What would you do in this situation?

Josh FP

I dont have the actual hand history with me here at work so I'm just typing it out from memory,Overall I think i played this very poorly. This is all at a full 9 handed $0.50 - $1 NL game on stars.

I'm in late position with about $60.
2 Limp before me (mid stacks $25 - $40) , I limp in with A3c.
SB Folds, BB (about $80) raises to $3.
1 Caller, Myself and the BB see the flop.

I guess I could've just folded preflop, but most preflop raises were about $4 - $5 so I thought i'd try to hit a good flop, or get out.

The flop comes down: Ah 2C 4C and there is about $11 in the pot.

The BB comes out and bets $4 and its folded to me. With Top pair (no kicker), straight draw, nut flush draw I raise to $10 thinking I can maybe win it there if he doesnt have an Ace or if Called I still have a good drawing hand.
He just calls.

Now there is about $30 in the pot. I think he has an Ace with a kicker, anything from A9-AK.I am definately not putting him on 22 or 44 as I've played with this player before and he rarely raises with small pocket pairs, and I've never seen him do it from the blinds.

Now the Turn comes Ad and he bets out the pot.

If I call this bet i'd only have about $16 or so left So I dont see that as an option, If I raise my last $16 I am certain I will get called.

My Thinking was that even if he does have an Ace with a good kicker I have some outs.

3x 5, giving me the wheel.
3x 3, giving me the full house
9x Clubs, giving me the nut flush

and

3x 2, giving us the same full house to chop
3x 4, giving us teh same full house to chop

Of course, if he did happen to have 22 or 44 I'd be drawing very very thin.

What would you guys do?

BBC Z

Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing 4c 2c Ad Ah
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 3c 14 31.82 24 54.55 6 13.64 0.386
As Kh 24 54.55 14 31.82 6 13.64 0.614

Tough situation.. I really don't know what I would do.. (well I know what I would do but I dont think its correct)..

Josh FP

BBC Z wrote:

Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing 4c 2c Ad Ah
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 3c 14 31.82 24 54.55 6 13.64 0.386
As Kh 24 54.55 14 31.82 6 13.64 0.614

Tough situation.. I really don't know what I would do.. (well I know what I would do but I dont think its correct)..

Well, what do you think? the pot isnt that big and at this point I've only invested about $13

BBC Z

Josh FP wrote:

Well, what do you think? the pot isnt that big and at this point I've only invested about $13

I'd go broke. I think situations like that are the reason I'm a better at limit than at NL..

But chasing a draw at the turn to the river when facing a pot sized bet in NL probably isn't the right thing to do..

Josh FP

I think I could've done a few things different

1: Not been in the hand, this would've been smart probably.
2: Raised more on the flop, Im thinking a raise to 16 or 20 which would pretty much make me pot commited to the hand though. However at this point, I am a 55:45 favorite over any single pair.

anyone else have thoughts?

Unknown

As BBC pointed out, this is a tough situation. If, on the turn, you can absolutely put him on a better ace than you, then you should fold... The twodimes calculations tell us that this is true. However, are you sure he has a better ace than you? Why wouldn't he re-raise you on the flop? I don't get him just calling your raise on the flop, and then firing at the turn when another ace hits. He either has the ace or he doesn't... the turn doesn't change that.

It's a strange way to play a hand like AK... the flop is very draw-heavy, so why wouldn't he re-raise the flop? Maybe the second ace on the turn made him think that you don't have an ace in your hand, and he has pocket queens, jacks, etc.. These pocket pairs would be consistent with his preflop raise, his 'just calling' the flop raise, and then firing a bet on the turn when his hand improves to 2 pair. He may have you just on a draw, which explains why he'd make that turn bet.

The more I think about it, the more I'd recommend calling, but I have been wrong in the past, and I may very well be wrong about this, too...

Regards,
all_aces

Josh FP

It was definately a tough decisions. I took alot of factors in when making my decision. His small raise preflop and bet on the flop said pocket pair to me, anything from 77-JJ. I'd expect a little bigger raise with QQ,KK,AA.

On the flop, he bets out $4. This bet seemed like a feeler bet to me, that he could easily make with a pocket pair, when I raised him back and he only called I was very confused. On such a draw heavy board, I thought he'd raise back here with AJ,AQ, AK.

I think raising to 16 or 20 might have been better in this situation. If he raised me back there I probably would have gone all in, as I was currently a favorite over any single pair.

When the Turn came the Ad and he came out and bet the pot I had to stop and think for a bit. He definately seemed like the type of player who would try this move with a pocket pair thinking I didnt have an Ace, so I took that into consideration.

Also, If he hadnt filled up on the turn (22,44,A4,A2) I thought I still had 15 live outs. That'd give me 29:15 odds for drawing, which (i think) is *barely* good enough to call a pot sized bet on the turn.

Taking everything in to account, and the fact that I thought he could easily be making a move on me I decided to just reraise my last $15 and go all in.

The river was a random card that didnt help me and he did in fact have AQ.

Unknown

The river was a random card that didnt help me and he did in fact have AQ.

Damn. I was wrong. Well, if it's any consolation, that is one bizarre way to play AQ on that flop. I suspect that if you play with him on a regular basis, you'll come out ahead more often than not.

Regards,
all_aces