Bubble
(Title is a brain fart... should read bubble not button lol)
I have a scenario I'd like to pole some opinions on. I'm not sure yet of the proper format for posting this stuff so I'll just write what makes sense.
-32 person Live NL Holdem tournament, 5 places pay out
-6 people left
-500/1000 blinds
-average stack 8,000~10,000
-1st position raises to just 2,000 total
-2nd position folds
-you look down and see 9 9
-you have about 8,000 in chips
-your read says 90% sure he will call your all in move and it's at best a race
-you also think big blind may call your all in and my be raising without you (60~70%)
-both players have you covered
It is bubble time. The blinds will likely make it to you while still 500/1000.
What would you do?
I have a scenario I'd like to pole some opinions on. I'm not sure yet of the proper format for posting this stuff so I'll just write what makes sense.
-32 person Live NL Holdem tournament, 5 places pay out
-6 people left
-500/1000 blinds
-average stack 8,000~10,000
-1st position raises to just 2,000 total
-2nd position folds
-you look down and see 9 9
-you have about 8,000 in chips
-your read says 90% sure he will call your all in move and it's at best a race
-you also think big blind may call your all in and my be raising without you (60~70%)
-both players have you covered
It is bubble time. The blinds will likely make it to you while still 500/1000.
What would you do?
Comments
Trusting the read I have, if I'm that sure its a race and my opponent is going to call me, I would hesitate pushing all in here. I'm short stacked, but I don't mind my chip stack right now, still got some play left. The problem is do I think I can wait for a better starting hand to get my money in on then middle pockets? Hmmmmm...
The gambler in me says push in now, and take the ride as it comes. The accountant in me says fold and wait, its the bubble and you still have fold equity and who knows...someone else might bust out putting you in the money.
Decisions Decisions.
Fuck it...PUSH!!!
Ok so it depends;
1) 90% sure he will call your AI and at best it is a race? Then umm fold.
2)Will you have better opportunities to put your chips in? Probably - fold
3) You have a guy who is going to defend his BB light but probably makes a coinflip two headed against you, at best just 1.5 if they share a card ie AK - KQ -fold
-- plus you have no idea what the SB may do
4) If your pretty sure you can get 3 way into the flop for 20% of your stack and get set mining odds to stack either you can make an arguement to call... but it is a weak arguement
So I think I would fold here, based on the information you gave.
As for the thread itself... that close to the money I would have to say fold based on the information you provided (esp. that the person will most likely call). If you think that, then chances are its either A: a cointoss or B: you are going in the dog. Sure you can take a chance, but you still have quite a bit of time before the blinds run out, and chances are you will get a better chance to push and by that point may already be ITM.
1) Push, because I leak in this spot every time.
2) Throw up on the table when they turn over KK.
3) Complain that I always bubble.
-You've established he's not a great player but not a retard.
-he is an honest player
-you aren't sure he's smart enough to know how fishy his raise is in that position
-You don't think he's smart enough to fold to a reraise if he has A 10 offsuit but he's smart enough to have at least that (you won't be going against A 7).
-He's not twitching in his chair like he has AA or KK either.
-you put him on AK to A10
-Big blind is focused on his chips and looking like he wants to raise or at least represent that he intends to
-you aren't sure how good this player is yet
If I want to get deep in the money I'll have to get some more chips at some point.... but it's the bubble and I'm not desperate yet.
I'll update with what happened in a little while.
How deep is the pay out structure? Is it worth it to try and squeeze into the money or is it extremely top heavy?
Do you want to win or do you want to make it into the money?
With out this info I agree with Redington here and will most likely fold.
If you put him on AT-AK and never a higher pair then shove.
Not sure how you can come up with that specific a range for him though.
The only time I would fold at this point in the tournament is if Position 2 would have re-raised.
Only BB looks to be raising. He has about 10k and UTG has maybe 12k.
"How deep is the pay out structure? Is it worth it to try and squeeze into the money or is it extremely top heavy?"
1st $600
2nd $400
3rd $250
4th $200
5th $100
"Do you want to win or do you want to make it into the money?"
Yes
"Not sure how you can come up with that specific a range for him though."
Well having to type it here rather then shoot the shit in person limits things a bit. But I have been playing with him for a good 3 hours. He respects me and doesn't seem to value low pairs. He likely won't have less then A 10 kicker because I got him in an earlier situation where I got him to call my all in with my KK to his A 7. I doubt he'd do it twice. Funny... I knocked him down to one 100 chip on that hand plus his small blind. I have seen him with a high pair and he's not quite acting the same. There are a number of things that happened that night that led me to put him on A 10 to A K.
BB did move all in and UTG did call.
BB turned over K 8 suited looking a little upset that his bluff was called. I guess all that posturing was to convince UTG that he had a hand and scare him off.
UTG turned over A 10 suited.
BB went out on the bubble.
So I doubt BB would have called my all in raise seeing his cards. It would have then been a coin flip with my ass on the line on the bubble.
Now I would have ended up with a full house and won the pot which made me regret the fold and question whether I chickened out or not.
This was one of the toughest decisions I have made in a while and just wanted to see how some of you might have played it and why.
I ended up going out in 4th as the cards dried up.... so I won $200 and lost my chance to go deeper with that decision.
Thats the reason that I would call. In any situation I'm playing to win the tournament, and if I get bubbled then I get bubbled, but I try and accumulate chips as much as I can.
This isn't a Calling situation...you only have two choices...PUSH OR FOLD...there is no Call here.
Thats what I meant to put, as you can tell by my first post in the thread. my fingers were moving faster then I was thinking.