WSOP Step 5 Bubble

GTA Poker

Standard play or is a fold an option given that top 2 advance to step 6?
okerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (3 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button (t6780)
SB (t3880)
GTA (t2840)

Preflop: GTA is BB with A, J.
Button raises to t6755, 1 fold, GTA calls t2515 (All-In).

Flop: (t9320) 6, 5, 8(2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t9320) K(2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t9320) Q(2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t5105

Results in white below:
GTA has As Jc (high card, ace).
Button has Kc 8d (two pair, kings and eights).
Outcome: Button wins t9320.

BlondeFish

What is the prize structure for 1st-3rd? Without going through the Independent Chip Model analysis, my intuition tells me that unless button has been bullying with a huge range, the correct $EV-maximizing play would be to fold AJ if 3rd place gets nothing.

westside8

I believe third gets replay in 5th and top 6 advances to step 6.

Quimby

In the step tourney structure I'd call that every time.

GTA Poker

structure is step 6 for top 2 and third recycles. I know I'm almost certainly leading the button's range, but I'm likely 60/40ish. A double here puts me in a good spot to advance. Easy call in a standard sng, but the structure adds some question for me.

actyper

I would think this structure leads you to call even more. Your way ahead of his range and you are the short stack

SirWatts

I'd def call.

kram7171

That's a call.

BBC Z

Ya, yer 3rd in chips so I don't expect 2nd place to do anything until you do..

I guess you could make a case for stalling and blinding down such that if you make your double up, villian will have to make his on the next hand.. Whereas now your double up gives 2nd place more than enough time to stay alive and get a premium..

GTA Poker

Ok, I agree with the call, but how large would your stack have to be in relation to the sb to consider a fold here?

BBC Z

I think more importantly, it's the delta between your stack and 2nd places' that determines your decision, not your absolute chips..

ryanghall

GTA Poker wrote: »

Ok, I agree with the call, but how large would your stack have to be in relation to the sb to consider a fold here?

Really really really big.

Ryan

BlondeFish

Since everybody else is guessing that the correct play is to call with AJ instead of folding, I did the ICM analysis.
Assumptions:
- Blinds are at 150/300 + 25.
- A Step 6 seat is worth three times more than a Step 5 replay. The entry cost or value of a PokerStars Step 6 seat is $2,100 while the cost/value of a Step 5 seat is $700.

If GTA calls and wins, he takes over the chip lead and gains $393.02 in equity. Calling the all-in and getting eliminated will be devastating and he will lose $664.73 in equity. He needs to have a hand with at least 62.8% equity [$664.73 / ($664.73 + $393.02)] in order to make calling correct.

Unless the button is raising with any two random cards, the correct $EV-maximizing play in this situation is to FOLD! For example, even if the chip leader is very aggressive and will raise all-in with 50% of hands (e.g., T8o+, Q2s+), AJo only has 61.1% equity against that range of hands. If the all-in raiser's range is the top 25% of hands, then one would need AK or JJ+ in order to make calling correct.

BlondeFish wrote: »

Without going through the Independent Chip Model analysis, my intuition tells me that unless button has been bullying with a huge range, the correct $EV-maximizing play would be to fold AJ