Tricky Sattelite Bubble Hand

MonteroyMonteroy
in Online Poker
Sorry, for some reason I did not get the chip stacks when I did a cut and paste (Crypto has no email hand history option).

Basic situation - 5 seat sattelite to the weekly $220 tourney on Sunday, 6 of us left. I have the 5th highest stack at 1700ish chips and am in the small blind.

The short stack is the big blind with 805.

Blinds are 150/300

Other players have 8000, 6000, 4000 and 3500 or so.


Hand is fairly simple

dealt to Monteroy [Qc 7h]
7878: folds
vatoloco!: folds
blakkat: folds
carfund: folds
Monteroy: raises to 1500
dokey1: is all-in 505
Returned uncalled bets 695 to Monteroy
FLOP
[Kh 7d 3s]
TURN
[Kh 7d 3s][7c]
RIVER
[Kh 7d 3s 7c][9c]
SHOW DOWN
Monteroy: shows [Qc 7h] (Three of a kind, Sevens, King high)
dokey1: shows [Ac 9s] (Two Pairs, Nines and Sevens, Ace high)
Monteroy collected 1610 from Main pot


I got a bit lucky, and while I would not have minded if one of the other players raised (so I could fold), I admit I was not sure quite what to do here given the situation/chip stacks.

It was hard for me to see the BB folding, especially since beating me is exactly what he needs, however folding seems kind of horrid as well.

The fact my hand was Q7 off which I think (Correct me if I am wrong) is considered the exact mid point of hands vs any 2 unknown cards made me chuckle a bit.

So, what would everyone else do in this situation?


Edit: Just adding that the play was fairly timid from all the players, even the fellow with 8,000 stack (which surprised me). If I had the 8,000 stack I would be shoving in situations like this to constantly steal extra blinds.

Comments

  • westside8westside8
    Personally I don't mind it. I'll let moose/BlondeFish do the whole mathematically analysis with equity and what not, but personally I probably would've done the same.
  • RedingtonRedington
    You have no chance of him folding; so you look at random cards and q7 is better then 50%. So definitely have the odds to call.

    However, your stack is useless if you lose the flip.

    Your going to be sticking it within 9 more hands anyways. And you lose any fold equity if you lose so the value of your hand will have to be much greater with half your stack in those 9 hands.

    If you do win, your still under ten BB and will have to push. You will be getting roughly the same fold equity with either stack so you dont add much to your position.

    I favor a fold, but mathematically on the original move your fine.
  • SirWattsSirWatts
    Yeah don't see how you could do anything else.
  • SirWattsSirWatts
    Unless the other guys are constantly trying to give away their stacks or something I guess, you're giving away so much in chip EV by folding. As played you still have a decent chance if you lose, on top of the ~50% chance to end it this hand.
  • actyperactyper
    Monteroy wrote: »
    Edit: Just adding that the play was fairly timid from all the players, even the fellow with 8,000 stack (which surprised me). If I had the 8,000 stack I would be shoving in situations like this to constantly steal extra blinds.

    No need for the big stack to get involved and add chips to his stack since there is no difference between 1st and 5th.
  • MonteroyMonteroy
    I am not suggesting he play every hand and call all ins for 4000 with 2 7 off. However he certainly could have raised the blinds of the 3000ish stacks to 3BB and gotten them to fold nearly everything while accumulating his chips to say 10k which gives him extra breathing room in case a sequence of odd hands happen (ie: he gets AA twice and loses twice all in preflop).

    He was the second to act in this hand, so I agree he has nothing to really gain by raising with junk vs the tiny stack in the BB who likely will not fold (though he may fold to other players instead of me hoping somehow he survives).
  • cadillaccadillac
    Monteroy wrote: »
    Edit: Just adding that the play was fairly timid from all the players, even the fellow with 8,000 stack (which surprised me). If I had the 8,000 stack I would be shoving in situations like this to constantly steal extra blinds.

    Big stack does not need to get involved. One of the shorties will surely bust before he ever needs to get involved so he is damn fool if he even gets involved with anything other than a super premium hand or if a shortie shoves into his BB and he is getting great odds.


    Q8 is the computer hand so Q7 is close enough and your play is correct in this hand.


    Good luck in the tourney!
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