Raise Pot or All-In - what's your move
How is the best way to deal with a player that is on a flush or straight draw on the flop. If you know the player will call any bet (i.e. will chase their hand down to the river), is it better to go all-in on the flop or make a pot size bet on the flop and turn. The pot size bet is to allow you to get away from the hand if the other player happens to hit.
For example: the flop comes 26J with two hearts and there is a $150 in the pot and you have two pair. The other player has AKh and both players have $500 behind. If you know this player will call an all-in bet on the flop, is it better to make a pot size bet of $150 on the flop and if a heart does not come on the turn, you bet the remaining $350 (vs all-in pre-turn). That way if a third heart comes on the turn, you can still get away from the hand and save your remaining $350.
Just wondering what other players typically do in this situation. I typically get all my money in the middle on the flop knowing that I am ahead and this does not give the other player proper odds to chase. I would rather take the pot down now and/or have the player call behind. Waiting to the turn gives the other player better odds, but at least you now have the option to fold on the turn. It now cost the other player $350 into a $800 pot which is improved odds vs the all-in on the flop.
Any thoughts?
For example: the flop comes 26J with two hearts and there is a $150 in the pot and you have two pair. The other player has AKh and both players have $500 behind. If you know this player will call an all-in bet on the flop, is it better to make a pot size bet of $150 on the flop and if a heart does not come on the turn, you bet the remaining $350 (vs all-in pre-turn). That way if a third heart comes on the turn, you can still get away from the hand and save your remaining $350.
Just wondering what other players typically do in this situation. I typically get all my money in the middle on the flop knowing that I am ahead and this does not give the other player proper odds to chase. I would rather take the pot down now and/or have the player call behind. Waiting to the turn gives the other player better odds, but at least you now have the option to fold on the turn. It now cost the other player $350 into a $800 pot which is improved odds vs the all-in on the flop.
Any thoughts?
Comments
- you never know his exact hand.
- you are making alot of assumptions as to how he will respond which may or may not be true.
- are his A and K clean outs or do you have AA, KK or a set?
If he needs to hit his flush inorder to win (ie: you have a set or AA) I would bet $125 on the flop to make the pot $400 after his call and then shove my remaining $375 in the middle on the turn if the draw doesn't hit.
This way you risk the $375 when he only has one street left to draw out on you.
If he's going to call an allin anyway, why not make him pay for it??
that is the question. You get better odds going all-in on the flop but give up the option of getting out of the hand on the turn.
Typically you have a 65/35 chance of winning the hand on the flop, vs 80/20 on the turn when the flush doesn't come on the turn. Although the player is now gettng better pot odds on the turn
Assuming he even knows about pot odds. Most players that chase too much have no clue what you mean by pot odds, they just see a chance at a big hand and gamble with it.
Basically, if your in a pot with someone that plays very loose, aggressive ( LAG ) then make him pay for what he's chasing. Moving ALL-IN will jus make it harder for him to fold when there's alot of money in the pot.
If it's a cash game.. yea... push and stack play. Tournament, I don't want to necessarily go completely broke.
Mark
cash game is what I am talking about. Why not wait until the turn to get your chips in so you have an out with some money still behind?
Mark
you KNOW you're ahead and he's chasing?
you KNOW he'll call ANY amount on the flop or turn BUT fold the river if he misses?
then WHY would you put a nickle in on the flop? wait and push on a safe turn. do the math. it is very trivial.
the problem usually is you don't KNOW what you think you KNOW... besides it's all luck anyway.
i would charge him for some value, but i would never pot it.
reason:
1. he ain't folding, make him pay some value, but not gonna hurt your, when he hit on turn or river.
2. say you push, he fold, you didn't maximize your value. -EV
3. you only have two pair, aren't you overvalue your hand strength by going all-in? -EV
4. against donky like me, i would never call your push with flush draw. but if you pot it to me, I WILL put you to da test.
can you call my push? knowing i do not stack off light (set + )
Given the assumption that the villain is a :fish: who will call a $500 all-in on the turn to chase the flush despite getting only 1.3-to-1 pot odds, then pkrfce9 is correct that you might as well check the flop then go all-in on a safe turn.
Assuming that the villain will fold to a $500 all-in bet on the turn if he doesn't hit a flush, then the question is if it is better to go all-in or bet the pot on the flop. The answer is
IT DEPENDS on the stack sizes.
I'll skip posting the EV computations (unless somebody wants me to), but for $500 stacks,
EV (going all-in on flop) = +$259
while the
EV (making a $150 value bet on flop) = +$330.
So for $500 stacks, it is better to make a value bet on the flop, then go all-in on the turn if the flush misses.
