The only stupid question is one you don't ask

Juggling manJuggling man
in MTT Strategy
Ok so I'm in this hand with Ac-10d one player limped to my BB and I checked it. The tourney has a rebuy. I just made two bad plays in the past 15 minutes that cost me about half of my stack that had me in the lead by a comfortable margin so I'm sort of rattled and I check the flop (two small clubs and a picture club forget if it's Q or J). I usually check to this guy anyway because I have a pretty solid read on him. He bets me about half my stack. he hit his flush, I know it. That's his style, he likes to win it there. He's got me covered in chips.

What's running through my mind is, knowing he has his flush made but having the draw to the nut flush, should I call, push or fold. I'm ruling out calling because regardless of wether a club comes or not I gotta move in on the turn. So it's either fold or move in. I get to rebuy if I bust but we're roughly halfway into this thing and the blinds are starting to sting a little. If I fold I'm probably about 10% ahead of the rebuy.

Oh, this is a sit and go with 7 players. Nobody's out, however all but three players (including myself) have used their re-buy. One of those players is the guy in this pot with me.

I won't tell you what I did yet.

P.S: I'm not sensitive, I have no delusions of grandeur so no need to go easy on me.

Comments

  • GrahamGraham
    Based on my understanding of everything you said, I would fold... you checked pre-flop, have nothing invested and he way overbet the pot. You could try and bet him off the hand if he holds a low flush and thinks you are better, but he already has the odds to call. You didn't mention blinds... were they a factor? You really only have just over a 20% chance (if that) of winning if he already made the flush. With nothing invested, its an insta-fold IMO. It seems like you have it out for this player. Wait for him to make another play like this when you are in better shape.
  • toronto1968toronto1968
    Three clubs hit the board and you have the Ace of clubs and you put him on a flush and you are thinking of doing what. I hate chasers, so let's do the math, 3 clubs on the board, you are holding 1 and you put him on 2 clubs thats 6 out 13 club cards in play. Assuming no one else at the table folded a club you have 7 outs to hit your flush. It's very simple push all in or fold, by simply calling you are telling him you are on a flush draw, by pushing all in he now has to put you on a hand, if he has the flush well than he calls, but if he doesn't chances are he will fold. So how did the hand play itself out.
  • GrahamGraham
    According to an online odds calculator you are roughly 29% assuming you hit nothing, though I don't see how that is possible? Anyone know why it says 29%? Less than 25% of the cards remaining in the deck are clubs... isn't that his only out at this point assuming the other player made the flush?

    See attached screenshot:
  • HobbesHobbes
    Graham wrote: »
    According to an online odds calculator you are roughly 29% assuming you hit nothing, though I don't see how that is possible? Anyone know why it says 29%?

    It's 29% because you have 2 chances to hit your 7 outs.
  • compueasecompuease Admin
    Graham wrote: »
    According to an online odds calculator you are roughly 29% assuming you hit nothing, though I don't see how that is possible? Anyone know why it says 29%? Less than 25% of the cards remaining in the deck are clubs... isn't that his only out at this point assuming the other player made the flush?

    See attached screenshot:

    There are 52 - 3 card flop - your 2 - his 2 = 45 unknown cards. 7 left to make flush, so 7/45 to make it on the turn, now we have 44 unknowns, so 7 out of 44 to make it on river, total % to make your flush is 7/45 + 7/44 = roughly 30% since I don't have a calculator handy. I think to calculate roughly you take your outs and multiply by 2 for each card to come. That would make it 28%, close enough. Where's Buddy when you need him.. lol
  • HobbesHobbes
    compuease wrote: »
    I think to calculate roughly you take your outs and multiply by 2 for each card to come. That would make it 28%, close enough.

    That's right Compuease. Rule of 2 and 4 gives a close enough approx
  • GrahamGraham
    compuease wrote: »
    There are 52 - 3 card flop - your 2 - his 2 = 45 unknown cards. 7 left to make flush, so 7/45 to make it on the turn, now we have 44 unknowns, so 7 out of 44 to make it on river, total % to make your flush is 7/45 + 7/44 = roughly 30% since I don't have a calculator handy. I think to calculate roughly you take your outs and multiply by 2 for each card to come. That would make it 28%, close enough. Where's Buddy when you need him.. lol

    Ahh, makes sense when you break it down like that, but when you think about it logically it doesn't really make sense. Thanks Jeff!
  • Juggling manJuggling man
    Graham's got it pretty much on the dot (no the blinds were not yet big enough to be much of a factor). The 2 bad plays I reffered to were precisely that. I called when I knew I was beat just because I didn't want to get moved off the hand.

    I was aware of the bad odds but figured I'd gamble because of the re-buy. I pushed and missed. I never recovered psychologically from what I knew were bad plays.

    It's a hole in my game that became more evident to me on this hand, especially after your comments. I read opponents fairly well but lack the guts to follow my read and make the lay down.

    thanks for taking the time to give a novice some advice. :)
  • JimmyHoJimmyHo
    I think they missed the point of your post; I think it more has to do with the rebuy situation than the actual odds to call. That is a pure mathematics while having the option to rebuy may make it a different scenerio. Wasn't that you were try to figure out initially?
  • Juggling manJuggling man
    having the option to rebuy may make it a different scenerio.

    Yes that definitely made me think longer than usual about that sort of hand. First time I played re-buy. Was difficult to decide if, being just a tad ahead of the re-buy, it made sense to gamble in that situation. Risk to reward type of thing. If I hit it gave me a pretty comfortable stack if I don't hit well, technically, I don't lose my whole stack, only about 10% of it because of the re-buy thing. If I had been behind the re-buy I think I would've pushed instantly and if I lost the pot I actually would be getting ahead chip-wise. But being just slightly above the re-buy made the decision tough for me.

    I suppose my question is: How should the re-buy option affect my decision in this situation?
  • BBC ZBBC Z
    Anyone know why it says 29%?

    Yikes.......
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