decision on the turn/riv on a 4 flush/str8 board.
in a cash game, the answer is usually 'no!'
you have to have a very coordinated board and a very good read on your opponent to even consider a fold. after all, they could be making the same move with an overpair, 2 ppppprrrrrrr, worse set (when you have top or middle set), TPTK or a draw. even when you are behind a straight or flush, you have so many outs it could be worth it to try to draw out yourself (again, depends on depth of stacks). only when you have bottom set would you worry about a higher set and most guys will tell you that is baaaaaaaad poker.
in the past few weeks, i have flopped top set 3 times and lost to 2 made straights (one with 63s, the other 76o) and the other to a guy drawing to an open-ended SF draw. with 65s. if i had won these, i'd have about 3k more in my pockets. do i feel bad? ya. would i play them differently? no.
Three players see the flop. You're middle position behind BB, who's game you respect, but known to make moves when called for, and LP is a fairly new player you've only been in hands with a couple of times but know to be abit loose and aggressive.
BB checks, you lead out with top set for 3/4 pot. LP 3bet raises you. BB then pushes, and if called, would mean busting out both players. Classic squeeze play, but the decision is now for ALL your chips with another player behind you.
I am far less likely to even consider a fold in that situation for 2 reasons.
1) Top set is a much different situation than bottom set (especially when there's action PF and paint on the flop).
2) The pot is much sicker 3 way, with all the money in. I don't think that I could resist that equity given that I don't have to worry about drawing to quads.
without reads in a heads up pot...no... to fold you would need to know that your opponent was bad enough that they would only ever be shoving a flush on a monotone flop and then you would need to be getting worse than 2:1 odds to call on the shove
i guess you could fold a set if you are really really deep and have bottom set on a really dry flop after a few raises and reraises
We're talking about a set not trips. Big difference obviously.
You have to push either way. I think the worst thing you will see here is set against set, before the turn or the river of course.
He probably has a spade and at least top pair. I'm thinking he's pushing to try to push you off of this hand. He has 9 outs to the flush (maybe he is on the nut flush draw) and a pair (could be as high as aces). Hell, I have seen a lot of people raise with AJos whos game I respected.
Either way, push here and if you lose, just remember you want to be in similar situations because you will win most of the time. You want other people to give you all of their money without having to figure out how to take it.
I remember reading this story but it was a turn decision, 6th place.
"If he had raised me on the flop, I probably would’ve gone broke."
What's My Line? -- Mike Matusow - Poker News - CardPlayer.com
I also remember another CP cash game tale, during which there was reference to the hero in past 'correctly folding middle set to me on the flop'. Um...they must have been very deep?
Yes, in Omaha.
No seriously, as previously stated I think you need to put your opponent on a pretty tight range of hands and just trust when that card comes out that regardless of what you have, you need to trust your read.
An example might be when tighty limps in UTG, you raise from MP with 99. Folded around to you and Tighty min raises you. You call and see a Flop of AK9 rainbow. He checks the flop to you. You bet, he min-raises again. What do you do?
I think it's clear. I would fold.
stp
P.s. I had a hand at one of the Lucky Lou tournaments here in KW where it was 3 handed, all limped preflop. Flop 459 rainbow. I had set of fours, dude had set of fives. I bet the flop, he raised me, I just called and honestly put him on 55. Lucklily I hit quads on the turn.....
Anyway, my point is that you can see them if you look hard enough.
A's and a set of K's....
I think the variables defined here are too generic to make an accurate deduction. You have not defined huge...is huge the nut flush or is huge, has a hand could be drawing to the nut flush.
In this situation I would like to know the range you put on the preflop raiser. What kind of hands does he normally come in with and is he making a move because he has position.
When you can identify roughly what cards Villian would open with you would be able to narrow down his hand holding on the flop.
In this situation specifically I try to keep the pot controlled, maybe check calling the flop and then hoping to get a checked turn, and check call river. Its not a cash game so I don't wish to go broke so early and with such a highly co-ordinated board.
On a rainbow board I go broke with sets all the time. Its so hard sometimes to figure out if the villian is betting 2 pair or top set because most times they can't figure out what you have either.....lol.
Seeing monsters under the bed? In holdem without a fantastic read you cannot fold an boat. Now if it were Omaha, underboat is a fairly easy fold if there is a lot of action.
Thats a Jennifer Tilly read. Consider the quad lol
POTD
But wait until AFTER his date trolls by. Wouldn't want her to get the wrong impreesion of him, now would we?
Lets explore the idea of folding a set on the flop against the nittiest of pre-flop nits.
$100 NL. Villain opens to $3.50 in the CO and we are on the button with two black 9's. Effective stacks are $100
We decide that our super nit villain has an opening range of KK+ and AK. We decide to flat call because it is in the first 15 minutes of the hour. Don't debate the range it is for educational purposes.
Blinds fold.
Flop is As Kh 9h
This flop hit his range in the sweet spot. Do we want to get it all in here?
I say YES!
There are 16 hand combinations of AK and 6 of KK and 6 of AA.
Of the 28 possible combos in his range you are ahead of 16. That is a bit better than 58%.
Even against this super nitty range you are still ahead on this flop in this spot. Now we have concluded that 58% of the time he has 2 pair and is drawing to 4 outs. If we get it in here he hits his hand 16.5% of the time (9 times out of the 58 )
So it looks like this:
$8.50 in the middle pre-flop.
42 times out of 100 he has a set of Aces of Kings and we need running 9's to win. So lets say we lose 100% of the time. We have $96.50 still in our stack times 42 equals ($4053)
9 times out of 100 he has top 2 pair and boats up before the river. $96.50 X 9 equals ($868.50)
49 times out of 100 our set holds to take the pot so we win the $8.50 in the middle and another $96.50 from his stack. $105 total X 49 equals $5145.
($4053)
($868.50)
$5145
$223.50
You theoretically make $2.23 every time you make this play. This game is rake free obv.
Now if it is profitable to ship here against this guys range on this flop then it is not profitable to fold sets against anyone. Barring a huge pulsating jugular live tell or some shit.
To answer OP's original question. You need to be pretty deep 150BB+ and have a very good read to be folding sets on the flop.
well I guess I have to take this comment back. First time I can recall ever folding a set on the flop. 22 on a flop of 25s10s. MP raises to $10, followed by $50 re-raise. I flat call hoping original short stack raiser will push for final $70. Before it gets to original raiser, another player pushes all-in for another $85. Original raiser folds and $50 dude thinks and pushes for about $350 more. I have them covered. Never seen this guy push before without a very good hand so my gut tells me better set. Let my $50 investment go. Both guys are on a flush draw (great fold ugh). Spade comes on the river giving one guy the K high flush, and other guy hits a straight flush.
As I was reading this I thought that 34s might be out there. Nice fold.
Considering that, and the slight possibility of over-sets, I think I get away from this.
Flop comes 7s8s9s..
you check, mp bets 2/3 the pot and and lp reraises enough to put you basically all in...
I think this is a laydown with one to act behind you who has already shown aggression oop into the pot..
I could be wrong and it is obv situation dependent but I think you should probably fold to pick a better spot in situations like this.