15/30 Stars hand

UnknownUnknown
in Online Poker
Any comments appreciated... superj seemed to be loose/aggressive (but not maniacal), and taz9 seemed to be solid.

PokerStars Game #745002455: Hold'em Limit ($15/$30) - 2004/10/05 - 01:26:58 (ET)
Table 'Wotho' Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: superj ($694 in chips)
Seat 2: quantum ($688 in chips)
Seat 3: smiley2 ($1790 in chips)
Seat 4: dnp_now ($141.50 in chips)
Seat 5: TheHawk ($270 in chips)
Seat 6: all aces ($961 in chips)
Seat 7: djordan ($378 in chips)
Seat 8: MomSince78 ($222.50 in chips)
Seat 9: taz9 ($2596.50 in chips)
Seat 10: J-FRANK ($941.50 in chips)
J-FRANK: posts small blind $10
superj: posts big blind $15
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to all aces [Th Kh]
quantum: calls $15
smiley2: folds
dnp_now: folds
TheHawk: folds
all aces: calls $15
djordan: folds
MomSince78: calls $15
taz9: raises $15 to $30
J-FRANK: folds
superj: calls $15
quantum: calls $15
all aces: calls $15
MomSince78: calls $15
*** FLOP *** [Ks 2c Qd]
superj: bets $15
quantum: folds
all aces: calls $15
MomSince78: folds
taz9: raises $15 to $30
superj: calls $15
all aces: calls $15
*** TURN *** [Ks 2c Qd] [Tc]
superj: bets $30
all aces: calls $30
taz9: raises $30 to $60
superj: raises $30 to $90

What would you do here? $430 in the pot so far if my math is correct, and $60 to me to call, so far.

Regards,
all_aces

Comments

  • PhredPhred
    Higher limit than I play, but I would think a fold is in order. I think it likely that another king (possibly wired) is out there in one of the hands, and I would put side action on an AJ showing up, as well. Odds are roughly 7:1, but I think your hand is dominated. What did you do/results?
  • ScottyZScottyZ
    I would fold here.

    I like folding on the flop.

    As the hand went, you've so far got what you described as a solid player raising on every street. Looks to me like KKTT is no good. It's possible that your solid opponent is overplaying AA or AK, but what about the L-A opponent re-raising the turn? Even being L-A, this suggests a lot of strength.

    A non-maniac aggressive player generally likes to bet and raise a lot more than he should, but typically does not care for re-raising. A smart aggressive player knows when to quit trying to push the opponent(s) out of a pot.

    I think a decent aggressive player would put on the breaks against the solid opponent unless he's got something to back up the aggression this particular time.

    Finally, the turn card improves you, but it is incredibly redraw-happy. (Another good reason to fold on the flop. Your 2-pair card, if you do hit it, sets up a good chance that someone picked up a draw at the same time.) You've got the double whammy of your hand possibly not being good, and your opponents having a lot of combined river outs against you in cases where you are lucky enough to be good on the turn.

    ScottyZ
  • ChugsChugs
    Well if i didn't here your analysis of the player style i'm not sure.

    While it is possible SuperJ is playing AJ another possibility is one similar to your own hand, KT or QT. The QT especially plays out with his openning bet and only calling ... but AJ is still a legit worry.

    Really the only hands that taz9 (described to be solid) would likely still be constantly pushing with on every round are AA, AK, KK or QQ. The simple fact is that you can beat the first two and are dominated by the last two.



    My gut says the pot is laying the right odds. Calling the bet on the flop, you hit what i can only consider your near dream card. If not this card what card could you justify betting.
  • sweetjimmisweetjimmi
    I say fold to the first bet on the flop. After the turn though you hit what your looking for so you call the $60. If a J doesn't on the river I would be check calling unless you hit another K then I'm bettting/raising.

    Man, oh man I hate K 10 soooted. I think I play it way to often. Depending on the normal preflop play it may have worth folding (instead of the original call) in mid position preflop as well.
  • IronIron
    I'd also fold. Superj is leading into the pot and reraising on the turn even with the button indicating he's got something pre and post flop, which should indicate a lot of strength depending on how loose/aggressive he is. Both seem to suggest they can beat top pair already, or have top pair and strong draws. I might play it differently heads up, but against 2 bettors I'm not feeling good.

    It's completely possible you have them beat (do they have have something like AA, AK, or AcKc?), but I'd hate to be in the middle of a raising war hoping that your two pair are good. I don't think of it as only $60 to call here... I'm thinking betting might get capped behind you and that you could have to put a lot more in the pot on the river to see it through, which I wouldn't be comfortable with unless another K or T comes up (and there is a good chance your opponents have one or more of these, so I don't know how confident I would be in counting them as "outs"). There are also a lot of horror cards that could come on the river (Q, J, A, 9, any club) even if you are ahead on the turn.
  • UnknownUnknown
    Thanks for the replies! 'In the middle of a raising war' indeed... I don't mind check/calling some hands down, but when WW3 is busting out all around me, it becomes less appealing. The LAG BB worried me. He seemed smart enough to know that he wasn't going to be able to buy this pot uncontested; he'd have to have the best hand at the hand. His turn 3-bet made me think that he thought he had the best hand. The question was: should I trust his judgement?