If the remaining stacks are both at least $722, then it is better to go all-in on the flop.
EV ($800 all-in on flop) = +$355.
With deeper stacks, the made hand wants to get all the money in because of its significant equity advantage, while with shallower stacks it prefers to push the draw out of the pot on favourable streets.
(Stack) SIZE DOES MATTER!
Blondefish, I would be interested to see this analysis and understand why pushing on the flop makes more sense with the $707 stack. I think it would be very useful to some forum members as you seem to be the first person to differentiate between stack sizes when making this decision. Some great analysis (as usual)!
this player is going to call you no matter what. This is the assumption. How can you be overvaluing your hand when the only thing you have to worry about is the flush? I guess runner, runner trips is always possible but very rare in this situation.
when you have so much edge over the donking fish, why gamble, when you can slowly make them bleed.
also, when they hit that flush, it may set you on tilt, and lose more money.
I will change pokerJAH's example slightly for purposes of illustration. Let's assume that pokerJAH (player J) has Js-6d and he knows that the villain (player V) has soooted hearts, e.g., Th-5h.
:js :6d
:10h :5h
On a flop of
:2s :6h :jh
J's two pair will win approximately 66% of the time against the flush draw.
With $150 in the pot and $500 remaining stacks, the EV of J going all-in on the flop is
<J, jam $500> = (probability of J winning) * (new pot size) - (cost of action)
= 0.66 * ($500 * 2 + $150) - $500
= +$259
So the EV of jamming right away on the flop is +$259.
There are nine hearts left among the 45 unknown cards, so the chances of player V catching a flush on the turn is 9/45. The EV of J betting $150 instead on the flop with villain calling is
<J, $150 on flop> = (probability of flush on turn then J will fold) * (cost of action on flop) + (probability of non-flush then V will fold) * (pot value)
= 9/45 * -$150 + 36/45 * +$450
= -$30 + $360
= +$330
If the flush does not hit on the turn, J goes all-in for his remaining $350 and V will fold because he is not getting the proper pot odds to call (20% chance of sucking out a heart of the river but it will cost him 30% of the total pot). J will win the pot of $450. If one of the nine hearts hits on the turn, V can bet enough so that J will not have the proper pot odds to chase a full house (9% chance); in this case, J folds and loses his $150 bet from the flop. So J's EV of betting the pot on the flop is +$330, which is higher than going all-in on the flop.
With bigger stacks of $800, the EV of going all in on the flop is
<J, jam $800> = (probability of J winning) * (new pot size) - (cost of action)
= 0.66 * ($800 * 2 + $150) - $800
= +$355
The EV of betting the pot on the flop remains at $330, no matter how much more than $500 you have behind. When the stacks are big enough, it is better to go all-in than to bet a lower amount ($355 > $330) if you know that the villain will call any amount on the flop.
To find out the cut-off stack "x" for this example, this is the equation:
$330 = 0.66 * (2 * x + $150) - x
330 = 1.32 * x + 99 - x
330 - 99 = x * (1.32 - 1)
231 = x * 0.32
231 / 0.32 = x
x = $721.88
So given the assumptions in this example, with a stack size of $722 or more, it is better to go all-in on the flop with a made hand against the draw. Unfortunately, poker is a game of imperfect information where you don't know what the player's cards are or what he will do, so figuring out what the optimal play is even harder than the above analysis.
The important point is that as two-time WSOP bracelet winner Bill Chen writes:
"Stack size is of critical importance in big bet poker; even with the cards face-up, changing the stacks changes the nature of the play drastically."
Blondie, why the assumption the villain will fold on the turn? There was nothing in the OP about a possibility of folding on the turn.
Seriously, pkrfce9 gave the optimal play assuming the villain is so bad that he will never fold to an all-in except on the river. The next question for me was what is the better play under the more common scenario where the villain is capable of folding on the turn.
this guy would never fold on the turn; this is a given as I noted earlier.
How would you analysis change if V would still call on the turn. What would be the optimal bet on the flop vs turn given the call on the turn as guaranteed?
In the real world, making a value bet against a calling station's unknown cards is usually much better than giving a free card. I am going to be horrified if pokerJAH checks the flop from now on, then goes all-in on the turn. :eek:
I agree as with more of their money in the pot, they will feel more committed to call on the turn vs a free card where they may back down.
You don't actually want your opponent to be committed such that he has the proper pot odds to call on the turn. In your example, if your opponent only has $250 left, you bet $150 on the flop and he calls, then it would be correct and profitable for him to call off his remaining $100 on the turn to chase the flush. Again, no limit strategy changes drastically depending on the sizes of the stacks.