Pocket Kings, deep stack, early and some one pushes
I played a live Tournament on the week-end and it was a deep stack. Start chips were 7500 and 30 minutes blinds.
The table was a mix of mostly tight solid players to my right and crazy loose players to my left.
Some of the tight players along with a crazy loose player were discussing a hand with pocket Jacks and if you raised and got smooth called by Kings or Aces from behind and a dry flop came out that it would cost you a lot of money. I made a mental note of this.
Blinds were 50/100 (second level of the tournament) it was folded around to the crazy loose player who was late and he open raised to 600. The cut off and the button fold and I am in the SB with two black Kings.
I figured that I would smooth call; check the flop and then check raise the crazy loose guy to win a nice little pot. I smooth call and the BB folds.
Pot is 1300.
Flop comes 4c-5s-8c. I check. The crazy loose player then says "I'll put you all-in" Which is betting 6900 into a pot of 1300.
What do you do?
The table was a mix of mostly tight solid players to my right and crazy loose players to my left.
Some of the tight players along with a crazy loose player were discussing a hand with pocket Jacks and if you raised and got smooth called by Kings or Aces from behind and a dry flop came out that it would cost you a lot of money. I made a mental note of this.
Blinds were 50/100 (second level of the tournament) it was folded around to the crazy loose player who was late and he open raised to 600. The cut off and the button fold and I am in the SB with two black Kings.
I figured that I would smooth call; check the flop and then check raise the crazy loose guy to win a nice little pot. I smooth call and the BB folds.
Pot is 1300.
Flop comes 4c-5s-8c. I check. The crazy loose player then says "I'll put you all-in" Which is betting 6900 into a pot of 1300.
What do you do?
Comments
Crazy loose player? Hmmm... tempting to call, but hate to put in all the chips when he is prob drawing to a club... Do you have him covered?
No, he has about 9K when the hand started compared to your 7.5K.
Didn't know Slope was playing...CALL CALL CALL!!!
It gives more information, sure, some to him as well, but he's "Crazy loose" so why not let him make as much a mistake as you can? If he 4-bets your pre-flop, well, you may have to give up the cowboys.
As for this flop, given that you've only invested 600 of your 7.5k, I would fold.
Mark
From the limited amount of time I played with him I didn't think that he was the type of player that would steal, especially with a 6x the BB raise. My read was he thought that he had a good hand pre-flop and that was why he raised.
Oops... thought I read blinds 150/300 raise to 600...my bad. But another thing is why would he raise 6x BB if he had a REALLY good hand... he would probably want at least one caller and raise 4x BB. With a raise that big, I agree, a reraise would probably have been best pre-flop.
He's crazy...that is why he would raise 6x the BB.
Deep stack tournament + crazy people = large bets.
Later in this tournament when the blinds were 150-300 with a 25 ante the standard raise was to 2500.
Does anyone agree with me here that the read on a raise with JJ-KK is different then a read when someone has AA?
I once folded JJ to a LAG player, when I was the chip leader in a deep stacked tournament when I just smooth called preflop. Flop came 8 high rainbow. He went all in immediately and I instamucked. He showed bullets.
stp
#1: He tried to steal and hit a club draw and wants to win it there.
#2: He was strong pre-flop (for a maniac AQ?), hit nothing on the flop and is putting you on a weaker hand and this is a continuation bet.
yeah they are rather ridiculously ginormous bets but I'm reading it this way because he's a maniac.
I say he really has it (AA) or he's got AQ of clubs something like that, that would justify (in his mind) a big overbet.
meh, I'm not good like you guys though so I'm talking through my hat here.
I can't wait to read how it plays out.
In my experience this usually means you're behind. However, I can't fold. Call.
stp
The pot odds are 1.2-to-1. If I think that I have over 45% chance of winning the hand, then calling would be +EV.
The likely hands that would be beating me are {AA, 88, 55, 44, 76, 6c5c}. Against that range, there is an 89% probability that I will lose if I make the call with my remaining 6900 chips. Against the remaining range of reasonable raising hands (e.g., other pairs, suited broadway, Ac5c), there is approximately 86% probability that I will win the 8200 chips currently in the pot if I call.
EV = x * (-6900 * 89%) + (1-x) * (+8200 * 86%)
where x is the probability that my opponent has the winning range.
x = 7052 / (7052 + 6141) = 53.45%.
Unless my read on my opponent is that there is more than 53% chance that his hand is beating my KK, then calling would be correct. So, what did the "crazy loose" player have?
He reply was "Call and see."
After talking to him I felt that he wanted to protect his hand with the large bet more then anything else so I called.
He had two black Queens. The board bricked out and I doubled up.
He didn't want me catching up with an Ace, King or club to come out so that is why he pushed.
When I started talking to him it look like he didn't want a call, he had nervousness in his voice and the way he was talking to me, making me think he didn't have a set or Aces.
The way he replied “call and see?” made me pretty sure he didn’t want me to call. Typical Weak means strong, strong means weak.
If I was in his spot and hadn't been called within a few seconds i would assume i had the best hand and be doing anything i could to induce a call
1. He is a "crazy" loose player so you can't give him credit for AA (and you have KK so the probability of him having KK is slim)
2. 2 pair or set doesn't play like this. He would be looking for value. Once again the probability of 2 players in the hand where one flops a flush draw is very slim (the odds open up more in a multiway pot)
3. Your call screams Ace high or overs....not a pocket pair as most people would come out re-popping with JJs+
Well played...
I always look to trap the LAG players as their ranges are always behind mine so I don't mind taking that odd chance to trap and accumulate chips.
So the answer to your question lies in what weight you put on each of those groups of cards. Secondary considerations are do you want a coin flip at this point and if you're out do you have drive 5 hours home or is there a cash game going right now.
I remember that hand! At Shopsy house during the grudge match
Prophet 22
stp
If you're beat - that's poker, but a call here is very +EV against his range.
If he flopped a set on you - he's not moving in, he wants to milk at least another bet out of you. The only hand which he might have is a flush draw, but you're still a good fav.
You need to accumulate chips in a MTT and this is definitely a good spot to do so. You're not winning any MTT by folding your way to the final table.
The best MTT players are not afraid to go broke and almost always have a big stack when they make it deep, giving them the best chance to win - not just make the money.
This would have been a lot more interesting if you had something like 99-JJ, but KK in an easy decision IMO.