    Just for fun...

    Exactly what does the solid player on the button have?
    Exactly what does the LAG BB have?

    Cheers,
    all_aces
  • sweetjimmisweetjimmi
    My guess: Button AA or AK (Might even be sooted) and looser player may have AJ (maybe clubs) or KJ of clubs.

    Not exactly picking certain but a small range for each player ;-) Hoping to improve my odds of guessing correctly ;-)
  • IronIron
    here's my guesses:

    solid player on the button - AK (AcKc?) or AA

    looser player - J9, AJ or KcJc?

    Damned if I know...
  • mads777mads777
    personally, from what you've said on the two players,

    I would fold, I think I would have folded after the flop raise by the solid guy as you probably know you are beaten...well I feel that...

    That 10 on the turn is probably the worst card you could wish for giving you the opportunity to loose more money.

    Like some others said, you probablibly have only one out on the river a K and that if no one has KQ.

    But what can I know, 15/30 is maybe way different than 1/2 :)

    and my guess is solid player on the button with AA-QQ, AKs, AK and the LAP on BB with depending if he knows the solid player...KJ, KQ, (maybe he would have re-raise the flop, or is he tricky) also would he bets AJ on that flop?

    Let say AA and Q10, you called to see the river card, you hit your 10 on the river go into a war of re-raising with the LAP and won a big pot! :)
  • ChugsChugs
    if i have to put an exact hand

    The BB: AA
    Loose Agressive: QT
  • ScottyZScottyZ
    LAP: As Ts
    Solid: Kc Qc

    ScottyZ
  • MrBluffsAlotMrBluffsAlot
    I'll take a shot and say........

    Taz9 = A-K (club sooted)
    SuperJ = K-Q

    Well what did they have?
  • UnknownUnknown
    Some very good guesses gentlemen (and ladies, if there are any, but somehow I doubt it....). As it turned out, I was drawing dead to one of the two remaining tens in the deck. As if further turned out, one came, but folding the turn was clearly the right thing to do, and I also agree that folding to the flop raise would have been a good play, as well.

    Table 'Wotho' Seat #9 is the button
    Seat 1: superj ($694 in chips)
    Seat 2: quantum ($688 in chips)
    Seat 3: smiley2 ($1790 in chips)
    Seat 4: dnp_now ($141.50 in chips)
    Seat 5: TheHawk ($270 in chips)
    Seat 6: all aces ($961 in chips)
    Seat 7: djordan ($378 in chips)
    Seat 8: MomSince78 ($222.50 in chips)
    Seat 9: taz9 ($2596.50 in chips)
    Seat 10: J-FRANK ($941.50 in chips)
    J-FRANK: posts small blind $10
    superj: posts big blind $15
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to all aces [Th Kh]
    quantum: calls $15
    smiley2: folds
    dnp_now: folds
    TheHawk: folds
    all aces: calls $15
    djordan: folds
    MomSince78: calls $15
    taz9: raises $15 to $30
    J-FRANK: folds
    superj: calls $15
    quantum: calls $15
    all aces: calls $15
    MomSince78: calls $15
    *** FLOP *** [Ks 2c Qd]
    superj: bets $15
    quantum: folds
    all aces: calls $15
    MomSince78: folds
    taz9: raises $15 to $30
    superj: calls $15
    all aces: calls $15
    *** TURN *** [Ks 2c Qd] [Tc]
    superj: bets $30
    all aces: calls $30
    taz9: raises $30 to $60
    superj: raises $30 to $90
    all aces said, "ok ok"
    all aces: folds
    taz9: calls $30
    *** RIVER *** [Ks 2c Qd Tc] [Ts]
    superj: checks
    taz9: bets $30
    superj: calls $30
    *** SHOW DOWN ***
    taz9: shows [Ac As] (two pair, Aces and Tens)
    superj: mucks hand
    taz9 collected $517 from pot
    *** SUMMARY ***
    Total pot $520 | Rake $3
    Board [Ks 2c Qd Tc Ts]
    Seat 1: superj (big blind) mucked [Kc Qc] - two pair, Kings and Queens
    Seat 2: quantum folded on the Flop
    Seat 3: smiley2 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 4: dnp_now folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 5: TheHawk folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 6: all aces folded on the Turn
    Seat 7: djordan folded before Flop (didn't bet)
    Seat 8: MomSince78 folded on the Flop
    Seat 9: taz9 (button) showed [Ac As] and won ($517) with two pair, Aces
    and Tens
    Seat 10: J-FRANK (small blind) folded before Flop

    Thanks for all the replies,
    all_aces
  • MrBluffsAlotMrBluffsAlot
    Well I guess 1 out of 2 ain't bad. Thats 50% I think? Either way, you were beat.

    Folding on the flop would have been the move. With that 10 on the turn, however, it is tempting to call with amount of money invested. I can recall (not long ago) a wise man once saying......

    "Most importantly, don't be afraid to take reasonable risks... they're necessary in poker." ;)

    That 10 on the river is a stinger, but you did the right thing by folding. Poker hurts sometimes.

    P.S. Thanks for the ear and may the poker gods smile upon us all!
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